Online Slot stats May 2010!

Shyguy

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Location
Earth...unfortunately.
Online Slotistics May 2010

Amazing how many of you were kind enough to send me your slot stats and logs. They have made very interesting reading and now it is all collated I am able to provide you with some very interesting stats, some you will like, others you will not.

The RTP's are a bit lower than expected. The whole stats for May were however taken from other logs and sessions prior to the beginning of May but I decided to use them as it has given me something to work with.

Something I did learn from the majority of logs is the popularity of certain slot machines, but more importantly when you all tend to start losing.

Many of you tend to reach about 40-60% above your initial deposit but carry on. From what I have seen, those that do this then lose approxiamately 50% of that total.

Simply put, player deposits $100, wins up to $140, continues to gamble, walks with $70!!

With that 70% the majority of you then played at the same casino but at a different slot, same thing happens.

From what I have observed only this month, it would seem logical for anyone who manages to win 40-60% above their initial deposit, to move onto a totally different casino with a different software platform. I will assume many of you play at different casinos so this is an easy thing to do, the problem is you cannot transfer your money from one account to the other.

Hopefully you will have funds in at least two different accounts. Now CM offers quite a lot of casinos with different software platforms and I would strongly advise that you mix at least two during your play time. IE Wager $100 at RTG and then $100 at MG.

Sessions that ended and re-started the following day looked to decrease at a slower rate of 12-17%. Therefore, if on the Monday you leave with your $140 (40% profit) you could expect to lose 12-17% of that on the Tuesday. Once that initial 12-17% is completed, the rise was slow but measured up against the standard RTP's I have recorded.

I would recommend all players to look to change software platforms when/if reaching 40-60%. As a fail safe you may even wish to use 25%+ as a guide.

Below are the figures I have calculated for May. A total of 832 sessions were collected. I only received 9 sessions from Boss Media platforms. Remember they are sessions I have received from the players and not what the actual software companies may or may not provide.

I decided to change the "Free Spins per dollar" to "Free Spins per 100 spins". The same goes for "Bonus Games". Surprisingly perhaps RTG offered more free spins per 100 but even that just broke the 1 Free spin per 100. This is alarming.

Many of those stats that I had collected showed many players to receive a lot more free spins after spinning at least 250+ during the one session, a higher stake per spin also showed to be more productive at getting more free spins and bonus games than playing at the lowest stake. I will be looking to add more to this by the end of June.

More stats can be found on the website, please do keep sending them to me on slotistics@slotistics.com The more I have the more I can find out.

If you like what I am doing there is a little "Donate" button on the site, all donations kindly accepted! Best of luck and will hopefully have more for you at the end of the June!

I am hoping to provide more on specific slot machines, actual casinos, IE Rushmore versus Cherry Red, and most popular slots on each platform and the average amount of spins taken before winning free spins, bonus games and a win over $50 in one spin.

Please remember I cannot do it without your help so please take a minute or so to jot some of your notes down!

Thanks once again to all who sent me their's and Keep those stats coming!
 
Arghhh lol, Sorry i nominated and gave thanks to Kakata :p It was supposed to go to Shyguy off course :oops: Hope this can get corrected :) ( i managed to find how to remove this again lol, ShyGuy has now been awarded and got thanks :) )
Thanks for this Shyguy great work, it shows off a bit like ive tried last week, more playtime wins on 1$ or more bets, also quite a lot freespins at RTG's but got my winnings from Microgaming etc... nice one :notworthy
 
Hi Guys, Shyguy

As much as I appreciate the initiative, and as much as I hate to be the partypooper, as a mathematician you sometimes see things that make the
hairs on your back stand up straight. This is one of these things.

Come'on people .. some common sense please .. here's a post that claims that on e.g. MG software, in may, there's been 0.063 (feature = freespins + bonus) every 100 games. That's once every 1587 spins. And you believe that ?

Lets keep it real. There is no way that these numbers are correct.


