Probably stupid query about Avalon...

saladfingers

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Feb 1, 2007
Location
UK
Warning - stupid question alert - but I can't really get my head around this, probably because I was rubbish at maths and probability and all that at school...

Say, on average, you hit the feature on Avalon around every 250 spins, or something around that figure.

I've recently had two sessions on Avalon, and am up to about 200 very expensive spins with no feature. The question is - each time I log off the casino, and log back on again to start a new session, is the counter being reset? Or is it all still random?

Am I more likely to hit the feature if I play 250 spins in one sitting without logging off than I would be doing the same number of spins over several sessions?

Either way, should I give in to my temptation to go back again and chase those losses based on the fact that I'm 'due' a set of free spins, or do the sensible thing and uninstall every casino I have on my PC... :)

Thanks !
 

Simmo!

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Warning - stupid question alert - but I can't really get my head around this, probably because I was rubbish at maths and probability and all that at school...

Say, on average, you hit the feature on Avalon around every 250 spins, or something around that figure.

I've recently had two sessions on Avalon, and am up to about 200 very expensive spins with no feature. The question is - each time I log off the casino, and log back on again to start a new session, is the counter being reset? Or is it all still random?

Am I more likely to hit the feature if I play 250 spins in one sitting without logging off than I would be doing the same number of spins over several sessions?

Either way, should I give in to my temptation to go back again and chase those losses based on the fact that I'm 'due' a set of free spins, or do the sensible thing and uninstall every casino I have on my PC... :)

Thanks !

a) it should (in theory) be totally random. It certainly won't "count" the spins between as that would be anti-random!

b) Don't chase. best thing to do on this slot I find is to increase the bet every 50 spins. $1, $2 etc. The bonus can pay out quite big, although it keeps you going imbetween. I normally see a 50%-75% return on a set of 50 "normal" spins, but you'd be unlucky but to get 40x in the bonus round.
 

andi

andi
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May 4, 2006
Location
Canada
Once you exit that game and return your spin counter starts all over again.
When I play Avalon, my best luck getting the free spins is at a lower bet (40-80 cents) If I do get the spins then I slightly raise my bet after the bonus. I hardly ever have got them at Max bet, be patient...you may surprised how great the bonuses are at a lower value.
Just my 2 cents!
Good Luck.....:thumbsup:
 

saladfingers

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Location
UK
thanks! Don't those two replies disagree with each other though? Is there a definitive answer to the 'resetting' idea?
 

KasinoKing

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thanks! Don't those two replies disagree with each other though?
Is there a definitive answer to the 'resetting' idea?
Yes they do. (disagree with each other).
If you believe the 'resetting' thing, then you are saying the casinos are rigged.
If you believe the casinos are rigged - stay far, far away! :eek2:

I personally believe MG slots to be completely random (except the AWP crap), you have an equal chance of the bonus round on each & every spin.

I use the 'Simmo method' of increasing bets as I go along in the hope that I'll get the features the average amount of times.
But that's all it is - hope. There's no guarantees.
I've hit features on my first spin, and on my 400th spin.
But overall I'm happy I get them the average number of times.

BTW, I guess (and that's all it is) that the chance of the feature on Avalon is around 1 in 150 - 180 spins.

KK
 

Avatar73

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Apr 15, 2007
Location
UK
Warning - stupid question alert - but I can't really get my head around this, probably because I was rubbish at maths and probability and all that at school...
Yes it is a stupid question...... but of course, only if you know the answer! ;)

KK said it all above really.

I think it may be helpful to consider this:

You play Multi-player BJ by yourself.
You start, and expect to win a bit/lose a bit.
You lose 10 in a row. Now, you MAY be thinking "gosh darn, there has to be a nice winning streak coming up!"
But then someone else comes along.
He is starting, and expecting to win a bit/lose a bit.
But hey, you are thinking that there will be a big winning streak!?

