Question Many Question about RTP/Variance

BlaCGaming

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Hey Community!

Found this website a while ago and love it already!

From what I have seen there are many slot-savvy people here so maybe I can get some answers :)

Here we go:

1. How exactly is RTP being used? Is it casino based or IP based? For example I make 500 dead spins on dead or alive, will those be taken into account when I start the same game in another casino? Or has this no relevance at all?

2. When talking about RTP, how much does the actual individual player play a role?

For example, lets say I made 100 spins on Dead or alive (0,09€ per spin, so a total of 9€) and get a feature that pays me 2000€.
Now my RTP would be astronomical, but does that mean the slot "remembers" I just won that much thus not giving me wins such as this until I have lost said amount again?
Or is it actually completely random and I could hit the same one in the next spin? And if so, does it mean those 2 big wins will just be deducted from other players playing?

3. I have also read about RTP and the players involved. Lets take some old slot that rarely anyone plays, Geisha Wonders might be a good example.

If I play this along with only 3 other players, will all of what each player can win be the grandtotal (minus the % for the house edge) of what those 3 players deposited into it?

If so, what happens if everyone stops playing? Can I win at all at this slot, or will I lose no matter how many spins I make because I can´t go over the RTP of 96%?


4. What happens on new game releases? There is nothing paid in yet basically, so how can the slot pay anything out? Or does the slot "assume" it will make it back from the other players playing?
There where I have trouble understanding, does the slot know when its in "minus" and therefore deciding to make players lose? If thats the case can we really call it random?

5. I have heard some streamers talk about bonus features, and they seem to know a lot about them, for example one streamer said that you get 1 bonus feature every 8 spins on average on "Steam Tower". Is this just a statistical prediction based on many rounds played there like the slot tables that get posted here? Further he was able to tell the possible outcomes for a 5 scatter hit on Cazino Zeppelin, for example that its impossible to start with a wildline and 5 scatters and he was able to tell the positions the wilds can land along with scatters. Where can you get that kind of information?


Thats all I could think of right, thanks for everyone who can shed some insight!

:)
 

Casinomeister

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Hi BlaCGaming,

Thanks for joining us. :D

I'll give you the short version - it's getting late and I'm sure there are many other peeps here who will chime in. :D

Proper RTP - one that is not skewered, rigged, or manipulated in any way will be carried out by a server's random number generator. In most cases these servers are within the licensing jurisdiction's control and has nothing to do with the casino. The casino is acting somewhat like a portal in a way. They are hosting the game, but have no control of the game's outcome.

That game's theoretical RTP - one that has been programmed by the software provider and audited by the licensing jurisdiction - is not affected by IPs, or your playing behavior. The spins don't remember the past spin, and they don't predict the next. Just as if you were to roll a pair of dice - the dice do not remember the past rolls, nor do they predict the next.

The game's actual RTP won't meet the theoretical RTP until millions of hands have been played (or spins). The more spins - the closer to the theoretical RTP. That's just the game's behavior. You may get a massive win on the 2nd spin and your RTP is 500%. Or you could just spin away $100 at $2 a pop with an RTP of 25% and think the game is rigged. If it's properly designed, managed, and regulated, it's not rigged. The longer it is played - the closer to the RTP you will get.

That was my short answer. :p
 

dunover

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Hi BlaCGaming,

Thanks for joining us. :D

I'll give you the short version - it's getting late and I'm sure there are many other peeps here who will chime in. :D

Proper RTP - one that is not skewered, rigged, or manipulated in any way will be carried out by a server's random number generator. In most cases these servers are within the licensing jurisdiction's control and has nothing to do with the casino. The casino is acting somewhat like a portal in a way. They are hosting the game, but have no control of the game's outcome.

That game's theoretical RTP - one that has been programmed by the software provider and audited by the licensing jurisdiction - is not affected by IPs, or your playing behavior. The spins don't remember the past spin, and they don't predict the next. Just as if you were to roll a pair of dice - the dice do not remember the past rolls, nor do they predict the next.

