PokerStars

[Nazareth]

"ANYONE can turn $1000 into $25000 with play money at ANY site, IN any seat, not just this one."

Go do it in 4 days at the 25/50 tables- then report back here- If you got 24,000- then we'll talk

Macguyver- I wasn't being sarcastic- not at all- I thought what you said was funny & yes I would give 24% not simply what you asked-

 

[Nazareth]

"some people (including myself) believe that it is much more likely that playing for fun in an online casino favors the player as a means to entice that player to deposit real money."

That's the point I'm trying to make here- exactly- I think it's disshonest 7 not random as I've stated- I've challenged others to try it out- but they'd rather not I guess instead prefering to insinuate & speculate without first hand knowledge

 

[chalupa]

I've challenged others to try it out- but they'd rather not I guess instead prefering to insinuate & speculate without first hand knowledge

I took data YOU supplied and did not find anything particularly unusual, even when compared to random data.

I have seen far more lopsided results many times on other sites, and with real money.

S*** happens. Especially when you're up against bad players who routinely play s***.

 

[Macgyver]

Macguyver- I wasn't being sarcastic- not at all- I thought what you said was funny & yes I would give 24% not simply what you asked-

I'm confused (not that it takes that much for it to happen) ... are you willing to put MY money where YOUR mouth is?

My intrepretation was that you were not since it's illegal to gamble for real money online where you reside. However, if I've misunderstood, I am quite serious to donate $25 for you to test this out in REAL money play.

Especially for 24% of whatever profits you make.

 

[sevin7]

Most people don't need a 6 page post to know that play money tables are different than real money tables. I still like to play, but my husband won't play real money poker anymore. He played for a few years with play money and did pretty well, well enough to make him want to deposit a small amount, and believe me that is not something he takes lightly. I think he deposited $25 2 times and both times went through it pretty quick. People just play different with play money, and sometimes its just plain rediculous. I know one thing though, if I thought I had cracked a system or whatever and REALLY believed it, I would have tried it out with real money instead of trying to get strangers to believe me!

 

[Nazareth]

Mac- no- i have too much to lose- I'm not well and can't lose my dissability- the whole point of this thread was just as you stated- that there seems to be patterning in the fake money rooms to entice players to drop real money.

Chalupa- I'll say it a 1000 times & stick to it. You will not find the 'runs' 'streaks' 'lucky shots' etc etc etc on as consistant a basis as you find in poker room fakem oney rooms. I've asked those who doubt what I'm saying to check it out for themselves & have posted many results.

You're taking the overall win/loss of each player and comming up with averages- however- you are not looking at how often certain seats/players go on their 'streaks' - it's almost predictable- when you see Red Dress hit 2 hands then you better not bet heavy for a couple of rounds because she is likely to hit 3-4 more- then lose a hand or two and then win a couple of more. Then you'll see Cigar guy hit a couple of times, then go on his little 'streak' then white shirt guy- on and on it goes on a consistant basis- I'll ask again- is it this way in the places you play at? Becasue I know for fact it isn't at pokerstars.

You also do not routinely and consistantly see certain seats get entirely shut out of the action like you do in poker room- When I go to pokerstars- everyone stands a chance & the winnings are all over the table- however- many many nights I've seen certain seats get entirely shut out while the same 2-3 players keep hitting over and over again- I've been the victim and the winner on both accoutns many times

It is apparent noone is going to check this out- so all I can say is whatever. You don't want to beleive there is anything funny about consistant and frequent runs and hits- That htese people are just 'lucky'? then fine-

Seven- this was about informing people that IF they play there for fake money- just be aware that something is going on- that's all- but people have said "Bah- nothin's going on- can't be- all superstition' I maintain different-

 

[chalupa]

however- you are not looking at how often certain seats/players go on their 'streaks'

Yes, I did -- using your own data -- and addressed that in my post. Small streaks SHOULD happen even with purely random data. If they NEVER did, THEN you should worry! And with poker there are psychological reasons (at least in real money) why "rushes" are more likely to occur.

But nonetheless, I actually went and observed some play money tables since I hadn't personally done so.

One thing I immediately noticed is that a room rarely stays full for an extended period. Presumably that was the case when you were gathering your data as well. This of course skews your data. If the guy in Seat X stays stays planted while Seat Y is empty for half the time, Seat X is of course much more likely to to win a higher percentage of pots.

Another thing I noticed based on observing betting patterns and the showdowns, is that some people appear to be trying to play some semblance of a real game, while others are consistently in on two- or three-bet preflop and flop action with any hope.

Again, of course the guy trying to play a "real" game in these situations is going to win fewer pots than the "any two to the river for any amount" guy. (The better player will win more chips in the long run, but that's a different story.)

