MG videpoker - how many hands without a royal is suspicious?

TrickyNicky

Dormant account
I don't like the kind of post with accusitions of cheating casinos etc, so am here to ask for facts. I have been playing video poker at microgaming for several years, I have hit several royals with them, until midway through last year and haven't done since. The odd thing is, that in the last 18 months or so, I have played more hands of vp than any period of my life before!
I have been playing at a number of casinos, mainly ladbrokes, colosseum but with the 'odd' 10,000 hands here and there at other casinos. I have mainly been playing deuces wild 4 play power poker - and guestimate that I am at over 250,000 since my last royal flush. I am sure logs are available from micro, but the thought of spending hours tallying up hands just isn't feasable at the moment, so I wanted rough figures on what number I should start to worry that the game isn't quite right (or has that passed)? I know there is a massive variance, but hitting the royal is the only time I really cashout - the rest of the time it just drains (I suppose other than hitting 4 deuces..).
Any help appreciated..
TN
 

Slotmachine

Dormant account
Royals

If you played 250,000 hands, I'd say you had about a 20% chance of not hitting a royal. I could be wrong as I'm not good at probability though, so I'd love to see the math presented here. Anyone?
Cheers
VH
 

sharpgambler

Webmaster
If you're playing standard jacks or better game and you have played 250,000 hands of it:

The probability of getting a royal on any play is 0.00002476

The probability of not getting any royal on 250,000 plays is 0.00002476^250,000=0.00205.

The probability of not getting a royal is about 0.20%

This means that the probability of getting 1 or more royals is 0.998 or 99.80%
 

paul1

Dormant account
I really think you can trust Microgaming's video poker. I know it's hard to go 250,000 hands without hitting a royal, but sh-t happens. I've run hands on a simulator and seen it happen a few times. I'll tell you what, if you go 250,000 hands without a royal, you're going to be stuck bigtime. :)

That's ok. Keep your chin up and never say die. On your next 250,000 you're going to hit 10 royals. Think possitive. lol

Seriously, I trust Microgaming's video poker. :thumbsup:

Oh my God. I just re-read your post. You are playing 4-handed? Oh my goodness. You need to find a priest and have an exorcism. :eek2:
 

Ivy29

Dormant account
MG VP

I think it's fair, too. It's just bad luck. I'm there with you, haven't had one for a very long time and it's very disheartening. However, once I got 7 in 4 days. There might be an "average" of how often you should get them, but in real life you can't count on that. I play in live casinos, too, same results as my online. Just stick with the reputable software casinos and one will happen eventually (I hope).

One guy I know went 27 years to get his first Royal, then he got another one a few months later.
 

scrollock

Senior Member
personally i dont think the ay the royals comes out is random, ive only had one royal so far this year and that was at riverbelle (sadly not for max coins)

however what i did notice was that before it hit, the amouts of hands i had that were 3 or 4 cards to the royal were ridiculous, it seem to be like once every 3 or 4 hands, i just knew i was going to hit (i should of increased the coins), not long after i eventually hit and all the hands that were so close to the royal completly dried up.

then exactly the same thing happened at riverbelle yesterday, i was getting so many close calls it was unbeleivable, so i kept playing because i knew was going to hit, then i did, however my elation was short lived when i realised i didnt have a royal, but the str8 flush from 9 to the king. anyway after that all the close hands dried up again.

its probably just me, but when i do hit the royals i am usually expecting it from the way the cards are playing.
 

vinylweatherman

You type well loads
CAG
MM
Oddly Enough

I get the same feeling when playing MG too! Sometimes I am playing the VP and it seems that the deck is deliberately against me, I still get half decent deals, but the draw always seems to select incompatable cards again and again, often over several thousand hands. Other times I seem to keep hitting the compatable cards even from a pretty average deal.
I notice that when playing badly I will get 4 to a flush or straight, but will simply not make one on the draw for 30 hands or so (should be one in just over 4). Other times I seem to hit one or two each time I get dealt the 4 cards. I also see spells where I don't get dealt a 3 of a kind for a couple of thousand hands, and only hit 4 of a kind rarely off a pair, other times I keep getting 3 of a kind but never the 4 of a kind.
I seriously get the impression that it is not simply a case of a particular random number (1 through 52) resulting in a particular card being dealt, but that some sort of weighting is randomly selected that predisposes the draw to produce either compatable or incompatable cards to the deal. This does not stop a big win though, I have had an appalling spell on the VP, however a single Royal has levelled the game.
I have had the same feeling on other games too, my gut instinct says, this is in "Kill Mode", logic says not so - it's random - strangely, my gut instinct is nearly always more accurate than logic!
It is a pity that a big casino group cannot explain the exact process by which the random numbers are interpreted into the turn of a card and the spin of the dice or wheel. I am certain it would be possible to explain the mathematical processes without leaving the software open to fraud. (The Wizard of Odds could translate for us!) It would only be possible to use such knowledge to advantage if the process was not entirely random! (such as knowing signs that indicate whether a particular game is paying or not).
 

Slotmachine

Dormant account
MG video poker

hey, I know there are some operators out there in the online casino world that are shady but I really think you're out of line doubting MG's software. I mean, hell, sometimes it DOES feel like the software is out to decimate your bankroll, but that's just randomness and chance for you! You're more likely to be unlucky than lucky, it's the name of the game. Whenever you're unlucky it's easy to get the magical feeling that someone's turning some switches somewhere and taking your money unfairly. I know, I've been there.

There is substantial evidence that Microgaming's software is fair and random, and there is no evidence to the contrary. In fact, it's probably more random than a live casino dealer - who knows what sleight of hand they are capable of!

Cheers,
VH
 

eek

Dormant account
A chap at WOL got over 600k hands without a Royal at Global Player.

These things happen.

He started recording everything and posting regular updates of his VP play history on Wol and things got back to normal.
 

amatrine

Crazy Cat Lady
webmeister
Re

Wow how do you guys hit all those royals?? I only ever hit one in reno.
Put 20 bucks in a machine after breakfast and hit it.

I play vp on here all the time. I am good at getting the aces.
In fact in the land based one I goto, I hit the aces almost every time I go,
but I cant get royals for the life of me.lol ( double bonus poker)

Mabey because I am always playing for the 4 of a kind, and I do hit that often, but when the cards come up for royal Ill play for that and the most I get are the 4 cards, not 5,lol Im due! :)

Ama
 
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