The game's actual RTP won't meet the theoretical RTP until millions of hands have been played (or spins). The more spins - the closer to the theoretical RTP. That's just the game's behavior. You may get a massive win on the 2nd spin and your RTP is 500%. Or you could just spin away $100 at $2 a pop with an RTP of 25% and think the game is rigged. If it's properly designed, managed, and regulated, it's not rigged. The longer it is played - the closer to the RTP you will get.
That was my short answer. :p

Apart from Raging Rhino that is.
 

BlaCGaming

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Hi BlaCGaming,

Thanks for joining us. :D

I'll give you the short version - it's getting late and I'm sure there are many other peeps here who will chime in. :D

Proper RTP - one that is not skewered, rigged, or manipulated in any way will be carried out by a server's random number generator. In most cases these servers are within the licensing jurisdiction's control and has nothing to do with the casino. The casino is acting somewhat like a portal in a way. They are hosting the game, but have no control of the game's outcome.

That game's theoretical RTP - one that has been programmed by the software provider and audited by the licensing jurisdiction - is not affected by IPs, or your playing behavior. The spins don't remember the past spin, and they don't predict the next. Just as if you were to roll a pair of dice - the dice do not remember the past rolls, nor do they predict the next.

The game's actual RTP won't meet the theoretical RTP until millions of hands have been played (or spins). The more spins - the closer to the theoretical RTP. That's just the game's behavior. You may get a massive win on the 2nd spin and your RTP is 500%. Or you could just spin away $100 at $2 a pop with an RTP of 25% and think the game is rigged. If it's properly designed, managed, and regulated, it's not rigged. The longer it is played - the closer to the RTP you will get.

That was my short answer. :p

Thanks that already helps :)

How can the game return me 97% though if it doesn´t know how much bets I place? Maybe I am still misunderstanding, does the game not care about bets and just return what it eats at 97%?
 

interlog

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Thanks that already helps :)

How can the game return me 97% though if it doesn´t know how much bets I place? Maybe I am still misunderstanding, does the game not care about bets and just return what it eats at 97%?

It returns 97% to all of the players collective not to each individual player. That mears some will get more and some will get less.
 

dunover

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Thanks that already helps :)

How can the game return me 97% though if it doesn´t know how much bets I place? Maybe I am still misunderstanding, does the game not care about bets and just return what it eats at 97%?

That is a contentious subject. Some games are clearly reactive to what you stake, the amount you stake IS relevant and must be calculated somewhere. Theoretically your chance of next spin returning say 5x stake should be the same at 80p as it is if you changed your stake to 80 quid. But it cannot work like that - for example I bet £100 on a game and hit 2000x stake and win 200k. My mate does the same. Then you and 20 mates are playing at £1 spins and literally wouldn't hit a thing as the overall RTP curve for all players recovered down to nearer average. But you would find the game played pretty much normally for you regardless of what me and my pal won, as all players have an account code unique to them at the casino/slot RNG. We have seen this proven by different people pulling 1m results from the RNG and all ending up a gnat's cock away from each other in overall RTP. If stake was not relevant in some way, then the disparity between them each pulling 1M results would be far more pronounced.
 

SlotGrinder

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Stake shouldn't make a difference . Why would it ? Unless they are rigged in some way

RTP isn't some magical mysterious number closely monitored and controlled by the slot . It's just the edge that the game design has over the player .

Throw a 6 sided die and I give you 5x your stake back if the dice rolls a 6 . In this game the rtp is 5/6 or 83% . There's no mystery about it - the game design is such that on average you are receiving back less than you stake because of course there are 6 sides to a die but instead of paying you 6x when you hit a certain number I am instead only paying you 5x . If you bet £1 or £1 million it's still the same rtp and each dice roll is a new roll independent of any other roll regardless of how much you stake on it. You might get a lot of 6's in a short number of rolls and be up but after 1000s of rolls it will be virtually impossible for you to be in profit . If you bet £1 100 times and then bet £1000 once then of course that £1000 roll will massively skew the results in terms of money won or lost . But say you won £5000 on that one spin . Now the die doesn't think "oh now he is £4000 up so I'd better make him lose now to get him down to the appropriate 83% rtp" . It just carries on being a die :p

Think of a slot as a 10000 sided die with different sized payouts for hitting certain numbers where the total of these payouts works out to 96% of your stake back (rtp) . It doesn't mean it will give you 96% back after X number of spins it just means that is the mathematical expectation of what you will get back . When your number of spins gets higher and higher it becomes less and less likely that your results will differ significantly from the expected return (rtp).
 