Finally I noticed these games take stinking forever, and the only thing more boring than playing meaningless hold 'em is WATCHING meaningless hold 'em. And I've spent too much time on this already, so I didn't do much data-gathering.

However, in a small sampling of 10 hands, I did notice this alarming pattern of winning:

Seat # 1, 2, 10, 7, 10, 10, 10, 2, 2, 10

Seat 10 wins 50% of the hands, and seat 2 wins 30%, and all the others share 20%? So you're right, that sure DOES seem suspicious.

Only problem is... those 10 hands were on Pokerstars.

 

[Nazareth]

Well no I'm sorry- it doesn't skew it- What I've witnessed today and all evening is that these spurts are almost predictable- I hit with Tux guy for 4 hands, missed two, hit another- was dealt two sucker hands & then immediately went to another room and sat in Cigar guys seat- He didn't hit for several rounds- and Tux guy didn't either- Then Cigar guy hits for 2 hands- misses one hits another, then misses 2 at which point I almost left but then he hit again, and white shirt started hitting- I sat and watched him hit a couple of hands, then I went went to another room and sat in red dress seat- she immediately started hitting but shared one hand with the old lady. I thought old lady was about to have her 'run' and thought about moving to another oom- she didn't, she only hit the one- then the winning streaks it went back to Tux guy and the guy in white shirt who traded wins for several rounds with a couple of wins handed out Blue dress and cigar guy here and there.- it owuld not have mattered if the room was full or if people left unless they were the ones 'scheduled' for their runs.

I'm sorry chalupa- but unless you're playing there- crunching the numbers isn't showing you this continuous pattern of win spurts-

Here is a short list from this morning

S, R, J, R, R, S, H, BD, H, BD, R, C/B, H, W, R, H, H, B, H, R, S, S, S, R, H, C, B, R/C, BD, S, C, ---(sat out) O, R, B, O, O, R, C, H, W, B, H, T, H, O, -- (sat out), O, T, C, T, T, C, B, T, W, R, on and on it goes.

I'm not talking about the percentages- what I'm trying to get across here is that while it is normal for players to go in spurts- it is not normal for this type and amount of spurts to be happening between certain players everytime you go on. It has almost gotten to the point where I can practically tell who is about to hit their 'runs'' & by moving to another room and sitting in those seats- provided you guessed right, You can have those 'runs' yourself.- that just simply isn't right in my book. As you can also see from that list above- certain get totally shut out during that hour- on a regular basis- The jogging suit woman, Tux guy, the Afro American guy, The Old Lady & White Shirt guy did absolutely horrible- Tux and Old Lady picked up their runs the next hour. I have qwuite a few hours written down (They're scattered all over my desk on note paper lol) & I'm seeing this type of patterning consistantly. Yes, you'd expecvt to win a couple of hands per hour- especially in loose games, and rightfully you should, but it's the 'spurts' and their consistancy & regularity that I'm trying to point out Because IF there is this patterning, then the game no longer becomes about winning by skill, but winning by predetermined deals & which seat you happen to be sitting in at the time. You need the 8h to make that straight you'rte looking for? & it hasn't come up by the turn? Don't sweat it, IF you're in your allotted 'spurt' you nail it on the river.

I've been writing down the wins per hour and noting who will have those wins- (If you'll look at the list above- just about where the first set of dashes are represents approximately an hour- about 30 hands unless you get i na slow room)- it seems from what I can tell right now, that the wins will be 4-5 wins per seat per hour and they will be in 'runs' - If the seat I'm in has had the 4-5 wins close together, then I'll move to one of the other seats/rooms- if it doesn't start hitting right off, I'll play tight- then sure enough- here comes the 4-5 wins- then I'll move to another seat/room

If this only happened a coupel of times a day- I'd say fine- it's just coincidence- or I'm on a 'lcuky, or unulucky streak' but it is happening with too much regularity in my opinion. I can't sit in pokerstars and watch certain seats hit 4-5 hands- then watch it move to another seat, then another. The wins are scattered all over the board- Yes, sometimes people will hit a couple in a row- but nothign even close to what I'm experiencing in pokerroom.

I'll post my hand history from pokerstars in a couple of days- I'm still workin on this pokerroom right now- I've played pokerstars for about 20 hours (just signed up a week and halkf ago- But I have not experienced that kind of winning going on there in that 20 hours- yes- a couple of seats did well at times- but you're not going to find it consistant like pokerroom- you're more likely gfoing to see short spurts over the course of the day- as it should be- not continuously.

 

[Mugwump]

Guess he stopped winning...

 

[winbig]

Guess he stopped winning...

or finally took it to heart about what everyone was telling him, and that real money tables differ much more than play $.

 

[Nazareth]

Guess he stopped winning...

