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Onile Casinos Fairness : some clever points to not forget......

Discussion in 'Online Casino Archive through Dec 2001' started by doc_infinity, Jun 29, 2001.

  1. doc_infinity

    doc_infinity Guest

    Hi to ya all,


    The following text has been extracted from the SALIU BBS ( You must register/login in order to see the link. )

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    Lately, there is clear indication that my opinion on cyber gambling should have been expressed in grosser terms. You should know that I have received business offers from several online casinos. The offers have a common feature. I am offered at least 10% of a player for his/her lifetime! No, it is not a new form of slavery! If I refer a player to a cyber casino, I receive 10% of what a player gambles for as long as that player gambles at that particular casino!

    Lets take a mathematical look at the infamous 10% referral fee. Lets say a player gambles $100 at a casino. If I referred the player, I get $10. But how much does the casino expect to gain from the same player? The quick answer is over 11% of the players betting. But why would the casino settle for just 1% in profit, while giving an outsider 10 times as much? Maybe the casino expects to get at least 20% of a players bankroll. That figure makes more sense. They would split the profit margin with me. Maybe they expect more than 20% in takeout, perhaps something in the neighborhood of 30%. Now, a serious question arises automatically. What games can casinos implement that yield 30% or just 20% in percentage advantage? The state lotteries charge an abominable 50% in house edge. The lotteries are run, however, by governments. The governments are permitted many things not permitted to mere mortals. The cyber casinos are not run by the governments. They can only offer more attractive games, as far as the percentage advantage is concerned. Those who gamble online are mostly attracted to games such as blackjack, roulette, craps, baccarat, and sports betting. The house edge at blackjack is less than 1% if the player knows the so-called basic strategy. Even if a dumb player would mimic the dealer, the house edge would not be higher than 8%. The house edge at the American roulette (worse than the single-zero European roulette) is just above 5%. Even the worst possible bet at the American roulette (the 5 number bet) is still under 8% as percentage disadvantage (to the player).

    Then, when the bulk of a cyber casino business is blackjack and roulette, how can the casinos offer 10% referral incentives? The answer is obvious now. The house advantage or the percentage advantage applies to fairly random drawings. In a physical casino, the roulette spins are the result of fair randomness. The blackjack hands are the results of fair randomness. (We are not talking here of extremely rare cases of slight of hand or roulette ball manipulations.) Fair randomness may be the rule of the physical casino. It appears clearly that fair randomness is not the rule in cyber gambling space. Who can verify fairness? Nobody, right now. Third parties may verify the software random number generators. The random generators may prove to be fair. Problem is, the random number generators can be and are widely used by the business software in a manner that assures profits for the casino. I wrote about it on the More Gambling page; also, other posts on the 2nd BBS index page. I also stated that even the physical casinos use crooked software at the blackjack slot machines.
    I am also aware that there are real winners at the cyber casinos. No doubt about it! The business software know exactly how many players are playing at any given moment. The business software has an exact account of the overall profit. It must be somewhere over 20% of all money gambled. If Player X bets real big, cut him down! Find a decent player who does not try to break the house and make him a winner! Let one or two players win every day, as long as our profit margin is guaranteed (every day, or, say, every week).

    Only sport betting can be fair in cyber space. The casinos take out at least 10% no matter what. No casino can influence a game result. Of course, a problem still remains. You win, but the cyber casino will never pay you! There are such cases, but I understand they are rare (percentage-wise). I noticed something else, however. I think it happened after I released SPORTS.EXE, BELLBET.EXE, BETUS.EXE. Online bookies decreased the payouts for parlay betting. I remember the payout for an 8-team parlay was something like 150 to 1. The odds for an 8-team parlay win are 256-to-1. The house edge becomes 41.4% (150/256 = 58.6%; 100% - 58% = 41.4%). Ive seen online bookies paying now 70-to-1 for an 8-team parlay! The house edge jumps to 72.7%! Stay away from such lice!

    ..............."

    Ion Saliu

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    Bye

    Doc Infinity
     
  2. babe

    babe Dormant account

    You are confusing win percentage with hold. True, a game like roulette has a fixed win percentage for the house of 5.26%. Blackjack varies depending on the skill of the player. These percentages take effect every bet. If a online player deposits $100 and makes ten $10 bets, or twenty $5 bets, on roulette, he will on the average lose $5.26 of his money. The percentage is calculated on every bet he makes, not just his initial deposit. Since the average player rolls his money over more than once, the casino stands to make more than 5.26% of the deposit.

    The hold is the total money the casino wins. Deposits minus withdrawals. Same in B&M casinos, cash down the box minus chips out of the rack. I have heard that online casinos hold more than 50% of deposits. (I don't have this number verified).
    This is because the average player is rolling their money over many times and this is how they can afford to give away 10% for referrals.
     

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