Casinomeister

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Stake shouldn't make a difference . Why would it ? Unless they are rigged in some way

RTP isn't some magical mysterious number closely monitored and controlled by the slot . It's just the edge that the game design has over the player .

Throw a 6 sided die and I give you 5x your stake back if the dice rolls a 6 . In this game the rtp is 5/6 or 83% . There's no mystery about it - the game design is such that on average you are receiving back less than you stake because of course there are 6 sides to a die but instead of paying you 6x when you hit a certain number I am instead only paying you 5x . If you bet £1 or £1 million it's still the same rtp and each dice roll is a new roll independent of any other roll regardless of how much you stake on it. You might get a lot of 6's in a short number of rolls and be up but after 1000s of rolls it will be virtually impossible for you to be in profit . If you bet £1 100 times and then bet £1000 once then of course that £1000 roll will massively skew the results in terms of money won or lost . But say you won £5000 on that one spin . Now the die doesn't think "oh now he is £4000 up so I'd better make him lose now to get him down to the appropriate 83% rtp" . It just carries on being a die :p

Think of a slot as a 10000 sided die with different sized payouts for hitting certain numbers where the total of these payouts works out to 96% of your stake back (rtp) . It doesn't mean it will give you 96% back after X number of spins it just means that is the mathematical expectation of what you will get back . When your number of spins gets higher and higher it becomes less and less likely that your results will differ significantly from the expected return (rtp).

Excellent explanation. :thumbsup:
 

Lillie

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Stake shouldn't make a difference . Why would it ? Unless they are rigged in some way

It shouldn't make a difference but I'm betting it does. Let's say a casino takes £10,000,000 in stakes on a certain slot and the auditors find it's paid out £9,700,000 to the players and is happy with the slot and announces an RTP of 97% on that slot. That should satisfy everyone, yes? Well, what I would like to see is the RTP for every single STAKE on the slot. As you know, my weakness is Raging Rhino which has individual stakes ranging from 40p up to £60 and I would be prepared to bet every penny I will ever earn that the RTP for the slot would be fair but it would vary a lot over the different stakes. RTP would be high over the low stakes but low over the high stakes. I don't care what anyone says, the slots play differently depending on the stake you play; at least it does on Raging Rhino and I know many players will back me up on this.
 

mac72

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Stake shouldn't make a difference . Why would it ? Unless they are rigged in some way

RTP isn't some magical mysterious number closely monitored and controlled by the slot . It's just the edge that the game design has over the player .

Throw a 6 sided die and I give you 5x your stake back if the dice rolls a 6 . In this game the rtp is 5/6 or 83% . There's no mystery about it - the game design is such that on average you are receiving back less than you stake because of course there are 6 sides to a die but instead of paying you 6x when you hit a certain number I am instead only paying you 5x . If you bet £1 or £1 million it's still the same rtp and each dice roll is a new roll independent of any other roll regardless of how much you stake on it. You might get a lot of 6's in a short number of rolls and be up but after 1000s of rolls it will be virtually impossible for you to be in profit . If you bet £1 100 times and then bet £1000 once then of course that £1000 roll will massively skew the results in terms of money won or lost . But say you won £5000 on that one spin . Now the die doesn't think "oh now he is £4000 up so I'd better make him lose now to get him down to the appropriate 83% rtp" . It just carries on being a die :p

Think of a slot as a 10000 sided die with different sized payouts for hitting certain numbers where the total of these payouts works out to 96% of your stake back (rtp) . It doesn't mean it will give you 96% back after X number of spins it just means that is the mathematical expectation of what you will get back . When your number of spins gets higher and higher it becomes less and less likely that your results will differ significantly from the expected return (rtp).