No sir- I haven't stopped winning- Just got sick of arguing about htis woith people that won't check out whta I'm saying and just want to argue- I also noted that you two talked aBOUT this very topic over in another thread & agreed with the poster about this very concept- interesting- Why agree i n that thread yet argue like a banchee in this thread? The patterns are there in free play in poker room- I could go on and on about it- but seeings as ghow noone is going to make the effort to check it out for themselves- I won't

or finally took it to heart about what everyone was telling him, and that real money tables differ much more than play $.

What in THE heck? That's what I've been arguing all along- You've lost track of what this thread was about. I've been saying that FREE play tables are patterned- I've never argued that money tables were because I've never played them. Oi! I give up

 

[chalupa]

I (for one) understand what you are saying (I think). I just disagree with your conclusions, even when using your own data.

I think what you are seeing is readily explained for the reasons I already outlined in previous posts -- e.g. differences in player styles, players coming and going from the tables, and the natural appearance of "patterns" in random data.

However, I did think of a good way to test your theory that removes the extraneous human factors that I mentioned.

Get yourself and nine of your closest friends (or any chimp who can press a button) to sit down at an empty play money table. Instruct everyone to simply check/call every hand to the river. Record who wins, and repeat for 1000 hands.

Keep track of it by seat number in an Excel spreadsheet or something and I'm sure one of our resident statistics freaks (or Mr. Wizardofodds.com guy) would volunteer to analyze the results. I'd be willing to bet $1000 that the results are well within the realm of statistical probability.



Another thing to consider (I may have mentioned this already)...

If there truly were inexplicable runs of wins by one seat or another at the table, such orderly high-level behavior would be exceedingly unlikely to be the result of an accidentally flawed RNG used to shuffle cards to a constantly changing number of players (trust me on this one, or ask a software guy).

That would mean that the site was intentionally creating that behavior, and I can't imagine any motive they would have for doing that, especially only on play money tables. And it's not simply because I'm unimaginative , because I can think of ways to rig a site that would be both profitable and difficult to detect.

 

[Nazareth]

Two quick points- Yuo can actually test what I'm saying with a deck of real cards yourself- just deal 9 seats over & over & record results- don't need the friends actually.

You will not find

#1 the amount of straights that come up as does poker rooms deals
#2 the number of wins/runs by certain seats on such a consistant basis
#3 If you had say three decks, and you deal three 'tables', and one seat was winning at one of your tables, you would not be able to move to another table in that same seat and start winning as consistantly as you do at poker room in the fake money rooms. There IS a definate pattern of 'runs' that goes on- Moving to another table in pokerroom and winning in those same seats more than backs this up. IF it only happened infrequently- I could say it was a fluke- a coincidence- It's <b>not</b> happening infrequently- it happens everytime I go on. An d I'll tell you another thing I'm noticing lately- That certain seats will go on long 'runs' - it happens about 3 times a day or so- AND, if I move to another table at the same seat- I'll be the one on that long 'lucky streak' & not the one getting hammered by the guy with the 'lucky steak'. This simply can't happen in real poker games- not with the frequency and consistancy that it happens in pokerroom. It's not the number of players- not the amount of people moving in and out of the game that determines this patterning- infact- when a person in a winning seat leaves for whatever reason & someone comes in and takes their spot- they continue the winning streak until it's time for another seat to have their 'streak'

In the experiment listed above, Yes, yo will experience mini runs from time to time- nothing unusual about that- BUT you will not experience the consistancy and frequency of these mini runs that you do in pokerroom play money tables. Chalupa- I'm sitting in a room- watching what players are hitting, and I'm honestly able to say to myself "Red dress is due for her run' and in a couple of hands- Red Dress is hitting several hands. Then I'll watch her get dealy several sucker hands & lose but be kept betting right to the river. These aren't just lucky guesses on my part-

That would mean that the site was intentionally creating that behavior, and I can't imagine any motive they would have for doing that, especially only on play money tables.

The whole point of htis thread was that they don't have reason to do that in money rooms- they do however in fake money rooms- it's my contention that fake money rooms are geared toward enticing players to set up real money accounts. I mean my gosh- I had a run the other night that was unbeleivable- everyone quit betting agaisnt me- it was so bad that at one point I had to tell everyone not to bet because I had 6-6 and the flop showed 6-6-3

The table WILL go random from time to time- butr my contention is that, and this is just a thought, that players account numbers are pre-set. %There are times when you will get totally shut off & nothing you do will matter- you will not win- for hours on end- Everythign you get dealt will be beat- You may win a few hands- but very few. It's luaghable- You'll be on such a 'losing streak' that you can predict what is going to happen- AND it will happen. You'll draw the K-Q clubs, the flop will come up with two clubs- you'll bet, then a spade will show, then sure enough a club comes up- only one problem- the fella next to you- the one who can't lose- The one who has been beating your pairs with a higher pair (That's another point I wanna make- Watch how many itme s in pokerroom that three or four people are dealt pairs at the same time & watch how furious the betting gets when this happens) has either A-9 Club, or he has a full house- (That river card was the card he needed too) This will go on for hours on end.