So who is right? Well, the new person of course. Each hand is theoretically completely independant.
Also consider it in reverse... say you win loads and someone joins. You expect there to be a losing run, he expects an average run. Again, theoretically the past doesn't matter.

So the same with slots. The past doesn't matter. Every spin has 1 in X chance of the bonus, regardless of how many have gone before, how long the session is, whether you visited the bank, whether you sneezed and didn't blow your nose (eww!) etc etc. Of course having said that, you would be unlucky to go 1k spins without hitting! The probability of not hitting in a large number of spins is low.

Ok, I agree that's not perfect, but you get the idea! Or hopefully it helps :cool:
 

vinylweatherman

You type well loads
Joined
Oct 14, 2004
Location
United Kingdom
Lucky Soap.

Have you tried lucky casino soap?

Best results are obtained by washing your hands with it before a session, paying particular attention to your mouse hand. For added benefits, wash your face also (unless you play blindfold or autoplay).

As soon as the slot goes more than 200 spins without a feature, log out, wash again, and start again with fresh smelling casino hands:D

I have run experiments with this over the last couple of months, and it seems particularly effective on Thunderstruck with bets between 0.18 and 0.45 per spin.

The next step would be to enter a big tournament, such as the Royal Vegas $10,000 weekender, and have a bath using lucky soap before playing.:p
 

saladfingers

Meister Member
Joined
Feb 1, 2007
Location
UK
OK - thanks guys - much appreciated, think I've got it now! Anyway, I'm off for a good old wash...
:)
 

vinylweatherman

You type well loads
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Oct 14, 2004
Location
United Kingdom
You mean the $120 entry fee one Vinyl??? :D

Considering you would almost certainly have to use all the continues, its getting pretty expensive to enter.
it's only $100 for me as I won a satellite:D

There is certainly a need for MG to come clean about how much they are REALLY making on these, to be fair to players, they should not be keeping more than 5% of all entry and rebuy fees, as this is the accepted edge on normal slots.
While a $10,000 pool, if every player uses, say, $100, they would break even on a mere 100 entrants, more than 150 and they are making an unreasonably excessive profit without it being clear to players.
A fairer approach, mentioned before, would be to boost the pool as more players feed money into the tournament, with prizes being shown as a percentage of the final pool, the casino keeping its 5% as profit for running the event.
With eCogra now starting a service to evaluate the fairness of the games, perhaps they should force publication separately of the net payback from all the MG multiplayer tournaments so that we can see that fair play is taking place.
 

tennis_balls

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Mar 18, 2006
Location
Albuquerque, NM
A fairer approach, mentioned before, would be to boost the pool as more players feed money into the tournament, with prizes being shown as a percentage of the final pool, the casino keeping its 5% as profit for running the event.
what if they put a cap on the number of spins per player? wouldn't that be "fairer"?
 

Simmo!

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Location
England
I use the 'Simmo method' of increasing bets as I go along in the hope that I'll get the features the average amount of times.
But that's all it is - hope. There's no guarantees.
As documented here:
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
( Forgive the HTML title...you'll never win at slots in the long term without a mega-jackpot to help :D )
 

aka23

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Joined
Jun 12, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
Warning - stupid question alert - but I can't really get my head around this, probably because I was rubbish at maths and probability and all that at school...

Say, on average, you hit the feature on Avalon around every 250 spins, or something around that figure.

I've recently had two sessions on Avalon, and am up to about 200 very expensive spins with no feature. The question is - each time I log off the casino, and log back on again to start a new session, is the counter being reset? Or is it all still random?

Am I more likely to hit the feature if I play 250 spins in one sitting without logging off than I would be doing the same number of spins over several sessions?

Either way, should I give in to my temptation to go back again and chase those losses based on the fact that I'm 'due' a set of free spins, or do the sensible thing and uninstall every casino I have on my PC... :)

Thanks !
If the game is truly random, you should have the same chance of hitting a bonus round after 1000 spins without a bonus as you do on your first spin after a bonus round. Logging on and off the casino should not have an influence.
 

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