ShyGuy,

I'm offering you my help to explain a couple of things and give you some pointers and advice. Please send me a pm asap. A pointer I need to make very clear right now is that you can not derive the type of advice you are deriving from descriptive statistics of a random event. Things like "I would recommend all players to look to change software platforms when/if reaching 40-60%. As a fail safe you may even wish to use 25%+ as a guide. " .. are completely meaningless .. its like saying you've measured lottery results, 3 got drawn more often .. and then to advice playing 3. It's random. Changing platforms will change absolutely nothing. If you take your site serious you need to be doing the opposite. Your viewers will make these types of conclusions and you would have to warn them not to do so. (e.g. please be aware that these numbers are an analysis of historical data that cannot be used to predict the future. Don't try to use these numbers to better your odds. Your odds will still be the same.).

Please contact me soon,

Enzo
 
Hi Guys, Shyguy

As much as I appreciate the initiative, and as much as I hate to be the partypooper, as a mathematician you sometimes see things that make the
hairs on your back stand up straight. This is one of these things.

Come'on people .. some common sense please .. here's a post that claims that on e.g. MG software, in may, there's been 0.063 (feature = freespins + bonus) every 100 games. That's once every 1587 spins. And you believe that ?

Lets keep it real. There is no way that these numbers are correct.


ShyGuy,

I'm offering you my help to explain a couple of things and give you some pointers and advice. Please send me a pm asap. A pointer I need to make very clear right now is that you can not derive the type of advice you are deriving from descriptive statistics of a random event. Things like "I would recommend all players to look to change software platforms when/if reaching 40-60%. As a fail safe you may even wish to use 25%+ as a guide. " .. are completely meaningless .. its like saying you've measured lottery results, 3 got drawn more often .. and then to advice playing 3. It's random. Changing platforms will change absolutely nothing. If you take your site serious you need to be doing the opposite. Your viewers will make these types of conclusions and you would have to warn them not to do so. (e.g. please be aware that these numbers are an analysis of historical data that cannot be used to predict the future. Don't try to use these numbers to better your odds. Your odds will still be the same.).

Please contact me soon,

Enzo

Thanks for the input Enzo, the stats I have collected are from over 800 sessions and provide these answers and in most cases, the 40%-60% was very clear.

I only recommend that a software platform be changed when getting to this point as the stats I have collected show that the majority of players then lost money at and around that point. Changing platforms may not be beneficial but when one starts to lose at 140% then it may be a better idea to stop play or move onto another platform.

I am not trying to predict the future but pass on what I have collected. The free spins and bonus games are separate, 12 free spins is different to 1 bonus game. Many of the stats collected have shown that many players do not win either a bonus game nor free spins from 100 spins, hence the low ratio under 1 free spin per 100.

I have simply collected as many stats as possible and reported what I have found.
 
Enzo, not a mathmetician but am a slot player and I can assure you that his free spin ratio seems pretty good to me. Let's see, deposit $100, play at $.40 per spin and never get a free spin. That would be 250 spins with no bonus. Believe me when I say, I have had those sessions. :D Actually more than I care to say.

And no, not pointing at 3Dice cause I can't play there anymore. Software issues and all.
 
Hi Guys, Shyguy

As much as I appreciate the initiative, and as much as I hate to be the partypooper, as a mathematician you sometimes see things that make the
hairs on your back stand up straight. This is one of these things.

Come'on people .. some common sense please .. here's a post that claims that on e.g. MG software, in may, there's been 0.063 (feature = freespins + bonus) every 100 games. That's once every 1587 spins. And you believe that ?

Lets keep it real. There is no way that these numbers are correct.
I agree - those figures are a complete joke and in no way a reflection of reality.

I mean; Microgaming 0.003 bonus games per 100 spins = once every 33,333 spins. :eek:

Sorry, but those figures are insane. :mad:

KK
 
I agree - those figures are a complete joke and in no way a reflection of reality.

I mean; Microgaming 0.003 bonus games per 100 spins = once every 33,333 spins. :eek:

Sorry, but those figures are insane. :mad:

KK

Thanks for your input KK. 33,333 is not that many spins. Split between just 100 players that is 333 spins each. One would hope that a bonus game would be included to some of those players from 333 spins. Some do, some don't.
 
