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My 10/10 unit Bets Thread...make some money!

Discussion in 'Sportsbook Information' started by nomepunter, Oct 7, 2016.

    Oct 7, 2016
  1. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    I see most you play casino games and they are all -ev and in the long run you are going to only lose money. Casino games are for fun. But you need skilled games like sports betting or live poker to make money or use it as investment. I don't have patience for poker to sit down and play 8 hours a day, its more stressful than regular job! But sports betting on the other hand helped me a lot and I am doing well following certain picks. The 10/10 unit picks are the best. The 10/10 unit bet is a full scale bet. 10 units = 3% of the bankroll or 1 unit = 0.3% of the bankroll. 10/10 are very selective and some days there might be no bets. Weekends usually have more than one bet since there are many games to choose from. Last year October to December made 460 units with these picks. Hoping for the same this year.

    Today in NCAAF: Boston College +17.5 (1.91) against Clemson 10/10 units.
    Clemson is easily one of the top teams in the country along with Alabama and they had beat number 3 ranked Louisville in a close encounter last week. This team well balance offense and good defense and the line seems very attractive, however, this is a big let down spot for Clemson. Clemson was flying mile high after last week's win and they were still celebrating during the week and now this game is scheduled early on short rest. Clemson will look ahead and might get caught off guard in this rivarlary game on the road. 17.5 points is a too much. Boston College Offense is anemic and because of that majority of the public is backing Clemson but everyone forgets that Boston College defense is well above average giving up less total yards than Clemson. Boston college hasn't faced an offence of Clemson's caliber yet this year but at home they should be able to keep this close. If Clemson had played Louisville this week and Boston college last week, the line would have been around -13.5 or -14 instead. The home team must be backed with full stake in this situation as they will keep the score with in 17 points.
     
  2. Oct 7, 2016
  3. goatwack

    goatwack enthused hangman CAG

    Occupation:
    Turns Tricks
    Location:
    Londonia
    Slots may be non-skill based but I sure as hell wouldn't classify Sports Betting as a science. In fact it's downright ridiculous as either the odds are terrible or results erratic at best, even taking in all the team factors.

    And as for poker, that's even more drawn out than slots play, with maybe a handful confessing to be pros, whatever that means.

    All forms of gambling are heavily out of the player's control, no matter how much they kid themselves :cool:
     
  4. Oct 7, 2016
  5. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    You are wrong. In casino games the odds are fixed and you cannot manipulate in any way. IN sports betting there are too many variables. Ofcourse bookamker has the juice (vig) factored in but if do research and play selectively you can find value bets where you can make the odds in your favor. The odds of sporting events are created by linemakers t and its dynamic and moves as the volume of money come in....the odds are not fixed. Books do a good job with lines but if you look deeper and and work with analytics you can make money. There are also many games where bookmakers have line over estimated or underestimated, often on purpose and this is based on public perception of the event. This is why there are people who make living from betting on sports but there are no person on history of humanity who is making a living from the casino games...unless you are running the casino.
     
  6. Oct 7, 2016
  7. scarletmuse

    scarletmuse Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Lady of Leisure
    Location:
    Perth
    "Most slotters will try to play so many spins chasing bonus features or trying to win more if they win. Key is finding 5 to 7 slots a week out of those thousands of games that has the best value. Discipline is key. If you succeed you can make living with playing slots.
    Indeed. There are some very good threads on money management and discipline at Free Spins Thread or Last Night on DOA...Following few simple rules and having self control can go a long way not only in playing slot games but can also help you minimize losses.
    But if you look deeper and and work with analytics of RTPs, you can make money.This is why there are people who make living from spinning reels but there are no person on history of humanity who is making a living from sportsbetting...unless you are running the matchfixing ring!
    I don't have patience for sports... to sit down and watch cricket 8 hours a day, its more stressful than regular job! But online slot games on the other hand helped me a lot and I am doing well following certain tips I read on CM. The MG 9-Liners are the best. Sometimes they are very volatile and some days there might be no wins. Weekends usually have more than one spin on the slots-since there are many games to choose from. Last year October to December made $460 with 9c spins on BDBA! Hoping for the same this year."

    :lolup::lolup: (OPs from nomehunter) See what I did there? :what: Was browsing these posts and topics with a little interest... curiosity etc etc and I couldn't help thinking that even the 'For/Against' debate is really a bit of a gamble, like 50/50 either way it's all chance... Like flippin a coin, whether or not you study the variations in the curvature of the queen head imprint on the coin and analysing the weight-gravity ratios on descent... A seagull could still sh** on it mid-air :eek: Whatever side of the casino you prefer to loiter, it's all down to simply ya lose or ya win riiight??!? LOL

    Spinning it around (pun intended :rolleyes: ) and swapping out a few words here and there for a laugh and I reckon it's pretty legit now in favour of slots :thumbsup::thumbsup:
    :p:p
     
  8. Oct 7, 2016
  9. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    You make no sense. I don't think you understand the basic concept of odds and probability.
     
