Math Question

BigBill

Dormant account
Joined
Jan 26, 2005
Location
Melbourne Beach, Florida
I have a math question for those members that are so inclined.
I played at Maharajah Club today a Boss Media based casino
And I played 307 hands and the dealer had a Ace showing 52 times
and had 30 blackjacks and I had 11 blackjacks.
Question- is that normal or is there not enough hands played to compute?
and should I have taken insurance even though I normally never do?
Any input would be greatly appreciated.
 
Last edited:

The Watchdog

Dormant account
Joined
May 5, 2006
Location
Costa Rica
It sounds real bad,

However 300 hands are not much...

Anyways, that happens to me and I will smash the monitor.. (AT LEAST)...

JEJEE :thumbsup:
 

lucky21

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 12, 2006
Location
australia
me too

hi
I often find that BJ at online casino's does not behave like land based casinos, and some of the runs leave you scratching your head another reason to toughly regulate casino's and ensure they use True RNG's
Lucky
 

apwd

Dormant account
Joined
Feb 16, 2006
Location
East Coast
BigBill said:
I have a math question for those members that are so inclined.
I played at Maharajah Club today a Boss Media based casino
And I played 307 hands and the dealer had a Ace showing 52 times
and had 30 blackjacks and I had 11 blackjacks.
Question- is that normal or is there not enough hands played to compute?
and should I have taken insurance even though I normally never do?
Any input would be greatly appreciated.

Your sample size is way too small to signify any foulplay.

Never take insurance as it is a bet that carries a large house edge. Simple deduction dictates that when the dealer has an ace up, there is roughly a 4/13 chance that a 10-value card will accompany the ace. Since insurance pays out only 2/1, that yields a payout of 8/13 or 62%. Considering the fact that correct play at blackjack yields closer to 99.5% payouts, I would suggest that insurance is one of the worst bets you can make in a casino.
 

franklin

Dormant account
Joined
May 18, 2006
Location
New York
BigBill said:
I have a math question for those members that are so inclined.
I played at Maharajah Club today a Boss Media based casino
And I played 307 hands and the dealer had a Ace showing 52 times
The probability of the dealer receiving 52 face-up aces out 307 deals is only 0.0000072969201%. That's about 7.3 millionths of a percent.

So yes. Those results are quite irregular.

If you could post the actual hand results from Boss Media I'd be happy to review them.
 

Oebro

Dormant account
Joined
May 6, 2005
Location
Nowhere
BigBill said:
Question- is that normal or is there not enough hands played to compute?
and should I have taken insurance even though I normally never do?
Any input would be greatly appreciated.

Not only is it not enough hands played to compute, but more importantly your sample is not picked at random. Any frequent blackjack player is able to pick a sequence of 307 hands out of their entire history that shows the same result or worse, but of course this is no evidence for fraudulent software.

You (probably) just had a run of bad luck, and of course you're connecting this to the fact that you just started at a new casino. This, however, is psychology, not math.

...and as apwd said you should not take insurance.
 

BigBill

Dormant account
Joined
Jan 26, 2005
Location
Melbourne Beach, Florida
Thanks to all that replied

No the monitor survived though I do beat on it, my desk and my head with
a foam bat kept just for anger managemnt.

Franklin the hand history is not available from the Casino- I asked
and the history available online only gives each sessions total number
of hands played. I thought the results to be freakish also thus this post.
But I was still able to post win in spite of all the blackjacks

Thanks all for the feedback
 

franklin

Dormant account
Joined
May 18, 2006
Location
New York
BigBill said:
No the monitor survived though I do beat on it, my desk and my head with
a foam bat kept just for anger managemnt.

Franklin the hand history is not available from the Casino- I asked
and the history available online only gives each sessions total number
of hands played. I thought the results to be freakish also thus this post.
But I was still able to post win in spite of all the blackjacks

Thanks all for the feedback
Contact Boss Media via the casino portal and they will produce full hand histories. If you can provide me this data I can look into it for you.
 

franklin

Dormant account
Joined
May 18, 2006
Location
New York
apwd said:
Your sample size is way too small to signify any foulplay.

Never take insurance as it is a bet that carries a large house edge. Simple deduction dictates that when the dealer has an ace up, there is roughly a 4/13 chance that a 10-value card will accompany the ace. Since insurance pays out only 2/1, that yields a payout of 8/13 or 62%. Considering the fact that correct play at blackjack yields closer to 99.5% payouts, I would suggest that insurance is one of the worst bets you can make in a casino.
Your math is incorrect.

In single deck BJ, assuming no tens in the player hand (46.67% probability), insurance pays out 2/1 with probability 16/49. Hence the house edge on the bet under those circumstances is 2*16/49 - (1-16/49) = 2.04%. This implies a payout of 97.96%.

Assuming one ten in the player hand (43.92% probability) , the payout is 91.84%. With two tens (9.41% probability) it's 85.71%.

The payout on single-deck insurance against a random player hand is 94.12%.
It's certainly a horrible bet when compared to basic strategy but it's hardly the worst bet at a casino.
 
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