Thanks for your input KK. 33,333 is not that many spins. Split between just 100 players that is 333 spins each. One would hope that a bonus game would be included to some of those players from 333 spins. Some do, some don't.
Sorry again, but if you carry on posting stuff like that you are just going to make yourself look very foolish.
I appreciate what you are trying to achieve with your analysis of various player's stats, and I think it would be very interesting data for everyone, including me. But the figures in the tables at the bottom of your opening post are out by a factor of around 100.
I really think you should go back & double check your calculations because they are definitely wrong.

KK
 
Hi Shiguy
I nominated your post for effort as it must have taken you a long time and the motive is good.
However the first thing that struck me were the free spin figures, they can not be right and I was going to ask how you got this figure or if I was misreading it but Enzo and KK have already been there.

This is a problem because it casts doubt on your RTP figures as well.

It could also be pointed out that there will probably be a bias toward a lower RTP than what is actually being recorded by the wider community because people who feel they are not getting a fair game are more likely to send in their stats.
This is not such a problem though as you could just add a caveat and after all the important thing is being able to compare the return of different software and as long as all the figures contain the same bias there is no problem in that respect.

Go back and find out where the error is and repost your findings.
Don't be deterred - it is an excellent idea and thanks for your hard work.
 
Thumbs down for method, not for OP's effort

Thanks for your input KK. 33,333 is not that many spins. Split between just 100 players that is 333 spins each. One would hope that a bonus game would be included to some of those players from 333 spins. Some do, some don't.

I've spoken at length with people who work with slot machine math. They tell me that the expected range of results is rather wide until you reach the 1 million spin mark. If a game returns 95%, any group of 50,000 spins would be considered normal with a return from 85-105%. That figure would still be considered normal at 1 million spins with about a 2-3% range on either side of 95%. This of course is referring to a single game and each game would be more or less volatile than the next game. The point is that 33,000 spins from 100 players across who knows how many different games is (statistically speaking) a joke. I'm not putting down your efforts here since I like it when people question and analyze, but the methodology isn't going to produce accurate portrayals of any of the software providers listed.
 
I've spoken at length with people who work with slot machine math. They tell me that the expected range of results is rather wide until you reach the 1 million spin mark. If a game returns 95%, any group of 50,000 spins would be considered normal with a return from 85-105%. That figure would still be considered normal at 1 million spins with about a 2-3% range on either side of 95%. This of course is referring to a single game and each game would be more or less volatile than the next game. The point is that 33,000 spins from 100 players across who knows how many different games is (statistically speaking) a joke. I'm not putting down your efforts here since I like it when people question and analyze, but the methodology isn't going to produce accurate portrayals of any of the software providers listed.

More accurate than guessing I would say.:D

Why is 1 million such a magic number anyway?

I am not much of a mathematician myself but 33,000 spins at 20 lines is 660,000 recorded outcomes according to my maths.
Also many outcomes are repeated even if the combination of reel positions is different so there may be 30 million possible reel stop combinations but 1 million of those may be for the same 3 of a kind for example.Meaning you do not need to run 30 million spins to discover if the combination has appeared around a million times because essentially you are looking for an event with a 1/30 probability.

So it is not right to call the sample size a joke and though I accept you could argue it is not large enough to accurately gauge RTP it can still be useful as a guide - it is not statistically meaningless by any means.

In a real world scenario consider how often you would expect a low variance slot with 85% theoretical RTP to have a higher return than the same slot at 95% theoretical RTP over 10,000 spins.
Your answer would have to be 50% of the time if you considered 10,000 spins a statistical joke right?
Yet that answer, in this context, now looks to be the joke so we have to be careful with our level understanding not to jump to conclusions or simply accept what we are told by industry insiders.

If you are lucky enough to have some basic programming skills then it is a simple task to simulate some of the above without actually making a slot.
You may be surprised by some of the outcomes.
 
@Rusty

I think (and I'd rather defer to a qualified math expert, but will try to explain without butchering) that if you run x random spins, you expect to be within +/- y percent of the theoretical return 19 times out of 20. As x increases, y decreases. As I understood it, the value of y stays pretty high until you reach about 1 million spins and then starts declining more rapidly.