This is exactly how i would of explained it as it was always my understanding BUT i am in doubt.I'm still relatively new to slots but i have to say that with DOA and Rhino i just don't find it to be the case.Those games get 90% of my play and in the 2odd years i've been playing slots i feel they play much differently at higher stakes.
I'd love to hear Harrys view on it as he's the stats guy but i'd also like someone from Netent and WMS to clarify the position as i'm quite happy to play a "random" game but i don't want anything to do with games that take in and then give back a percentage.Thats important and even more so if the take is "operator specific" because then playing at a smaller operator on high stakes would be a complete waste of time.
 

SpinUk

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My take is that Netent slots are crowd funded, much like a lottery machine. This would explain fraudulant teams targetting a slot simulataneously with a bonus and sharing the winnings. There would be no point if it was random. I do not think MG slots work in the same way.
 
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Stella

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The explanation Casinomeister has given is very useful, thanks! <snip>
 
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BlaCGaming

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What about the "abandoned slot" qeuestion?

I was hoping someone would be able to provide insight into what happens when no one plays it, or exactly 1 person plays it.

Does it mean he cannot possibly come out on top or just in the long run? If he lets say put in 100$ and won 5000$ and then left and no one ever played it again, wouldn´t the slot be deemed not profitable?

Thanks for all the answers so far! :)
 

SlotGrinder

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I was hoping someone would be able to provide insight into what happens when no one plays it, or exactly 1 person plays it.

Does it mean he cannot possibly come out on top or just in the long run? If he lets say put in 100$ and won 5000$ and then left and no one ever played it again, wouldn´t the slot be deemed not profitable?

Thanks for all the answers so far! :)

If only one person played blackjack today and got 21 on the 1st hand and left , then do you think at the end of the day the casino would throw away the deck of cards because they are unprofitable ?

If a slot machine has 96% rtp then that is equivalent to you picking a number from 1-100 and if correct you get 96x your stake back . Maybe you win at this game every day for a year by being lucky with your picks (or spins on a slot) . That doesn't change the fact that the game is inherently unprofitable for you because you have 1 in 100 chance of guessing correctly but you only receive 96x your stake instead of 100x
The game remains the same no matter how many people play it and how many spins they make
 

nikantw

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Thanks that already helps :)

How can the game return me 97% though if it doesn´t know how much bets I place? Maybe I am still misunderstanding, does the game not care about bets and just return what it eats at 97%?

I was hoping someone would be able to provide insight into what happens when no one plays it, or exactly 1 person plays it.

Does it mean he cannot possibly come out on top or just in the long run? If he lets say put in 100$ and won 5000$ and then left and no one ever played it again, wouldn´t the slot be deemed not profitable?

Thanks for all the answers so far! :)

The answer is the same. The slot doesn't care about any of that. Who is playing, how many are playing, what is the bet size, don't have anything to do with the outcome of the RNG.

All the "problems" you can imagine because of that, can certainly happen in theory, but they don't in the real word. For 2 reasons, billions of spins happen with random bet sizes and the casinos change their max bet allowed so they can afford to pay the winnings in any crazy scenario.

Billions of spins make sure the RTP will be the same with the TRTP on any slot and for any bet size. That means the casino always wins. Managing the max bet allowed means they can also pay winnings no matter what.

If you go to a casino and say "I want to be your only customer", they will answer "no problem, as long as you play all day, forever, with unlimited funds and random bet size!" :)
 

Simmo!

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Something else to remember here too. Although a game has a single, stated RTP, that RTP is likely to be divided up at design time based on the "features" in a game. If you have, say, 4 features, the designer could allocate different portions of the RTP to each feature rather than equal parts.

So let's take an extreme high variance example: if a game has a feature that is designed to occur once in every 1000 spins, yet it is allocated 50% of the RTP, it means that if you don't get the feature you will see a much reduced RTP during the base game and the slot will appear to be eating your money. You could go 3-4,000 spins without the feature in this scenario quite regularly and it could feel "wrong". But when you hit the feature, you could see as much as you won in all those 3-4,000 spins come back to you quite regularly as the RTP in this example is evenly split between the feature and the base game (50/50).

