Predicting random

[brutaldeluxe]

Haha yeah if you haven't played caesar's palace or one of many similar machines like hotshot, force 10, kung fu, wild west etc it'll seem like gibberish but it does make sense. I can still remember on the middle reel the blue seven with the 2 on it is four away from the double bar (the double bar is 8 away from the pear with the 4). You'd often try and get the blue seven 2 to drop in leaving the double bar four away. On the third reel the boxed cherry with the 1 has a treble one above it or the unboxed cherry with the 1 has the boxed treble one above it or the boxed plus with the 2 has the boxed treble 4 above it. These are the numbers you would try and manipulate on the third reel. The boxed treble could be useful for bringing in a mystery win with barcode close and swapping back to nudges. You might be able to bring in boxed single, boxed plum(double two away) and boxed treble leaving the single-double-treble barcode only two away and that's the good barcode with roman reels, you can get a JP without it being super.
You'd do that if you got a bad number on the hi-lo etc. There's other mystery wins which leave barcode close as well of course.
Learning how to manipulate the reels was a big part of playing it but it wasn't the only required skill, there was a little more to it than that.
Caesar's palace was great cos you couldn't get "lucky" on it the way you could on others and win a fortune. You had to consistently know exactly what you were doing to make cash from it, your average joe-public pretty much had no chance. You weren't getting jackpot with 3 repeats the way you would on barcrests and others. It could be a seriously frustrating machine at times but definitely one of my favourites.

 

[AudiManinBoro]

I agree with the maths of the things and with al your calculations, and if it was truly random as you say it is, then by definition the casino any casino runs just as much risk as a player, right? but it doesnt because of house edge which to me is just another way of saying weve stacked the deck in our favour but we might let you win from time to time. The casino knows that no matter what happens `its percentage` is secured and guaranteed, right? Ok fine. However a `truly` random slot machine would pose a risk to the casino as it would to the player, but we all know that slot machines dont pay out more than they take in, by definition, averaging around the 92-97 % mark depending on how the software is set up. Casinos got to make its money after all right!

I just dont see how a machine that is set up to always pay less than what it takes in, can be truly random and 97.1 % is less than a 100 % and the 2.9 %remainder is the casinos operating profit on that particular slot.

Bottom line here is if the slot was truly random, the casino operator could not guarantee themselves any profit margin at all but they do, quite carefully i would imagine as well.

I could be totally wrong but i dont think anyone could convince me otherwise to be honest, but hey i dont mind knowing that slots are `setup` in some way, its a natural conclusion because these casinos are not in it to make us happy, their in it to make money and no other reason and if im lucky enough to catch a slot at a time its paying out great.

 

[AudiManinBoro]

Simmo, answer your own question my friend. If slots are completely random, how can you even begin to think you can guage the warmth or the pattern in a slot. One totally contradicts the other, which is it? lol

 

[3Dice]

Simmo,

I get your point, nothing to worry about tho .. the only thing I could learn from the situation is that yours (and other posters) brains work just the way nature intended it to.

The mere concept of random has puzzled the greatest minds, and without going all quantum-mechanic on you, I'd be quoting one of the biggest with "God doesn't play dice with the universe", illustrating einsteins inability to accept random as a part of his belief system.

Mankind's ability to detect patterns has been the key to our evolution, our survival and the key to all our scientific achievements. We are hardwired to detect patterns, our brain feeds on repetition. We see what we expect to see and that ability to filter out information from the huge overhaul presented to us has brought us where we are.

So dont worry about it to much. Instead, comfort yourself with the thought that all patterns you detect actually are in the past. That could give you another view on things .. find them .. then check them .. you'll find that they all turn out to be wrong after the average expected nr of runs. But be carefull, its also one of our abilities to adjust these detected patterns as new information comes in ..

Also realise that a random number sequence, that has no segments where you detect patterns, would probably not be random as e.g. the sequence 1-2-1-2-1-2-1-2 is exactly equally unlikely as the sequence 1-8-3-6-9-2-5-1 .. so if the first one, which you would clearly detect a pattern in .. never occurs .. then it cant be totally random.


Grtz,

Enzo@3Dice

 

[brutaldeluxe]

Roulette wheel is random, casinos make a profit from that.
How about this for a simple slot machine. Program the slot to randomly generate either the number 1 or the number 2, or programming to that effect.
You put your 1 in the slot.....if it spins a 1 you lose, if it spins a 2 you win
1.90 Slot can be totally random and that will guarantee the house a profit.
Sure it could go on a huge run of 2s and payout alot, it could also go on a huge run of 1s and pay nothing. Just cos it goes on a huge run of 2s doesn't mean it needs to kick into "suck" mode to take money back. As long as the generation of 1s and 2s are random ie tending towards equal amounts of each over time with no predictable pattern then the machine will make cash for the casino. Scale that up to something a bit more complex and you have a random slot machine with a house edge.