  10. Oct 8, 2016
  11. jasonuk

    jasonuk Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    N/A
    Location:
    UK
    I also wouldn't consider it a science, but there is an element of skill involved in both sports betting and poker. The amount of effort required is significant, your edge may not be enough to overcome rake/overround, the variance can bite you hard and if you're playing against the house they will shut you down anyway!

    A timely example would be the "rakeback pros" in poker - people who make a profit because they get 50%+ of the rake back as a reward. Many have come unstuck in the past couple of years as site operators have taken an axe to their rewards programs - the couple of percentage points edge they have lost turns them from winning to losing.

    Sports Analytics certainly exists - and some groups (as seen in US Daily Fantasy) are successful enough to make bank. At the same time, there is an even bigger pool of "mugs" who think they are either beating - or capable of beating - the market, and sooner or later they will get the bad news :rolleyes:
     
  12. Oct 8, 2016
  13. Jasminebed

    Jasminebed Closer to 100 than Birth

    Occupation:
    Not in workforce
    Location:
    Ontario
    I'm not a sports bettor, although I did win my one and only sportsbet, for a nice amount on the first three NHL games one year where I had to bet on sports as part of a casino promotion. It paid nearly twice what the same bet on Proline (canadian sports lottery), so if you are going to bet sports, online is the way to go IMO.

    I don't know how many thousands you make per year so far, or how much you bet either. As you know, your action can quickly be limited if they perceive you as either too lucky or too knowledgeable.

    Have you ever considered being an affiliate? Pinnacle has been good to you, and they have a good reputation to boot. Maybe approach them, have some "Nomepunter's" weekly best picks blog, and a link to the book?

    Even with some winning picks (and like everyone, including the bookies, you get it wrong), not every player will stick to only your picks, or not go on to play blackjack or slots, and you might earn a fair amount as time goes on.

    I would recommend strongly GWPA if you are interested in becoming an affiliate. Also, fantasy sports betting is becoming a huge field, there were several booths at the Amersterdam I-Gaming super show this year.

    I don't know your field of work either, but sportbooks pay big bucks for those who calculate odds.

    I think Scarletmuse may have been pulling your leg a little bit with her post. Not that I doubt her luck, I've had more than my fair share this year. And my losses have never been really heavy any year, bankroll management and carefully choosing bonuses does help a lot with that.

    Players also run the risk if they follow some guru's advice of being considered part of a Syndicate or betting group, even if they are just following tips from someone.

    If say 60 of us CM members took your picks, we all came out ahead only betting your picks, especially for first time bettors.... well, we've seen such tales before. They do not always end well.

    Do let us know your outcome this week, and feel more than welcome to continue doing so. There's a blog section here at CM, that might be a great place to do it. I don't know if you can access it yet, I know certain features require certain levels of membership.

    I do know having a bet on the outcome always makes watching a game a little more exciting. I'm hitting Woodbine Slots and Trots in Toronto on Monday, I'll bet some races. I don't follow much, it's just worth $5 to have horses to cheer for.
     
  14. Oct 8, 2016
  15. scarletmuse

    scarletmuse Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Lady of Leisure
    Location:
    Perth
    I don't think you understand exactly what I was trying to demonstrate in that post..

    Yes, I was being a little bit tongue-in-cheek--no malice intended though...;);)

    All I did was take your own words and switch out sports betting for slotting terminology as the same points can really be put forward either way mate... to say there's no science in "just for fun" slot games is a bit dismissive--especially when you look at the posts and blogs dedicated to RTPs, probability and so on:eek2:

    and my argument is that it's not fair to say one is better than the other... Otherwise it wouldn't be "gambling" would it?
     
  16. Oct 8, 2016
  17. jshort

    jshort Experienced Member MM PABaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    Bus Driver
    Location:
    Canada
    When I think of sports betting in order to try and get a profit, I think of arbitrage betting. You need special software to efficiently find arb opportunities! I actually sell this stuff.

    Generally though, the house edge with sports wagering is 10-15% if your not using any strategy. This is incredibly bias and hard to overcome even with expert analysis!
     
  18. Oct 8, 2016
  19. lotusch

    lotusch Noob Webby webby PABaccred mm2

    Occupation:
    Fraud & Underwriting Team VRP / YapStone
    Location:
    Dún Dealgan
    Well I think for most people here goes that they enjoy playing slots..
    Some you win,some you lose..

    No matter how you see it, also sports betting is gambling and has the element of chance.
    No matter how much info you have about a certain match / team / player etc etc etc.
    Yes maybe it can work slightly in your favour but look around in sports these days and see how many odd / surprising results come out.
    No way you can counteract that, even with all your knowledge.

    I do some sports betting but only on a small scale as most of the times they are losing bets. :D
    I play mostly on football and darts as other sports do not really interest me.
    Also I wouldn't be able to enjoy sports betting as much as I would enjoy playing slots.
    I mean, I have been to horse racing and dog racing tracks for example and I would not be someone who could bet on this kind of events every day, would bore the crap out of me.