That is a very rough example and not many slots will be that extreme but it demonstrates where high variance comes in.

Incidentally, addressing another point raised above, UK regulations stipulate that a slot that pays a different RTP for higher stakes has to state that clearly: it may well be presented in a "range" like IGT used to do (RTP 94.08% - 96.98%) but in my experience, this only happens when you see clear indicators like "Extra Bet" options.
 

ThePOGG

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Some really good stuff posted in this thread but also some fundamental misunderstandings about RTPs.

The Theoretical RTP figure listed with a game is derived via simulation and has nothing to do with the results, either individually or collectively, of players. When the game is being developed the developers, and ultimately independent testing labs, should be setting up programs to play millions upon millions of spins. These testing sessions will play more than it is ever likely any player, no matter how dedicated to a specific game, will ever play to establish where the results trend towards and to ensure that this falls within a mathematically acceptable range or the result expected to occur based on the probability of each outcome.

When thinking about why such large sample sizes are required I always use Video Poker as an example. I've played a lot of Jacks or Better. During the dry spells I've seen periods of almost 160k hands without a Royal Flush (playing optimally). You should see 1 approximately every 40k hands. On the flip side I've seen days where I've hit 3 in the space of a few thousand hands. That's natural variance. To determine the RTP of the game you have to play enough that these natural swings in the rarest payouts level out to their average.

-----------------

The RTP figures displayed by the majority of operators are simply what the game is expected to trend towards in the long term across the sum of all players play. They are NOT a good indicator of the experience you will have when playing, though by choosing games with higher RTPs you will make it more likely that you will lose less in the long run.

The exception to this is where an operator shows a 'Real' RTP. This is based on actual player results in the immediate past. These figures are commonly used to advertise "hot" or "cold" games. All players should be aware that these figures are absolutely meaningless. They tell you what has happened in the past, but give no information about what will happen in the future. A hot game is no more likely to remain hot. Nor is it overdue to turn cold. A cold game is not overdue for a win. These figures are used solely for entertainment purposes.

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A few posters have been talking about different RTPs at different wagering levels. By and large this simply isn't the case. While there should be greater transparency regarding the different RTPs for different wager settings and there are differences in SOME games based on either the number of lines you choose to play or the number of coins you choose to wager on each line, the size of the coin should make zero difference to the game. Unless this is specifically stated within the game rules, it would be highly controversial if a game provider were found to be offering a different reel layout for the same game at different coin sizes. This would be pretty close to offering free play versions of the game that give an unrealistic chance of success.


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Simmo makes an excellent point about rare events. This is something that all players should take into consideration. The bigger the top payout the rarer it is (generally speaking). The rarer it is the less likely that you will be one of the few that wins it. If you don't win it and a significant portion of the game's return (RTP) is tied up in that payout, you are effectively playing at a far lower RTP than listed. This is especially important when playing any type of sizeable Progressive Jackpot. The vast majority of players will experience an RTP lower than listed and a very small number of players will experience an RTP FAR higher than expected. The average will work out to the list RTP over time but you're putting yourself in a position of being likely to be one of the group that experiences the lower RTP in the hopes of being one of the very small number that hits the big win.




In summary:

- your individual play doesn't make any difference to the RTP listed for a game
- do not expect your results to conform to listed RTP figures, though you do make it more likely you'll lose less if you choose higher RTP games
- Ignore 'real rtp' figures and "hot" or "cold" advertisements. They're meaningless.
- The bigger the top payout the more likely you are to experience an effective RTP that's lower than the listed RTP.


TP
 

dunover

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The RTP you see is actually the THEORETICAL RTP - in other words if you pulled all results possible from the reel maps, once, you would end up with say 96% of the cost of doing so at a uniform stake.