On the simple slot I described you could alter the percentage payout by simply altering the size of the win. 2 for a 100% paying slot, 1.90 for a 95%, 1.99 for a 99.5% etc It would start to get a little more complicated if you wanted to keep the win payout at 1.90 but alter the percentage, it'd have to be programmed differently and I have no doubt random slot machine programs are far more complex and it's all sorted for tweaking percentages etc. Of course I am sure they can still screw things up so it's important the percentage paybacks are audited regularly.

 

[Rusty]

Thank you for the two above insightful posts.
3 Dice funny you should mention quantum physics as I have read more books on the subject than you could shake a stick at and understood non of them

Certainly there is truth in both these posts but does'nt quantum physics tell us that a property can exist in Two contrary states at the same time?

That would explain Simmos stance

Anyway we digress, basically those friggin rabbits in halloweenies come up either reel 1 and 2 or 4 and 5 when you hit 2 scatters but miss the feaure.
Dont dis' the Einstein Baby!

 

[XXLClubCasino]

Just to give you an insight in the numbers we see for slots in our casino. The stats for one slot on a monthly basis went from 83-112% for the worst month to the best month from a player point of view over a year agreated on all spins from 1000s of players. Not one month met the exact predicted mathematical return for this particular slot. This is prove to me that the number in our casino is truly random.

This is also a major risk for the casino, monthly results variance can go from highly positive to highly negative. On a yearly basis of course the risk of lost for the casino is almost zero as all games have a positive house hedge.

This is also a reason why new casinos that are under finance have high risks of bankruptcy in the first months where only a couple of players and only a small amount of slot spin can lead to a major lost when a couple of players hit a jackpot or a 10'000 win. We did experienced this effect in the first 3 months of our operation partly also due to new players given a welcome bonus.

To sum up I know the Playtech RNG must be highly random as the return % variance per game per month is quite impressive. From a casino point of view we would prefer to have predictable returns per month, it would make our life a lot easier but wouldn't be random anymore

 

[NASHVEGAS]

This is also a reason why new casinos that are under finance have high risks of bankruptcy in the first months where only a couple of players and only a small amount of slot spin can lead to a major lost when a couple of players hit a jackpot or a 10'000 win. We did experienced this effect in the first 3 months of our operation partly also due to new players given a welcome bonus.

A curious question. Is there something taboo about online gambling which the insurance companies refrain from insuring online casinos(I assume they will) against the potential of multiple, large and even extraordinary losses in order that this potential risk can be reduced thus thereby allowing leverage and equity funding as well as cash flow to be a source for working capital in order that this risk(refered to above) does not lessen the business's ability to continue as an ongoing concern........... Generally, the issuing policy insurer will then pass some risk via reinsurance..........If L.of London will insure some of my pro football player acquaintences, what wouldn't they insure?(Note:the above inquiry does not refer to the truly under capitalized and poorly managed fly by nights hopeing on a whim and a prayer to suceed)...................Thanks in advance for teaching me about your business.

 

[Simmo!]

Simmo, answer your own question my friend. If slots are completely random, how can you even begin to think you can guage the warmth or the pattern in a slot. One totally contradicts the other, which is it? lol

Erm...

Simmo,

...dont worry about it to much. Instead, comfort yourself with the thought that all patterns you detect actually are in the past.

Erm...

Certainly there is truth in both these posts but does'nt quantum physics tell us that a property can exist in Two contrary states at the same time?

That would explain Simmos stance

Erm...

 

[NASHVEGAS]

A curious question. Is there something taboo about online gambling which the insurance companies refrain from insuring online casinos(I assume they will) against the potential of multiple, large and even extraordinary losses in order that this potential risk can be reduced thus thereby allowing leverage and equity funding as well as cash flow to be a source for working capital in order that this risk(refered to above) does not lessen the business's ability to continue as an ongoing concern........... Generally, the issuing policy insurer will then pass some risk via reinsurance..........If L.of London will insure some of my pro football player acquaintences, what wouldn't they insure?(Note:the above inquiry does not refer to the truly under capitalized and poorly managed fly by nights hopeing on a whim and a prayer to suceed)...................Thanks in advance for teaching me about your business.

Of course the term bonus abuse et al makes the above moot. After all bonus abuse has replaced the need to insure as mentioned above.......I got it.

 

[XXLClubCasino]

A curious question. Is there something taboo about online gambling which the insurance companies refrain from insuring online casinos(I assume they will) against the potential of multiple, large and even extraordinary losses in order that this potential risk can be reduced thus thereby allowing leverage and equity funding as well as cash flow to be a source for working capital in order that this risk(refered to above) does not lessen the business's ability to continue as an ongoing concern........... Generally, the issuing policy insurer will then pass some risk via reinsurance..........If L.of London will insure some of my pro football player acquaintences, what wouldn't they insure?(Note:the above inquiry does not refer to the truly under capitalized and poorly managed fly by nights hopeing on a whim and a prayer to suceed)...................Thanks in advance for teaching me about your business.