    Slots however always keep me entertained. :):)
     
  20. Oct 8, 2016
  21. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    1st posted pick was a loser.

    Record: 0-1 (-10 units)

    Remember this guys if this is your first sport bet....when it comes to betting the worst thing that can happen is winning your first bet, especially if you are a casual bettor and not someone who is doing it as a way of earning. When you win the first bet on anything you get hooked and you will lose everything you won plus lot before before you even blink.

    Anyways, today there are over 100 games on slate to bet but two games that I am betting big are...



    Oregon +10 (1.91) against Washington 10/10 units
    These are two teams going in the opposite direction. Washington is flying high undefeated but they are completely a different team on the road without their crazy crowd. Washington Huskies stadium holds on of the best home stadium advantage in all of NCAAF. Washington this year is also a very good team but their defense have not been as good without their crowd behind them. Washington beating Stanford in a blow out has inflated this line but if you look deeper Stanford is a team that had too many injuries to their defensive front. Stanford is a team in trouble. Even though Washington is the better team the line is overvalued here when they are favored by 10 points in Oregon. Oregon is on a a down turn but they played tough teams and still hung around and kept it close. Here we will see Oregon full motivated trying to turn their season around. There is probably soem value in moneyline to take oregon straight up but when you are making a big bet its safeto play with the 10 point advantage. Expect oregon to keep this close and with in single digits.

    Washington State +7 (1.91)against Stanford 10/10 units
    Stanford is known as a team that plays with good defense but they are missing some key pieces. Washingotn shread them apart last week and they will face Washington State university that has better offense than Washington Univeristy. Yes, dont be confused, they are two different teams. Stanford however has a home advantage here and they should be able to put up point against washington state defense but they stanford will try to control the clock by slowing down the game to keep the ball as much as possible to minimize washington's possessions. If washington state can make few stops, they should be able to win straight up at the attractive odds but for the big bet we will go with the 7 point cushion on the spread.
     
  22. Oct 9, 2016
  23. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    THere are books that offer much better vig. Pinnacle charges 5% and even less in some events.
     
  24. Oct 9, 2016
  25. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    Record so far: 1-2 (-10.9 units)

    Today in NFL Dallas +2.5 (1.98) Odds from pinnacle. 10/10 units
     
  26. Oct 9, 2016
  27. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account


    To make money as an affiliate the referrals have to lose money. Plus the earning i make from sports betting is more than enough and I have invested most of my winnings from past years on rental condos that brings me a steady flow of income if my betting thing fails. These picks are not mine. I follow someone else's advice. I bet $5000 a game and made well over 400K last year from winnings, so no need for affiliates. I actually came to this forum to find information about land based casinos in Macau because I am travelling there but liked this forum and decided to hang out. With no full time job, i have a lot of time in my hand even through all the travelings.
     
  28. Oct 11, 2016
  29. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    There was no bets yesterday.

    Record so far: 2-2 -0.92 Units

    WNBA: Los Angeles +6.5 (1.91) against Minnesota 10/10 units
    MLB: San Francisco to win (2.13) against Chicago Cubs [List Pitchers Lackey and Moore] 10/10 units
     
  30. Oct 14, 2016
  31. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    Record so far: 2-4 -20.92 units

    Poor start but that is why we have money management. Looking forward to the weekend because that is when my guy attacks.

    Mississippi St +7 (1.95 against BYU 10/10 units
    Louisville -34.5 (1.95) against Duke 10/10 units

    Both bets are in the sport of NCAAF (college football)
     
  32. Oct 15, 2016
  33. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    Poor start so far but, things like that happen that is why we follow the money management. Trust me the capper that I follow is very good. He is usually aggressive on some weekends and I am hoping to cash.

    The plays today are...

    IN MLB: Tor/Cleveland Over 8.5 (1.91) [Tomlin and Happ] 10/10 units
    IN NCAAF: UCLA +7 (1.91) against Washington St 10/10 units
    IN NCAAF: Western Kentucky -1 (1.91) against Middle Tenn St 10/10 units

    Also parlay with the above 3 at odds 7.00 10/10 units

    Note: The capper I follow once or twice a month will have 3 games in on day, usually on a weekend when there are 100's of games. Whenever he has 3 games, he automatically parlays them since his sweep rate is around 50%. 50% at 7.00 is must play blindly. Remember, this does not mean all in....you still have to play with in money management.

    Good luck
     
  34. Oct 16, 2016
  35. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    In a hurry and game starts in 30 mins...one of the game...woke up late today.

    Today in NFL:

    Seattle -7 (1.91) against atlanta
    Miami +7.5 (1.91) against Pittsburgh
     
  36. Oct 21, 2016
  37. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    Took few days off to shake the rust. First play since Sunday:

    CFL: Toronto +16.5 (1.94) against Calgary 10/10 units

    CFL stands for Canadian Football League....and it is not football as in soccer, it is the american football.
     
  38. Oct 22, 2016
  39. nomepunter

    nomepunter Dormant account

    Today in ncaaf:

    UCF -4 (1.91) against Connecticut 10/10 units
    TCU +6.5 (1.91) against West Virginia 10/10 units
    Colorado St +2.5 (1.91) against UNLV 10/10 units
    Parlay above 3: (7.00) 10/10 units
     

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