Online black jack crazy low % bust hands

[jshort]

Ok I will re do the sessions I already done I have noted each specific card so I can take out what's necessary , thanks again much appriciated

Oh man, I think you will need toomuch data! I always figured that if someone's slots, BJ or whatever was rigged, then so must be their "double or nothing" feature. This would be the easiest to verify (even mathematically!).

 

[Mickyia]

Hi, these are the results of the past few days playing one hand black jack using 6 decks, my bets were usually £5 or £10
With very occasional increase.

These figures are aimed at the % bust that the dealer has, and in particular the soft cards 2,3,4,5,6

Hands. Dealer bust. Dealer 1st card. Average % bust
Not bust against bust
2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Hands now

175. 39. 152 10/1. 12/4. 8/7. 4/8. 6/6. 25.6%
168. 35. 147. 8/3. 10/2. 6/2. 5/7. 11/8. 23.8%
171. 46. 154. 8/7. 9/7. 3/3. 8/7. 7/10. 29.9%
161. 35. 145 10/3. 5/5. 7/6. 7/3. 6/2. 24.1%
157. 24. 148 12/6. 5/1. 8/4. 10/4. 7/2. 16.2%
85. 16. 79. 2/3. 4/3. 2/2. 5/0. 4/0. 20.3%
171. 44. 152 4/2. 13/4. 8/5. 10/3. 7/3. 28.9%
165. 35. 148 8/3. 8/2. 5/5. 5/5. 7/5. 23.6%
166. 34. 150 7/1. 5/3. 3/3. 8/9. 10/7. 22.7%
121. 31. 111 5/4. 6/2. 2/3. 6/3. 7/5. 27.9%
165. 34. 160 15/2. 14/3. 1/3. 10/9. 6/3. 21.2%
112. 21. 98 5/2. 2/5. 3/2. 5/4. 4/1. 21.4%
162. 32. 136 5/1. 6/4. 7/4. 5/4. 7/3. 23.5%
176. 35. 151 10/2. 9/2. 5/2. 8/1. 7/5. 23.2%
163. 33. 147 11/1. 10/0. 7/4. 10/4. 8/6. 22.4%
126. 30. 122 11/5. 1/1. 5/4. 6/2. 7/4. 24.6%
172. 32. 156 8/4. 10/4. 4/2. 8/2. 9/5. 20.5%
170. 36. 148 6/3. 9/8. 8/3. 4/1. 7/5 24.3%
162. 30. 148 9/2. 6/3. 6/4. 8/5. 8/3 20.3%
164. 35. 151 13/3. 7/6. 10/5. 4/5. 6/3. 23.2%

I have added 3 new ones at the bottom

 

[hedgehok]

Your data is still flawed. You have not amended the numbers accordingly as I suggested. You are implying that you never hit a 12 against a 2 or 3. Is that correct?

You should leave this analysis business to people that are really good at it. It's not very intuitive and gets you easily in tin-foil-hat-mode.

 

[Mickyia]

Hi, sorry not sure what you mean

 

[hedgehok]

If the dealer shows a 2 and you have a 12, what are you doing?

 

[Mickyia]

Most times I stay, but every now and again I will take a card depending on how the card are running ,but not sure what that's got to do with anything, maybe I'm missing something

 

[hedgehok]

You have not amended your numbers of your first 17 sessions at all regarding the bust/no-busts in your analysis. When you occasionally hit on 12 you would have busted at some of them and you need to remove these hands from the "not-busted" column in EVERY case. I have explained that to you before.

When you bust you have to ALWAYS remove this hand from your analysis.

I wanted to guide you finding the correct solution yourself so that you can see that the game works fine and is in fact random. I don't know if you have ever attended classes in statistics which are very helpful in understanding this kind of stuff.

 

[Mickyia]

Ok see what you mean, but as I stay 95% of the time , I will check but maybe the odd occasion I have bust on 12 if dealer has between 2-6, no never been to any classes all I know is I lost 16 of those 17 sessions , and 2 years ago on William hill lost every session for 4 monrths and losing huge amounts of money

 

[neilw]

I've been following this thread and I have to admit I'm struggling to understand what the OP's issue is with dealer bust hands.

I would have thought the most important stat is the number of hands you won against the dealers hands in a session. As a player you can win by having better cards than the dealer or by the dealer busting out. That would seem a better metric to analyse and give you a better indication of how close you are to RTP for that session. Remember though that RTP is calculated over 1000's if not 10.0000's hands, so playing less you will see fluctuations against RTP, bot positive and negative.