The risks can be exactly quantified as for each offered games we have the exact expected return as well as the highest potential lost (player winning) and the mathematical occurrence for it. You can then pretty much calculate your maximum exposure.

For us we never thought about taking an insurance for this coming from a successful landbase operation we have the needed capital in the background. Playtech as an operator wont even consider taking new license if they are not fully backed up financially.

For us the biggest risk that is also not easily calculable comes from the welcome bonus offered to players. This bonus negative bonus effect is something we didn't fully understand coming from traditional casinos business where you only give incentives to players when they lost.

It's no secret we lost a large sum of $ due to bonus players for this I wished we would have had an insurance but no insurance would take this risk.

I know that most sport books are insured against big lost where they pay the first X mio and the insurance cover for the rest. It's quite a costly position in any sport book operation but absolutely needed as there is absolutely no warranty a sportbook will have a positive long run return, especially if you do not have highly professionals staff members that understand their business.

The most profitable online gambling business is poker with a ZERO risk for the operators, it's also one of the reason we have seen this explosion of online poker sides.

 

[NASHVEGAS]

The risks can be exactly quantified as for each offered games we have the exact expected return as well as the highest potential lost (player winning) and the mathematical occurrence for it. You can then pretty much calculate your maximum exposure.

For us we never thought about taking an insurance for this coming from a successful landbase operation we have the needed capital in the background. Playtech as an operator wont even consider taking new license if they are not fully backed up financially.

For us the biggest risk that is also not easily calculable comes from the welcome bonus offered to players. This bonus negative bonus effect is something we didn't fully understand coming from traditional casinos business where you only give incentives to players when they lost.

It's no secret we lost a large sum of $ due to bonus players for this I wished we would have had an insurance but no insurance would take this risk.

I know that most sport books are insured against big lost where they pay the first X mio and the insurance cover for the rest. It's quite a costly position in any sport book operation but absolutely needed as there is absolutely no warranty a sportbook will have a positive long run return, especially if you do not have highly professionals staff members that understand their business.

The most profitable online gambling business is poker with a ZERO risk for the operators, it's also one of the reason we have seen this explosion of online poker sides.

Thanks for responding to my inquiry and educating me on this risk management practice.....Best Wishes

 

[GrandMaster]

This is also a major risk for the casino, monthly results variance can go from highly positive to highly negative. On a yearly basis of course the risk of lost for the casino is almost zero as all games have a positive house hedge.

The variance had better be positive. Or maybe you mean something else.

 

[XXLClubCasino]

The variance had better be positive. Or maybe you mean something else.

Yes, you are right nothing to do with variance here, I meant "monthly results can go from highly positive to highly negative" just remove "variance".

Thanks

 

[Rusty]

Yes, you are right nothing to do with variance here, I meant "monthly results can go from highly positive to highly negative" just remove "variance".

Thanks

That is why I have mentioned previously that when a Casino reports an anual payout % I become extremely suspicious when that % stays the same to within a few decimal points from Year to Year.
I would expect Casinos with huge turnovers to have the most consistent anual results but they are just a little to consistent with some Casinos IMO.
Something to bear in mind?

 

[NASHVEGAS]

That is why I have mentioned previously that when a Casino reports an anual payout % I become extremely suspicious when that % stays the same to within a few decimal points from Year to Year.
I would expect Casinos with huge turnovers to have the most consistent anual results but they are just a little to consistent with some Casinos IMO.
Something to bear in mind?

Rusty, the statistics information in this video (especially on increasing number of random events and the effect on standard deviation) may clear up some of your concerns. It is really nothing more than STATS 101. However, if your statement above somehow is considering the role of bonuses for an online casino, I am not sure how that statiscally is determined. Thus, the following only applies to land based gaming.

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[Rusty]

Rusty, the statistics information in this video (especially on increasing number of random events and the effect on standard deviation) may clear up some of your concerns. It is really nothing more than STATS 101. However, if your statement above somehow is considering the role of bonuses for an online casino, I am not sure how that statiscally is determined. Thus, the following only applies to land based gaming.

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Yes I took that into account hence the second part of that statement.
We also need to consider the fact that the bet sizes are not consistent ie highrollers and low rollers which adds complexity to the standard deviation.
I am not taking into account bonuses although like you I am unsure of how or whether this is statiscally implemented in payout %
I have not done the Maths but my hunch is there should be more variance in the payout % than a few decimal places but it is possible I am just plain wrong.