"Near Misses" in RTG slots

[debbiek]

I have played at various RTG casinos this year where there are frequent "near misses". This has been noted by various people over the internet. It doesn't seem this should happen in a random game. I personally don't believe these casinos (accredited or rogue) are practicing responsible gaming. See Article below:
>
> Kevin A. Harrigan1
>
> (1) Faculty of Arts, University of Waterloo, Dana Porter Library,
> 200
> University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
>
> Received: 17 August 2007 Accepted: 13 November 2007 Published online: 14
> December 2007
>
> Abstract Since 1983, slot machines in North America have used a computer
> and virtual reels to determine the odds. Since at least 1988, a technique
> called clustering has been used to create a high number of near misses,
> failures that are close to wins. The result is that what the player sees
> does not represent the underlying probabilities and randomness, and this
> misrepresented outcome will have some effect on the player's perceptions
> of the game, which may lead directly to classical and operant conditioning,
> the frustration effect, the perception of early wins, illusion of control,
> biased evaluation of outcomes, entrapment, and irrational thinking. We use
> transcripts of Nevada hearings to show that the initial proponents
> understood that virtual reels and near misses may have a detrimental
> psychological effect on the player. We conclude by suggesting that
> jurisdictions should consider the historical facts and research presented
> in this paper when pursuing responsible gaming practices for slot machines.

"Clustering" or whatever you call it is apparent in every RTG slot game.

 

[babs7262]

I kind of understand what you are saying as far as regular slots at B&M's but I dont understand the near miss when it comes to RTG video and RJ's. Random Jackpots dont have "an almost factor" it either comes up or it doesnt.

Maybe Im misreading the article. I tend to not purposly skip stuff. It looks to me like its saying your at a B&M and your playing say...triple 7's. You keep getting 2 out of 3 with the third just above the payline. THe person continues to play thinking its ready to hit because of the near misses. Is that what you mean?

Its an honest question lol. I just want to make sure I understand what your saying about RTG because Ive been playing them for atleast 2 yrs and never ran into (an almost hit) I either got something or didnt.

One thing I know for sure as I spent quite some time on is some of the slots dont have the wild in the reel at the time your playing. For instance...I was playing Honey to the Bee and never saw the big bee at all or another time the hive only showed up on the last reel once out of every 5 - 7 go arounds.
I notice on goldbeard sometimes the same thing happens. You can spin 8 times in a row and if the pirate isnt on the first three times, I instantly move on to another game.

 

[debbiek]

Take a look at games like Aztec Treasure and Crystal Waters. In Crystal Waters, the sailboats come up twice many times, but very rarely hits the third one anymore. This is the "Near Miss". Same thing with Aztec Treasure. How many times do the two symbols come up, but not the third which is required for the feature. That's why the bonus rounds are very few. They program the near misses so you'll continue to play thinking your close to getting a very much needed bonus round.

It's very frustrating as the article states and the player may tend to increase the wager thinking it is "close to hitting". In truly random games, the near miss does not happen over and over again as they often do in RTG software. That's how I related this article to playing online. I really wasn't thinking at all about the Random Jackpot. To me, that's a different story but don't feel that is random either.

 

[babs7262]

ahhh ok

I get what you mean. This does happen on crystal waters to me no matter which RTG I play at. For me personally, aztec always gives me the 3rd guy.