I'm very open to being corrected or confirmed by a more qualified poster.
 
@Rusty

I think (and I'd rather defer to a qualified math expert, but will try to explain without butchering) that if you run x random spins, you expect to be within +/- y percent of the theoretical return 19 times out of 20. As x increases, y decreases. As I understood it, the value of y stays pretty high until you reach about 1 million spins and then starts declining more rapidly.

I'm very open to being corrected or confirmed by a more qualified poster.

As I say I am no statistician either but what you describe is essentially correct except I disagree that on low variance slots (which nearly all online slots are) that value of y will remain high until after so many spins.

The rate y decreases is inextricably tied to the variance of the slot and what many people fail to understand or overlook when doing this sort of analysis is that a very large percentage of RTP(the majority) is made up of very small returns on stake - this is very important. Large wins are extremely rare and make up a very small percentage of the RTP - a jackpot paying x10,000 for example would typically make up less than 1/10th of a percent of overall RTP and have less than 1 in a million chance of occurring.

Things get a little more complicated, or clearer depending on your perspective, when you take into account these slots are bonus slots.
Complicated because a percentage of the RTP is tied up in the bonus rounds but clearer because these bonus rounds have a weighted probability of occurring.
Now without being too controversial I think it is fair to say that factor y for bonus rounds alone is far less volatile than in the regular game unless by design.(That is another discussion but essentially more volatility paradoxically means more control where video slots are concerned.)
Generally low variance slots will average around 150 spins per bonus round with a payout of about x30 bet - or about 20% of RTP.

Of course I am talking in general terms and each slot is different but I am just pointing out that y decreases very rapidly at first and by the time you get to 100,000 spins let alone 1 million it is only going to decrease by only a fraction of a percent over more and more spins.

I will give one more example and I will even bias the example in favour of your argument by assuming a jackpot is won very quickly.

We have played 10,000 spins(1% of your estimation of required sample size just for neatness) at 20 lines.
The slot has returned 90% (180,000 of 200,000 bet)
the next spin we hit the jackpot (A jackpot would likely have a less than 1% probability of occurring so quickly) this pays 10,000. That would alter our RTP by +5% to 95% (5% would be 2.5% margin over just 10,000 spins)
So even with this extreme example you can see that y is not so volatile after only 10,000 spins and with anomalously data thrown in for good measure. Of course if that were 100,000 spins it would only be 0.25% margin!

I hope all or at least some of that makes a little clearer my stance of why I consider huge sample sizes are not essential before we can meaningfully analyse RTP.
 
Hi ShyGuy,

Online Slotistics May 2010
The RTP's are a bit lower than expected. The whole stats for May were however taken from other logs and sessions prior to the beginning of May but I decided to use them as it has given me something to work with.

These numbers are clearly not correct. Something went really really wrong with either :

1. The selection of your data. The selection criteria for any statistical research needs to be unrelated to the parameters you are measuring.
If it is indeed so that users have freely submitted play logs of their choice, then any and all research based on that is completely worthless. You can't learn anything about casinos or software with data selected that way, at best you can learn something about the players that submitted the logs.

As I've explained to you in pm already, if you take your site serious then you need to setup a very strict way to gather your data. in essence, users must (ahead of them starting to play), commit to submitting _all_ their playlogs for a given timeframe. If you let even the smallest window for a user to select after the facts which logs to submit and which not - then your research is worthless. (it cant be used for anything - not even internal compares..)

2. Something went wrong in you tallying or processing the data. Given the simple formula in this case I fear that the problem may be #1 ..

Something I did learn from the majority of logs is the popularity of certain slot machines, but more importantly when you all tend to start losing.

Many of you tend to reach about 40-60% above your initial deposit but carry on. From what I have seen, those that do this then lose approxiamately 50% of that total.

Simply put, player deposits $100, wins up to $140, continues to gamble, walks with $70!!

With that 70% the majority of you then played at the same casino but at a different slot, same thing happens.

ok, if your data had been correct - then this part of your analysis you can make. It is a description of historical data. I'm just pointing that out because I can't say that for the rest of your post.

