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Math Question

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by BigBill, Jun 21, 2006.

    Jun 21, 2006
  1. BigBill

    BigBill Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Melbourne Beach, Florida
    I have a math question for those members that are so inclined.
    I played at Maharajah Club today a Boss Media based casino
    And I played 307 hands and the dealer had a Ace showing 52 times
    and had 30 blackjacks and I had 11 blackjacks.
    Question- is that normal or is there not enough hands played to compute?
    and should I have taken insurance even though I normally never do?
    Any input would be greatly appreciated.
     
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2006
  2. Jun 21, 2006
  3. thechap

    thechap Banned User - multiple forum accounts - violation

    Occupation:
    not telling
    Location:
    sunny croxdale
    without even doing the maths freakish
     
  4. Jun 21, 2006
  5. The Watchdog

    The Watchdog Dormant account

    Occupation:
    sports, poker, casinos
    Location:
    Costa Rica
    It sounds real bad,

    However 300 hands are not much...

    Anyways, that happens to me and I will smash the monitor.. (AT LEAST)...

    JEJEE :thumbsup:
     
  6. Jun 21, 2006
  7. lucky21

    lucky21 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    plant mechanic
    Location:
    australia
    me too

    hi
    I often find that BJ at online casino's does not behave like land based casinos, and some of the runs leave you scratching your head another reason to toughly regulate casino's and ensure they use True RNG's
    Lucky
     
  8. Jun 21, 2006
  9. apwd

    apwd Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Gambler
    Location:
    East Coast
    Your sample size is way too small to signify any foulplay.

    Never take insurance as it is a bet that carries a large house edge. Simple deduction dictates that when the dealer has an ace up, there is roughly a 4/13 chance that a 10-value card will accompany the ace. Since insurance pays out only 2/1, that yields a payout of 8/13 or 62%. Considering the fact that correct play at blackjack yields closer to 99.5% payouts, I would suggest that insurance is one of the worst bets you can make in a casino.
     
  10. Jun 21, 2006
  11. franklin

    franklin Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Finance
    Location:
    New York
    The probability of the dealer receiving 52 face-up aces out 307 deals is only 0.0000072969201%. That's about 7.3 millionths of a percent.

    So yes. Those results are quite irregular.

    If you could post the actual hand results from Boss Media I'd be happy to review them.
     
    1 person likes this.
  12. Jun 21, 2006
  13. Oebro

    Oebro Dormant account

    Occupation:
    well...it sucks!
    Location:
    Nowhere
    Not only is it not enough hands played to compute, but more importantly your sample is not picked at random. Any frequent blackjack player is able to pick a sequence of 307 hands out of their entire history that shows the same result or worse, but of course this is no evidence for fraudulent software.

    You (probably) just had a run of bad luck, and of course you're connecting this to the fact that you just started at a new casino. This, however, is psychology, not math.

    ...and as apwd said you should not take insurance.
     
  14. Jun 21, 2006
  15. BigBill

    BigBill Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Melbourne Beach, Florida
    Thanks to all that replied

    No the monitor survived though I do beat on it, my desk and my head with
    a foam bat kept just for anger managemnt.

    Franklin the hand history is not available from the Casino- I asked
    and the history available online only gives each sessions total number
    of hands played. I thought the results to be freakish also thus this post.
    But I was still able to post win in spite of all the blackjacks

    Thanks all for the feedback
     
  16. Jun 21, 2006
  17. franklin

    franklin Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Finance
    Location:
    New York
    Contact Boss Media via the casino portal and they will produce full hand histories. If you can provide me this data I can look into it for you.
     
  18. Jun 21, 2006
  19. BigBill

    BigBill Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Melbourne Beach, Florida
    Franklin

    Could you be more specific on how to reach Boss Media?

    TIA
     
  20. Jun 21, 2006
  21. apwd

    apwd Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Gambler
    Location:
    East Coast
    Start the process by sending your request in writing to:

    This email is not visible to you.
     
    1 person likes this.
  22. Jun 26, 2006
  23. franklin

    franklin Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Finance
    Location:
    New York
    Your math is incorrect.

    In single deck BJ, assuming no tens in the player hand (46.67% probability), insurance pays out 2/1 with probability 16/49. Hence the house edge on the bet under those circumstances is 2*16/49 - (1-16/49) = 2.04%. This implies a payout of 97.96%.

    Assuming one ten in the player hand (43.92% probability) , the payout is 91.84%. With two tens (9.41% probability) it's 85.71%.

    The payout on single-deck insurance against a random player hand is 94.12%.
    It's certainly a horrible bet when compared to basic strategy but it's hardly the worst bet at a casino.
     

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