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One for the statisticians?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by Simmo!, Jun 24, 2004.

    Jun 24, 2004
  1. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    Ok..heres a question:

    Lets say you deposit $50 and get another $50 bonus. The Minimum Wagering Requirements prior to withdrawal are 20x deposit and bonus. For the sake of argument we're at an MG casino.

    Lets say you get lucky & win to a total fund of $500. Now you want to cash out as much of that as possible. But so far you've only done 3x. So you're going to stick autoplay on a game and try and keep as much of the $500 as safe as possible.

    Would you choose a game that paid out lots and low on the basis of a better variance? Or would you choose a game like JoB VP with a higer expected return? Thunderstruck? Or Aces & faces? What denomination do you play at?

    What would be the best bet? Or is it 6 of one half a dozen of the other?

    Cheers

    Simmo!
     
  2. Jun 24, 2004
  3. hhcfreebie

    hhcfreebie Dormant account

    Occupation:
    research
    Location:
    USA
    You'd like to play a game with highest payout AND lowest variance if it is possible,
    Here is a rough estimate:
    JoB VP payout 99.5% STD 4.42 (per dollar bet)
    BJ payout 99.6% STD 1.16
    Ace and face VP payout 99.3% STD 4.59
    All slots payout 95-90% STD VERY HIGH.
    It's obvious the best bet is BJ with minimum bet (2?). The second best is JoB VP in 25 cents level (1.25 per hand).
    Never ever play any slot if you want to preserve your bankroll.
     
  4. Jun 24, 2004
  5. jpm

    jpm Dormant account

    I'd go with JoB at .25 level.
     
  6. Jun 25, 2004
  7. GrandMaster

    GrandMaster Ueber Meister CAG

    Occupation:
    Mathematician by day, online gambler by night.
    Location:
    UK
    I agree totally with hhcfreebie. You can even play Vegas Strip BJ and the other Viper BJ variants at $1. I would not recommend VP, because the variance is much larger, and the distribution is skewed. Full pay JoB pays 99.54%, but if you don't hit a royal or a straight flush, your expected return is only 97%. If you just want to preserve your capital, BJ is much better.
     
  8. Jun 25, 2004
  9. jpm

    jpm Dormant account

    But you have to make sure the strategy table is correct for the variant you're playing, if you are going to have viper do the work.
     
  10. Jun 25, 2004
  11. GrandMaster

    GrandMaster Ueber Meister CAG

    Occupation:
    Mathematician by day, online gambler by night.
    Location:
    UK
    I did a rough calculation once, the mistakes increase the house edge only by 0.01% or 0.02%. This makes it even more puzzling why MG has not fixed them.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2004
  12. Jun 25, 2004
  13. sw2003

    sw2003 Dormant account

    Location:
    somewhere :)
    I agree that Vegas strip or Vegas downtown BJ is the best if your goal is to conserve as much of your $500 as possible. To achieve this goal you want as little variance as possible and BJ has the lowest standard deviation of them all.
     
  14. Jun 25, 2004
  15. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    I guessed BJ was a good bet but i've noticed most of the bonus MWR's state no BJ, Craps or Roulette....the old red/black thing i guess.

    Sounds like JoB is the best bet so far of the other games
     
  16. Jun 25, 2004
  17. dickens1298

    dickens1298 Dormant account

    Location:
    LA, California
    I tend to stick to Fortune Lounge for MG games, so my approach reflects that.

    Others have already weighed in with their statistics. Mine isn't necessarily statistically sound - but it usually works with patience.

    Since the best statistical game is BJ, you'd obviously want to stick to that. But FL limits BJ to 20% of the wagering requirement. Once I hit that limit, I continue to play BJ, and use half of session winnings on a slot game like Thunderstruck.Thunderstruck offers a doubling feature, which may actually increase the overall expectation on the game, but definitely helps with meeting the WR more quickly. You can also hit some nice streaks on Thunderstruck - which is also quite nice.

    Yes, I realize that I'm essentially subjecting my capital to double jeopardy - negative expectation games in BJ and slots. But for some reason or another, it has worked for me.

     
  18. Jun 25, 2004
  19. sw2003

    sw2003 Dormant account

    Location:
    somewhere :)
    Winning streaks in Thunderstuck? It depends on the day and time.
    I once hit a 3 ram free spin which produced two more 3 ram free spins during
    the free spin. Then again at other times the machine just gobbled up all your cash without any nice wins at all.

    I have been avoiding slots ever since.
     
  20. Jun 25, 2004
  21. dickens1298

    dickens1298 Dormant account

    Location:
    LA, California
    For me, BJ has been a more consistent winner - which is why I suggested taking half of your BJ profits and "blowing" it on Thunderstruck... for WR purposes. With the doubling feature in Thunder, you can reach WR all that much quicker, and if you start hitting those triple rams - so much the better...
     
  22. Jun 25, 2004
  23. hhcfreebie

    hhcfreebie Dormant account

    Occupation:
    research
    Location:
    USA
    Is this "doubling feature" similiar to video poker's "double or nothing"?
    I have to remind you that all the bets placed on "double or nothing" are not considered as "wager" for MG software. There is no comp points, nor can you fullfill wager requirement with "double or nothing".
    Only playtech casinos count the doubling bets as real bets.
     
  24. Jun 25, 2004
  25. jpm

    jpm Dormant account

    Its more accurately described as a 'gamble' feature. You can choose to gamble your last win or collect it. If you gamble, you can choose red or black to double your win or one of the 4 card suits to quadruple your win. The game then picks one of 4 aces and you win or lose based on that card. It also keeps a history of cards picked previously for you.

    IMO Thunderstruck is WAY too streaky to use for any serious w/r play if you want to preserve your stake. When it hits, its GREAT. When its cold, it is brutal.
     
  26. Jun 26, 2004
  27. dickens1298

    dickens1298 Dormant account

    Location:
    LA, California
    Perhaps it's a glitch, but Thunderstruck's doubling feature DOES count - or at least it DID when I had played it - towards the WR.
     
  28. Jun 26, 2004
  29. hhcfreebie

    hhcfreebie Dormant account

    Occupation:
    research
    Location:
    USA
    That's nice. I hope this doubling feature has no house edge as well, just like the doubling feature of VP.
    On second thought, it's a slot and it counts toward WR. I strongly suspect that this doubling feature is not "house edge free". :rolleyes:
    Did anyone record their doubling result?
     
  30. Jun 26, 2004
  31. spearmaster

    spearmaster RIP Ted

    Occupation:
    Devil's Advocate
    Location:
    Heaven
    What jpm said. If Thor's out to lunch and the rams headbutting each other, you might as well call the casino and ask them to remove the money from your account.

    The doubling feature, as far as I know, is fair. It is the same thing as those found on Australian pokies/slots. However, I wouldn't make a habit of choosing the suits hoping to get 4x :)
     

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