I get what you mean now. THanks

 

[tim5ny]

I have played at various RTG casinos this year where there are frequent "near misses". This has been noted by various people over the internet. It doesn't seem this should happen in a random game. I personally don't believe these casinos (accredited or rogue) are practicing responsible gaming. See Article below:
>
> Kevin A. Harrigan1
>
> (1) Faculty of Arts, University of Waterloo, Dana Porter Library,
> 200
> University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
>
> Received: 17 August 2007 Accepted: 13 November 2007 Published online: 14
> December 2007
>
> Abstract Since 1983, slot machines in North America have used a computer
> and virtual reels to determine the odds. Since at least 1988, a technique
> called clustering has been used to create a high number of near misses,
> failures that are close to wins. The result is that what the player sees
> does not represent the underlying probabilities and randomness, and this
> misrepresented outcome will have some effect on the player's perceptions
> of the game, which may lead directly to classical and operant conditioning,
> the frustration effect, the perception of early wins, illusion of control,
> biased evaluation of outcomes, entrapment, and irrational thinking. We use
> transcripts of Nevada hearings to show that the initial proponents
> understood that virtual reels and near misses may have a detrimental
> psychological effect on the player. We conclude by suggesting that
> jurisdictions should consider the historical facts and research presented
> in this paper when pursuing responsible gaming practices for slot machines.

"Clustering" or whatever you call it is apparent in every RTG slot game.

Wow..that shit is heavy! But doesn't everybody make slots that way?

 

[babs7262]

LOL Tim

I was thinking the same thing UNTIL she gave crystal waters as an example. This is why I love analogies so much lol.

She is right about a few. Infact when Isaw CWaters i laughed because I swear at that game constantly for having so many 2/3 sailboats. As I agree they are suppose to be that way, some of them go too far with the near misses like Crystal Waters and IMO Paradise

 

[reda]

yes i agree. i have played day after day sometimes and have 2 symbols on aztec and also crystal waters. after so long i get off. its only teasing. once in awhile the games will actually give you the feature and then it goes forever before it gives it again.

 

[KasinoKing]

Take a look at games like Aztec Treasure and Crystal Waters. In Crystal Waters, the sailboats come up twice many times, but very rarely hits the third one anymore. This is the "Near Miss". Same thing with Aztec Treasure. How many times do the two symbols come up, but not the third which is required for the feature. That's why the bonus rounds are very few. They program the near misses so you'll continue to play thinking your close to getting a very much needed bonus round.

I'm not defending RTG, cos I don't like their slots much and very rarely play them, but these 'near misses' are just the natural part of a random slot.

The chances of getting 2 symbols on reels 1 to 4 is probably something in the region of 1 in 10.

We know the 5th reel on most slots can have anything from 30 - 50 symbols, or even more.
I don't know how many symbols are on RTG reels, but lets just assume reel 5 has 45 symbols.
With only 3 symbols in the view, and one bonus symbol on the reel, the chances of hitting it are 1 in 15.

So that means roughly every 10 spins you will get 2 bonus symbols on R1-4, and 14 out of 15 times that you do, you will get a 'near miss'.

My figures are total guesswork, but the point is that with odds like these you could easily have a very long streak of not hitting the bonus rounds even with 2 symbols already in view.
What we really need to balance the argument out is people to post here when they get 3 bonus round in 100 spins or something. Variance swings both ways! (Funnily enough, people only seem to complain about the number of bonus rounds when they're not hitting).

KK

 

[babs7262]

Very Good Point KK!

THere are times when i get FS features one after the other on the Bee. There was this one time when Goldbeard was giving the feature every 3 spins like Vikings did a couple of times. THat does happen

To be honest, I dont mind the near miss if its a true near miss, what I mean is Sometimes on Honey to the bee, you dont see the hive roll by on the last reel and to me its not fair. I dont expect it to be a hive every time it goes around once but I have literally counted to the point that I had to move on because I was losing all my money trying to find out how long it took to show up.

I think theres a difference between near miss, and not being on the reel. Again, this is an observation and response to debbies question. Im not complaining because as I said before, Ill RTG until the end because I love the games. If I were a high roller or major depositer, that would be another story

 

[footdr]

REGARDING SEEING SYMBOLS ON THE REELS DURING SPIN"

What is seen when the reels are spinning has no bearing on the outcome as outcome has been determined before the reels quit spinning. Actually the instant you press spin.