Varying your initial bet during a session will also have an impact on your bankroll and therefore whether you win or lose in a session. Keeping your stake constant will give a better idea against RTP.

 

[hedgehok]

I've been following this thread and I have to admit I'm struggling to understand what the OP's issue is with dealer bust hands.

I would have thought the most important stat is the number of hands you won against the dealers hands in a session. As a player you can win by having better cards than the dealer or by the dealer busting out. That would seem a better metric to analyse and give you a better indication of how close you are to RTP for that session. Remember though that RTP is calculated over 1000's if not 10.0000's hands, so playing less you will see fluctuations against RTP, bot positive and negative.

Varying your initial bet during a session will also have an impact on your bankroll and therefore whether you win or lose in a session. Keeping your stake constant will give a better idea against RTP.

He initially complained about the bust-percentage being far below the expected 28.2%. His problem is that his analysis does also include a lot of game-rounds where the dealer will have a bust-probability of 0 (Player BJ and Player bust) and he would need to remove these hands from his analysis.

You would need to do the following:

1) Observe a proper amount of game-rounds (say 1,000, better 5,000 or 10,000), also possible in fun-mode
2) Remove all hands with Player-BJ and Player-bust from your observation
3) Count the remaining game-rounds
4) for every dealer upcard separately: divide the dealer-busts by total hands-played

For example:
Dealer Upcard 8
-500 hands played
-amount of player-BJ 25, amount of player busts 150, remaining hands observed 325, dealer busted 75 times

75/(500-25-150) = 0.2308 = 23.08% dealer-busts against upcard 8

5) repeat this procedure with all dealer-upcards
6) weight your numbers. This is necessary because you will remove proportionally more hands where you play against 7-A (because you need to hit till 16) and to avert distortion.

example (simplified), remaining hands after step 2):
dealer upcard 2: 480
dealer upcard 3: 480
dealer upcard 4: 500
dealer upcard 5: 500
dealer upcard 6: 500
dealer upcard 7: 325
dealer upcard 8: 325
dealer upcard 9: 325
dealer upcard 10/J/Q/K: 325 each
dealer upcard A: 325

Total hands remaining for analysis: 5060

5060/13 = 389.23

example: weighting for upcard 8: 325/389.23 = 0.8350 x 23.08% = 19.27%

This needs to be done for all other upcards.

7) Sum up all weightings and divide it by 13.
8) Your final result should be between 27.2%-29.2% (confidence level 95%) with a sample size of 6,500 (assumption).


I think OP's problem is mainly his playing-strategy. He should consider learning proper basic strategy. I'm sure his RTP-results will improve a lot. And no guarantee that my calculation is correct. I also assumed basic strategy with the underlying numbers. However the playing-strategy has no impact on dealer bust%.

 

[Mickyia]

Hi thanks for all your input , but the only thing I disagree with is my Basic strategy I think I have been playing long enough to know what is basic strategy but other than saying I stand on 12 against 2 most times I don't think I gave anything away !

 

[hedgehok]

I found a little mistake, sorry:

at 6) "example: weighting for upcard 8: 325/389.23 = 0.8350 x 23.08% = 19.27%"

corrected: "example weighting for upcard 8: 389.23/325 = 1.1976 x 23.08% = 27.64%

 

[pmutts]

Online Blackjack is tougher and the house busts less often.

Yes, the above statement is true. I am specifically referring to any computer game dealt from 2 or more decks randomized prior to each round. The reason the house bust less often is because shoes tend to develop clumps of low cards and clumps of high cards not possible in single deck games.

House is considerably less likely to bust off the top of a 2 - 8 deck game than with a single deck. In theory, each hand dealt by the computer would be the same as a dealer shuffling between each hand and playing off the top on every hand. So, you will see the house bust less in these games. Do you ever see a dealer in a single deck game draw to 21 with 8 cards or even 9 cards?

Another big factor is that you are much more likely to push on a blackjack in multi-decks. If you play online, I recommend you play a single deck game if you can find one that is "random."

Back in the early Os, (the glory days) I used to have incredible runs against the old Microgaming Single Deck game -- deal Euro style/ no hole card. I had many truly unbelievable winning runs at many casinos. I took my share of beatings too.

 

[neilw]

If you play online, I recommend you play a single deck game if you can find one that is "random."

Or play at a live casino where the deck isn't shuffled before each new hand, although you'll only find 6 & 8 deck games at online Live Casinos and the shoe is generally cut about 2 thirds through.