Meh- I could go on and on- I've stated it all- I'm witnessing this night after night after night- you guys are simply theorizing 'why it can't be so' - I'm telling you, it is so- Not only am I frustrated at pokerroom for this patterning, I'm frustrated at the fact that people who don't play there deny that it is happening even though I'm witnessing it first hand everytime I go on.

 

[chalupa]

Yuo can actually test what I'm saying with a deck of real cards yourself- just deal 9 seats over & over & record results- don't need the friends actually.

You will not find

#1 the amount of straights that come up as does poker rooms deals
#2 the number of wins/runs by certain seats on such a consistant basis

Actually I think I WOULD find that (assuming my shuffling skills are up to snuff ), but ONLY IF you compared it to a Poker Room experiment with 10 players who always showed down their hands at the river.

But asking me to compare my controlled results from a deck of real cards to your non-controlled observations and your seat-switching play against multiple changing players with various styles won't prove anything.

A controlled experiment on Poker Room needs to be done to convince anyone.

Let's both put up $1000, we both watch a controlled 10-player table and record the results, and have the results analyzed by a third party to determine who's right.

The wizardofodds.com guy would probably do the analysis for us to determine the winner, out of intellectual curiousity and/or a cut of the winner's take.

it's my contention that fake money rooms are geared toward enticing players to set up real money accounts

Well... if that's the scam, so far it doesn't seem to be working. You haven't set up a real-money account, and nobody else believes you.

But, yes, I suppose some players might set up a real money account if they felt they had a system that could beat non-random play money tables.

Personally I would probably STILL avoid such a site, on the assumption that a site which had no scruples about rigging their play money tables would also have no scruples about stealing my money with a different scam at the real money tables.

 

[Nazareth]

But asking me to compare my controlled results from a deck of real cards to your non-controlled observations and your seat-switching play against multiple changing players with various styles won't prove anything.

Their playing style really doesn't come into account here- I can sum up their style in one word- BET EVERYTHING.. Lol=- The point here is not style or folding or anything like that- the point is that they are going to the river & I -Ah I'm not explaining htis well.

If all hands are played to hte end, the patterns are still there- whoever is 'slated for their run' can bet anythign that they are dealt- literally- I've played some really crappy hands and won when my seat was winning- it wouldn't matter what anyone's playing style was- they were not going to win-- they couldn't- they wouldn't have had the cards they needed until my slated run was over- then it's off to the red dress girl, then the jogger suit woman, then white shirt- then you might see it get random for several hands- then wham- right back to the patterns or runs-

I have been taking notes- & I have been watching this happen night after night. I have hours and hours and hours of rounds written down

But asking me to compare my controlled results from a deck of real cards to your non-controlled observations and your seat-switching play against multiple changing players with various styles won't prove anything.

I guess I aint gonna convince anyone- I simply posted my findings here as a heads up to those who might play there in the fakem oney rooms- a heads up about un-randomness (Is that a word?)

But, yes, I suppose some players might set up a real money account if they felt they had a system that could beat non-random play money tables.

I'm not really suggesting that that is their motive- I think it might be more like "Give em runs- then give em cards that that come close but don't wuite make it to keep em betting & thinking that 'hey, I can win, Yeah, I bet sometimes when I shouldn't, but it averages out- maybe I aughta give the real money rooms a shot'

It just isn't good poker when 8-3's are winning, when K-2 offsuits are always winning etc. IF you're gonna stay alive in the free money rooms- you WILL have to bet on crappy carsd, and you will have to call everyone's raises.- that just aint good poker- BUT I suppose most free online poker rooms are like that. Make sure that people that play sloppy have frequent runs & you got em hooked- got em convinced they could make a go of it in the pay rooms. That's whaT I'm suggesting their intentions are.

I dunno man- I aint good at trying to explain thigns- that's why I asked people to check it out for thmeselves if they didn't beleive me. For those that do play there- I gave this info incase they thought masybew somethign was going on but just couldn't quite put their figner on it- I'll tell ya- I didn'
t notice it for awhile myself & just couldn't get ahead really. That isn't the case anymore- I haven't chnaged my play at all, haven't 'improved' etc- All I've done is do the same thing I've always done plus watch which players are on their 'runs' then m,oving to other rooms and sitting in those seats.
Before I noticed that- there was no way I was going to be 4-10 thousand ahead on most days

I give up on this- I stated my case- people can take it for what it's worth- beleive it or not- but if ya sign up at poker room and get frustrated, and go through hours uopn hours of being shut off from the right cards- I can tell you that there is a reason why- beleive it or not.