From what I have observed only this month, it would seem logical for anyone who manages to win 40-60% above their initial deposit, to move onto a totally different casino with a different software platform. I will assume many of you play at different casinos so this is an easy thing to do, the problem is you cannot transfer your money from one account to the other.

Hopefully you will have funds in at least two different accounts. Now CM offers quite a lot of casinos with different software platforms and I would strongly advise that you mix at least two during your play time. IE Wager $100 at RTG and then $100 at MG.

Sessions that ended and re-started the following day looked to decrease at a slower rate of 12-17%. Therefore, if on the Monday you leave with your $140 (40% profit) you could expect to lose 12-17% of that on the Tuesday. Once that initial 12-17% is completed, the rise was slow but measured up against the standard RTP's I have recorded.

I would recommend all players to look to change software platforms when/if reaching 40-60%. As a fail safe you may even wish to use 25%+ as a guide.


[/B]

Ok, here's where you would flunk every math exam. This paragraph is completely entirely wrong. And whereas I would easily forgive a user to make this mistake, it is unacceptable for someone who has aspirations of earning money off players through an affiliate site themed around slot statistics.

Even if you had all the data in the world, even if your statistics were correct, even then you can not EVER predict a random event based on the historical analysis of past random events. Because you cannot predict what will happen, you can give no advise on what to do ..

In short - this advise you give - its complete bs. It will not help the player one single bit. In fact if you look at what the real effect of your advice will be then you see that players that take your advise will end up doing worse.

Why ?

You're advising players to move casino's without generating playthrough. It will not at all give them better odds to get at their normal cashout balance, but what it will do is reduce the playthrough of these players at each of these casinos .. it will double the transaction cost every time a player switches and the only parties that will get a better result are the money processors and the affiliates. At the end of the day, when this player asks the casino for a bonus, they will just see very little playthrough and huge transaction costs.

Your current advise is bad advise that will effect the net result for the player negatively.



Below are the figures I have calculated for May. A total of 832 sessions were collected. I only received 9 sessions from Boss Media platforms. Remember they are sessions I have received from the players and not what the actual software companies may or may not provide.

I decided to change the "Free Spins per dollar" to "Free Spins per 100 spins". The same goes for "Bonus Games". Surprisingly perhaps RTG offered more free spins per 100 but even that just broke the 1 Free spin per 100. This is alarming.

Many of those stats that I had collected showed many players to receive a lot more free spins after spinning at least 250+ during the one session, a higher stake per spin also showed to be more productive at getting more free spins and bonus games than playing at the lowest stake. I will be looking to add more to this by the end of June.

More stats can be found on the website, please do keep sending them to me on slotistics@slotistics.com The more I have the more I can find out.

If you like what I am doing there is a little "Donate" button on the site, all donations kindly accepted! Best of luck and will hopefully have more for you at the end of the June!

I am hoping to provide more on specific slot machines, actual casinos, IE Rushmore versus Cherry Red, and most popular slots on each platform and the average amount of spins taken before winning free spins, bonus games and a win over $50 in one spin.

Please remember I cannot do it without your help so please take a minute or so to jot some of your notes down!

Thanks once again to all who sent me their's and Keep those stats coming!


ShyGuy, you need to take this very serious. I appreciate your enthusiasm and the effort you have put in, but these serious flaws need to be addressed. Just like putting on a white coat doesn't make someone a doctor, being able to open excel doesn't make you a statistician .. and certainly does not put you in a position where you are qualified to advise people how to spend their money - especially not if you plan on earning money on that yourself.). Someone who does a job they are not qualified for, and is looking to earn his money with it, in my book - is a charlatan. You are clearly lacking qualifications for the enterprise you are undertaking and you need to get the skills required now.

Rusty, Scooter,

As far as sample sizes go, 10.000 is a joke. On 100.000 spins and your average slot machine you should still expect to see +-5% easily, on 500.000 spins still +-2% ..

I'll get some actual data from one of our slots and will make a little overview.

Enzo.
 
As far as sample sizes go, 10.000 is a joke. On 100.000 spins and your average slot machine you should still expect to see +-5% easily, on 500.000 spins still +-2% ..

I'll get some actual data from one of our slots and will make a little overview.