This is evidenced when playing Microgaming slots. If you keep the "reset" window open during free spins you will see the win recorded before the reels have even stopped.

I also reset to zero after every spin that has a win.

 

[Rusty]

Certainly the reel animation is just a graphic representation of the result of the RNG but observation alone quickly proves what Babs is saying.
Certain symbols do indeed go AWOL on the reel animation.
This may not be noticeable to the casual player but to those of us who have played these slots regularly the effect and its outcome are quite obvious.

Now if the reel animation is just a representation then why should this be?
After all the disappearing symbol never suddenly appears on a win line.
It neither appears in the animation or in the final result.

These Two facts are at odds with each other but One explanation could be that the result is being manipulated in some way and the reel spin animation is resetting before a full cycle so it only appears that the symbol has gone missing.
Another explanation might be that the RTP has been dynamically adjusted by changing the reel layout, perhaps swapping the said symbol with a different symbol.
These effect are most noticeable when there is only One of a particular symbol on the reel layout.
Another noticeable effect is when you see the same symbol go past twice at the start of the spin so I know for a fact that the animations are reset but it is up to the player to decide why these glitches appear.
Because these effect always coincide with a long dry streak for me my conclusion is that the slots are not 100% random and independent of all previous results.

KK though makes a valid point;

For example if we assume for simplicity that each bonus/scatter symbol has a 1 in 7 chance of appearing in the window then the odds of Two scatters appearing 7X7 divided by the number of possible permutations (ie reels 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 2,3 2,4 2,5 3,4 3,5 4,5) 10 so 49/10= 5* (4.9) so the chances of Two scatters appearing in this scenario are 1 in 5.

the odds of 3 scatters are 7X7X7=343 and permutations are (1,2,3 1,2,4 1,2,5 1,3,4 1,3,5 1,4,5 2,3,4 2,3,5 2,4,5 3,4,5)10 so 343/10=34 (34.3) so the chances of 3
Three scatters appearing are 1 in 34.

So you can see that in this situation you would be Seven times more likely to hit Two scatters than to hit Three.
When you get to Four scatters the effect is much more pronounced because the initial odds are much higher and the permutations much fewer (5)

Unfortunately this does not fully explain the effects that Babs explains.
There are inordinate amount of times that Two scatters appear on reels One and Two and/or reels Four and Five without completing a set of Three.

Obvious examples are Jaquespott (Rival), Cleopatra (RTG), Halloweenies (MG) these three examples alone are proof positive for me that online slots do not operate in the way we are led to believe and very much suggests the clustering explanation may be correct.

The only thing that surprises me is the amount of observational and statistical evidence that is out there that conflicts with the Casinos claims the games are completely random with a unadjustable RTP set only by the paytable.

Can this thread be merged with the slots mechanics thread as I think it would add to it and Dogboy can offer alternative explanations.

 

[babs7262]

What is seen when the reels are spinning has no bearing on the outcome as outcome has been determined before the reels quit spinning. Actually the instant you press spin.

This is evidenced when playing Microgaming slots. If you keep the "reset" window open during free spins you will see the win recorded before the reels have even stopped.

I also reset to zero after every spin that has a win.

I totally understand plus agree with that foot dr...but its a mental thing! Lets be honest, if there was nothing to see would you still gamble?

 

[footdr]

ONLY ONE SLOT I WOULD RATHER SEE RESULT INSTEAD OF EACH SPIN....

I would rather just see my total win on GLADIATOR rather then wait out the slow, slow, slow 100 bonus spins. HAHA

 

[myfix]

what do you mean bout "reset" window

Hi there, I found all the posts interesting, I had an experience on RGT, Raindance, it actually kept hitting the "respins" so many times that the game finally closed down... I had won in excess of $600, too bad it was with rogue Casino (something I never knew exsisted until finding CM) but...

In the post about "reset" window and always setting back to zero, could you explain further on this.. I don't know how/where but would sure like to see how that works