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Odds of Royal Flush?

Discussion in 'Casinomeister's Poker Room' started by nafanny29, Mar 17, 2005.

    Mar 17, 2005
  1. nafanny29

    nafanny29 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    financail adviser
    Location:
    London, England
    I was wondering what are the odds of completing a Royal Flush by the river (Holdem) when playing 2 Royal cards ie. AKs, QTs etc

    My mate has had 3 online and ive had 0 and weve both played over 100000 hands. Mine mostly on Crypto, his at many sites (apex and party mostly)
     
  2. Mar 18, 2005
  3. pokeraddict

    pokeraddict Webmaster

    Occupation:
    Pro Poker Player
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    The odds of making a royal is about 1 in 34,000 before cards are dealt. If you have 2 thats a long math problem i cant do quickly. Perhaps a math wiz can tell us, ,if not I will do my best.
     
  4. Mar 18, 2005
  5. nafanny29

    nafanny29 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    financail adviser
    Location:
    London, England
    Wow if the odds are 34000 to 1 before cards are dealt then im seriously overdue a royal. Thanks for the reply pokeraddict. :notworthy
     
  6. Mar 18, 2005
  7. paul1

    paul1 Dormant account


    I just ran AK-suited a million times on Poker Probe. There was a little over 600 royals. I guess that is about 1600 to 1.

    So nafanny29, you better get back to the table. :D
     
  8. Mar 18, 2005
  9. nafanny29

    nafanny29 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    financail adviser
    Location:
    London, England
    I will mate, thank you and pokeraddict for your info, much appreciated.

    I am seriously overdue my 1st royal though!!!
     
  10. Mar 18, 2005
  11. Aindreas_Daoc

    Aindreas_Daoc Dormant account

    Location:
    USA
    FWIW, I have around 60k hands in PT, and maybe another 10-20k that I didn't record in PT, and haven't gotten a RF either.

    However, 1 in 34000 does sound about right if you go to the river, but remember often you will not go to the river.
     
  12. Mar 18, 2005
  13. pokeraddict

    pokeraddict Webmaster

    Occupation:
    Pro Poker Player
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    In 417,000 Pokertracker hands I have 4. You have to take into consideration the times you raised a start hand that could make a royal and everyone folded preflop or the number of times you flop 4 to a royal and everyone folds. Also its not just big suited cards that make it. One of my royals is from pocket queens.
     
  14. Mar 19, 2005
  15. nafanny29

    nafanny29 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    financail adviser
    Location:
    London, England
    Never thought of it like that. I guess im just about due my virgin royal then :D :D

    On a side note I would have have had 19 straight flushes with my hole cards according to pokertracker... alas only saw the flop 3 times :( :(
     
  16. Mar 19, 2005
  17. winbig

    winbig Keep winning this amount.

    Occupation:
    Bum
    Location:
    Pennsylvania

    But again, that would mean going to the river in most cases....19 is a rather high number considering...
     
  18. Mar 19, 2005
  19. GrandMaster

    GrandMaster Ueber Meister CAG

    Occupation:
    Mathematician by day, online gambler by night.
    Location:
    UK
    If I understand it correctly, you assume that you have two of the cards for the RF and you want to know the probability that the remaining 3 cards will show up among the 5 community cards.

    Using excel notation, combin(50,5)=2118760 ways of choosing the 5 community cards out of the 50 unseen cards, disregarding order. Three of these cards are fixed, and there are combin(47,2)=1081 ways of choosing the other 2 out the remaining 47. This makes the probability of having a RF 1081/2118760=1/1960=0.00051.

    It does not matter that there are other people at the table or how many there are, unless you know something about their cards.
     
  20. Mar 19, 2005
  21. paul1

    paul1 Dormant account

    Again, I ran some hands on Poker Probe. I matched AK-spades against AK-hearts, ran them 2,500,000 times. Between the two of them, they came up with about 3100 royal flushes out of 5 million hands.

    That's 1/1600.

    So, what am I doing wrong? :confused:
     

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