Well "average slot machine" is a pretty wide statement and I don't play your slots because the variance is too high for me.
I said as much 2 or 3 years ago so having you select a slot and data to suit your argument doesn't really appeal to me, especially since I am referring to different software.
That said I am no statistician and open to being corrected with real world results (playlogs) as long as I can verify the data.

You state 10% cover easily over 100,000 spins?
So what would you say over 10,000 spins? :confused:

If 10,000 spins at 20 lines is a "joke" as you put it (and I have already explained in simple terms why it is not and you have not address that argument) then that should be reflected in my playlogs and everybody elses, right?
I should have wildly fluctuating RTP over each 10,000 spins on the same slots, right?
Wrong.

So either my stats are abnormal, your software does not operate in a way similar to RTG and MGS or you are wrong.

You also neglect the rest of my arguments as to why small sample sizes can be useful when analysing playlogs.
If I am looking at an event with a 1 in 10 probability a data set of 200,000 is decent.

Remember I am not making a statement that theoretical RTP can be accurately deduced from 200,000 games (10,000 spinsx20 lines) I am stating that it can be useful data, especially when we know the statistical probabilities of all outcomes on a slot. (reel strip and paytable)

How many times would you need to spin a 3 reel slot before you could make a statement the bonus symbol on the 3rd reel is negatively weighted?
Exactly.
 
Well "average slot machine" is a pretty wide statement and I don't play your slots because the variance is too high for me.
I said as much 2 or 3 years ago so having you select a slot and data to suit your argument doesn't really appeal to me, especially since I am referring to different software.
That said I am no statistician and open to being corrected with real world results (playlogs) as long as I can verify the data.

You state 10% cover easily over 100,000 spins?
So what would you say over 10,000 spins? :confused:

Rusty,

Here's a sample split in groups of 100k spins of tut. The paytable of tut is exactly the same as that of mg's isis game. Yes its a high variant machine, maybe shyguy can tell us how much isis he has in his logs .. It's one of the popular mg games so I wouldn't be surprised it is one of the games in there.

At 3Dice it is our most popular game (see Old / Expired Link). I feel these two reasons make it a good choice for examination. Feel free to suggest another 3Dice game to me.

The data below is an overview of 15 groups of 100k spins of data from may and a bit in april. I've listed the average RTP for each group, and for the 3 groups of 500k spins you can make from the same data.

Code:
100k spins : 96.47
           : 96.59   
           : 91.62
           : 93.11
	   : 86.16    92.79
		
   
           : 96.16
           : 94.60
           : 93.46
           : 94.77
           : 100.94   95.99

           : 95.70
           : 94.35
           : 101.69
           : 94.14    
           : 96.02    96.38  

100k spins  : 86.16 to 101.69 = 15.53 % = +- ~8%
500k spins  : 92.79 to 96.38  = 3.59  % = +- ~2%
1.5M spins  : 95.05
 10M spins  : 94.89

As you can see, groups of 100k spins in just this sample of 15 range from 86.16 to 101.69 .. almost 16% .. if shygy displays any RTP's on groups of data as small as that size, then my estimate of 5% of in either direction is still a conservative number. In other words with samples of this size he could print 95 but it could just as well be 90 or 100 .. big difference if you ask me ..

Even if you group 500k spins, the range is still 3.6% .. still a big error .. at the very least shygy needs to display how much data was used for the calculations so that the numbers can be read.

If 10,000 spins at 20 lines is a "joke" as you put it (and I have already explained in simple terms why it is not and you have not address that argument) then that should be reflected in my playlogs and everybody elses, right?
I should have wildly fluctuating RTP over each 10,000 spins on the same slots, right?
Wrong.

So either my stats are abnormal, your software does not operate in a way similar to RTG and MGS or you are wrong.

Lol Rusty, I didn't mean to come on so strong. Your sample only proves my point tho .. I mean you say it yourself .. you add a single spin to it and it jumps 2.5% .. not exactly very stable now is it ?

A big win that occurs one in a million has a 1 in 1000 chance of re-occuring within 1000 spins after it was last hit. So one in 100 sessions of 10000 will have two of those jackpots .. that's 5% right there ..

