• Downtime Alert


    Casinomeister will be Down from 11:00 a.m. at 11:30 a.m. November 21st due to Maintenance and Upgrade work related to our Hosting Services.
    Check our twitter channel for more news.
  • Follow Casinomeister on Twitter | YouTube | Casinomeister.us US Residents Click here! |  Svenska Svenska | 

likely or not?

trick

Dormant account
Just want to ask about the odds of this happening. It might be well within expected values, but could one of your numbercrunchers tell me?

Playing 2 hand blackjack with 2 units pr. hand. Wagering 590 units and loosing 90. Following the chart ofcourse..

I know it's a small number of games, but I'm afraid I might loose it all if I continue :eek: And if you could just tell me in plain english, I'm no good at this statistics thingie :D
 

seanjohn

Banned User - Violation of posting rules
if you bet 1 unit per hand
then you were ripped off,
plain and simple, no need statistics

mind to share which casino was that? em..let me guess? Blackjackplayer.com?
 

GrandMaster

Ueber Meister
CAG
trick said:
Just want to ask about the odds of this happening. It might be well within expected values, but could one of your numbercrunchers tell me?

Playing 2 hand blackjack with 2 units pr. hand. Wagering 590 units and loosing 90. Following the chart ofcourse..

I know it's a small number of games, but I'm afraid I might loose it all if I continue :eek: And if you could just tell me in plain english, I'm no good at this statistics thingie :D
Taking splits and doubles into account, I estimate that you played about 130 hands.

I am using 1.32 as the variance of a single hand betting 1 unit, and 0.48 as the covariance of the two hands (
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
). So the variance of a game betting 2 units on 2 hands is 4*(2*1.32+2*0.48)=14.4. The variance of 130 games is 130*14.4=1872, the standard deviation is its square root, 43.3. Your expected loss is about 3 units, you are almost exactly 2 standard deviations below it, the probability of this happening is about 2.3%. Because of the approximations, I would say that the probability of losing this much or more is between 2% and 2.5%.
 

trick

Dormant account
You are not called GrandMaster for nothing - thank you :) So it should happen like 1 time in 40-50 is that correctly understood?
 

jerseyguy11

Dormant account
GrandMaster said:
Taking splits and doubles into account, I estimate that you played about 130 hands.

I am using 1.32 as the variance of a single hand betting 1 unit, and 0.48 as the covariance of the two hands (
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
). So the variance of a game betting 2 units on 2 hands is 4*(2*1.32+2*0.48)=14.4. The variance of 130 games is 130*14.4=1872, the standard deviation is its square root, 43.3. Your expected loss is about 3 units, you are almost exactly 2 standard deviations below it, the probability of this happening is about 2.3%. Because of the approximations, I would say that the probability of losing this much or more is between 2% and 2.5%.

can i borrow your brain for a while. i need it for college :)
 

trick

Dormant account
I found the log viewer. I played 133 hands. Other info is:

Dealer Me
Blackjack 11 Blackjack 16
Twentyone 12 Twentyone 10
Twenty 22 Twenty 36
Nineteen 18 Nineteen 37
Eighteen 20 Eighteen 29
Seventeen 15 Seventeen 34
Sixteen 2 Sixteen 6
Fifteen 1 Fifteen 9
Fourteen 1 Fourteen 12
Twelve 1 Thirteen 16
Bust 30 Twelve 7
Eleven 2
Ten 1
Nine 1
Eight 2
Seven 1
Bust 52

As far as I can see, I'm getting too few of everything from 17 and up, and way too much of 16 and lower hands.

Doubles
Won 10
Lost 11
Pushed 1

I'd expect to win more doubles, as this is done from an advantage position. no idea how doubles would normally look.

There's no real complaint in this, just wanted to get input like what I got from Grandmaster.
 

lola

Banned User
once in 68 times

hi
your results are bad but still make sence.
by my calculations it should happen once per 68 times
or by numbers: your chance to get this result or worst is 1.46%.
good luck for the next time...
 

trick

Dormant account
Another hefty beat on Inter BJ. 22 hands, 17 losses, 3 wins and 2 pushes.. I hate streaks going the wrong way....
 
Top