So for example you could have a slot which paid 96p EVERY spin for a £1 stake, thus zero variance and pays 96% RTP over the short, medium and long term right from first spin. (St*rb*rst lol)

Then another game, where there were say 1 million possible reel combinations, 999,999 paid ZERO and 1 paid £960,000. Again a TRTP of 96% but MAXIMUM possible variance.

Obviously these are extreme examples and would work best simply on a basic slot with no features.

OK, introduce a pooled jackpot in example 1 above. Every spin only pays 90p now, so 999,999 spins each save 6p so there is one spin which pays £60,000 max, or less if it came on any spin before 1m spins had been used. This is basically how progressives work. Expect a reduced RTP unless very fortunate!

As others have pointed out correctly, now factor in the proportion of the TRTP that is allocated to the bonus rounds in the program. ON MG we know after kktmd's 1m spin tests that this is approximately 20% of RTP. Therefore on games such as DoA over the medium-long term you will have a poor RTP until, or unless, you hit one of the exceptional multi-thousands x stake bonuses. Of course then we have timing - should you do so after say 100 spins your personal RTP for the game, at that particular casino, will be for example 5000% at that stage.

Now it's POSSIBLE that you could do the same again 10 spins later, but the law of large numbers makes it highly unlikely and therefore your RTP will almost certainly decline rapidly afterwards - this is why slots appear to play badly after big wins or a string of decent hits. Remember, the RNG say has just picked a 1/50000 outcome for you and a 1/1000 outcome say in the last 100 spins when the huge majority of outcomes are zero-5x stake for example.

IGT and Barcrest games for example DO play differently according to stakes and state so in the RTP figures, for example ranges from 94-98% on the Bastardcrests dependent on your betting patterns, whereas IGT will offer figures of i.e. 93.93-96.05% due to feature selection optimum choices, like on Cleocraptra Plus.

Having said all that I am still unsure about the games' reactions to significant stake changes, both up and down. I have observed numerous 'odd' events on WMS games like the Raping Rhino when doing this - both in my favour and not. But generally I will concur with POGG's and Simmo's views...:)

P.S. The MG Viper and other casinos which show 'current RTP' figures for all their games implying 'hot and cold' are indeed totally meaningless, and misleading IMO. They have about as much use to the player as the Rushmore cash-out button...
 

BlaCGaming

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Great post, very explanatory!

A few more things:

The RTP figures displayed by the majority of operators are simply what the game is expected to trend towards in the long term across the sum of all players play. They are NOT a good indicator of the experience you will have when playing, though by choosing games with higher RTPs you will make it more likely that you will lose less in the long run.

The exception to this is where an operator shows a 'Real' RTP. This is based on actual player results in the immediate past. These figures are commonly used to advertise "hot" or "cold" games. All players should be aware that these figures are absolutely meaningless. They tell you what has happened in the past, but give no information about what will happen in the future. A hot game is no more likely to remain hot. Nor is it overdue to turn cold. A cold game is not overdue for a win. These figures are used solely for entertainment purposes.

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TP

The hot and cold thing I suspected for a long time being completely meaningless and seems like it might actually be harmful when talking about "Random outcomes", by advertising as if it makes any difference they might raise suspicion. Pretty unnessesary.


About the rare events:

If we are talking RTP and Random outcome, what keeps a slot from turning this around:

"The vast majority of players will experience an RTP lower than listed and a very small number of players will experience an RTP FAR higher than expected."

If the slot is acting completely random, there should be the possibility of many players winning and just a few losing.

Or are we talking random in terms of "every single spin" outcome. Having no correlation with the actual way the slot is developed? Having a set of outcomes and which set you get is random? That kind of way, which keeps the slot from giving out more then its taking?

The question might be more clear when asking: Can a slot be not profitable (maybe just for a short period of time)?

What happens when a new slot is released and free spins are given out? Where does that money come from and does it count to the actual RTP? If everyone wins a total of 100k $ out of free spins and no one plays the slot, it effectively made loss, isn´t this a risk? I figure thats why a lot of casinos require deposits nowadays before granting free spins. I might be very wrong and I am sorry if I am, I figure its highly annoying if I keep refering to something that should have been clear already.

Thanks for taking the time!
 
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