If _any_ single spin still makes that much of a difference then you have no stable sample at all. You've said it yourself .. a jackpot win like that should only be a fraction of the RTP.

Your example only proves my point. 10.000 spins is simply not enough to do any type of RTP statistics .. and you would need no more information than the fact that there are events with frequencies that range into the millions. Many of the events that make up a big part of the pay of a slot occur less than 1 in 10.000 spins naturally .. so a sample of that size simply cannot be used to measure that. Most samples wont have those events and they will have lower than expected RTP's and the sample's that do will have much higher than expected RTP's.

You also neglect the rest of my arguments as to why small sample sizes can be useful when analysing playlogs.
If I am looking at an event with a 1 in 10 probability a data set of 200,000 is decent.

agreed. The idea of measuring the number of freespins/bonuses received per 100 spins is absolutely valid. And to determine that number, using the general rule of thumb (30 times frequency), and say a worst case scenario of a slot that only hits theoretically once every 250 spins, you can analyze with reasonable certainty on a sample of 250x30=7500 spins. But you should not publish an RTP for that - it is meaningless. You can publish the average number of bonuses received and if their expected frequency is 1 in 250 or higher then that number will be a valid number.

However, the numbers published by shygy are obviously not correct, not the RTP's and none of the other numbers. For example, and as I stated in my first post he claims 1 feature (bonus or freespin) once every 1500 or so spins on MG .. to measure that type of frequency he would need a sample of 1500*30 = 45000 .. so either he doesn't even have that many spins .. or he has made mistakes in his analysis/calculations.

Remember I am not making a statement that theoretical RTP can be accurately deduced from 200,000 games (10,000 spinsx20 lines) I am stating that it can be useful data, especially when we know the statistical probabilities of all outcomes on a slot. (reel strip and paytable)

How many times would you need to spin a 3 reel slot before you could make a statement the bonus symbol on the 3rd reel is negatively weighted?
Exactly.

lol. define 'negatively weighted' .. many 3 reel slots are pretty straightforward .. i.e. 100 slots/reel .. jackpot occurs 1 in (100*100*100) .. or one in a million.

Kindest Regards,

Enzo
 
I don't have the time or ability to back up all these arguments but can I just say that the things Enzo have said are correct.

As Enzo said moving softwares will not change your luck. However it will alter your variance and the HA may well be different so your results will certainly be different if you change platforms. But it has no validity as a money making strategy and I think that is the point that Enzo is trying to make.

It really is very simple. If you don't play with a bonus the HA is gonna get you sooner or later. So you are better off showing some loyalty and getting a bonus than switching softwares and playing without bonus.

While we are here I would like to mention another myth I have heard from slot players and also the odd affiliate. This is the one that says if you are winning on a slot, have had a feature win etc then switch machines. Again the only difference it will make is with variance and HA. The machines are random. Just because you have won $300 on Thunderstruck doesn't mean you won't win another $700. If you switch to a machine with identical variance and HA is won't make a blind bit of difference. I know it's hard to believe but the RNG really does not care what machine you are playing or how much you have won. RNG's are unsentimental unfeeling beasts. It is us that have the emotions, not them.
 
Hello, seasoned gamblers at CM. Been awhile since I posted here, but always lurking around and couldn’t resist a reply into this thread.

First off I can’t give enough credit to “Shyguy” for his efforts and I’m sure endless hours he must have invested with the hopes of bringing to light what actually is being dealt to the public from online casinos. Although most if not all players might agree with the numbers he posted based on their personal play, I personally think some of them (based on my past play) are actually on the high side.

Regardless what any of us personally think and although the data he produced (or math) may be accurate based on the information he was given; the assumed outcome is completely wrong and completely out of line.

First I want to explain how land based casinos RTP’s are estimated in a real regulated industry. I also would like to note that this monthly information is always available in magazines like Casino Player. In addition I would think these land based casinos with their RTP’s printed all over the place are proud of them and actually do use them as a marketing tool.

First of all every group of machines are broken down as per denomination from 5 cent machines all the way up to the highest. Whatever the regulatory commission demands (clearly stated in their licenses to operate a casino) which can range from let’s say for arguments sake minimum 80% to max 100%. Every month these numbers are checked and must fall within that range.

Of course this public information could make or break a casino. They obviously (the casinos) pay careful attention to this and ultimately use these numbers to draw customers.

The RTP’s that are publicly and monthly printed are actually the inverse of numbers reported to the regulatory agencies as “slot hold” which is the portion of slot wagers held by the casinos as profit. Actually its how much money was lost by slot players as per group. Another words they take the gross income for each denomination group, subtract “slot hold” reverse the numbers to reveal the actual RTP. In a group of lets say all the $1.00 machines (combined), some may be set at 80% rtp, others at 99% rtp and many in between. As long as all the individual groups of machines combined fall into the range authorized by the regulator’s license which is monitored every month, the casino can keep operating. Of course with this open public information the casinos are forced into staying competitive. In addition these monthly numbers do in fact change constantly per denomination and per casino, so after each year of compiling all this monthly information, publications then get it certified by some huge accounting firm and award the best payout casino of the year to the winner. Since this has been going on for decades you could only assume theses publications are accurate or I’m certain they would be facing serious legal issues.

It’s sad and a shame that a good person like “Shyguy” is motivated to give up his time and even attempt a task out of his league for the sake of trying to put together and provide any type of information for the benefit of online players. Unfortunately, he would need to know every single dollar that was ever actually wagered on any single game to be accurate. Even if he gathered over millions of spins he couldn't with fact conclude any accuracy. Whatever amount of spins he collects there could be 10 times many more he didn't collect. And since the same game has the power to except all different size betting denominations, makes his diagnosis completely useless.

Enzo and 3Dice casino may run a tight ship but transparency is not in their vocabulary. And with no regulation even 3Dice is only a stones throw from being the next rogue. It must kill them to watch all these other casinos raking in the dough with all the rogue tactics being used online.

If there was any type of regulation what so ever in the slightest form being enforced with online casinos there would be no need for good people that care and feel that need to go through such excruciating efforts , even if in vein for the sake of some sort of gauge to judge which casino is better. The fact that Enzo even entertained this thread gives some credibility to his site, but where are all the rest of the so called veteran advocates or reps? Can anyone defend their RTP’s?

Not to be insulting here Enzo, but why should we believe the RTP’s you printed? Because you say we should? Or because some alleged independent lab (hired by your company) says that’s what they are? All these independent firms are in bed with the casinos. I’m sure your firm is just like Technical Systems Testing lab the company that handles RTG and offers their seal of approval for honest RNG’s. So please send me a copy of yours so in case I run short on toilet paper I have some backup.

I recently sense online players are now getting forced into realizing what’s really going on. Online casinos, fraudulent regulation agencies, fraudulent money processes, fraudulent testing, there all sleeping in the same bed.

Show me all the rogue cases resolved by Gaming Authorities? Why do all software providers knowingly and willingly supply rogues? Why do all money processes knowingly and willingly finance rogues? Because when there’s $billions$ flying around nothing matters, not you, not me, not the horse (or computer) we road in on, not even the fear of god, (to some). The almighty dollar is the only thing that matters.

What makes this whole thing even worst is that many employees working for these casinos are given some type of title and are no doubt completely out of the real loop. Their told what to believe and more then likely just go about their job thinking everything is just fine. The truth of the matter is most of them don’t have a clue, and defend their bread on their table only based on what their told. Many employees do quit when they catch on and many others could care less.

Although I no longer gamble at casinos online, (a little poker here and there) I’m hell bent (not sure why) to do what I can and may even become part of a true online casino advocate. While these discussions are now taking place along with the compilation of actual facts, you may not have heard the last of me just yet…

Remember, when risking your money in an online casino, the gamble became a gamble.

Good luck all,

Carl
 
Enzo,

Can you please clarify this statement for me?

"Final Outcome Distribution Tests were performed using confidence intervals between 95% and 98%, which are documented intervals of confidence for such statistical analysis."



In addition to what I said above, please don't consider anything I said as a direct attack towards you. You are one of the few with credibility.
 

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