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likely or not?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by trick, Sep 1, 2004.

    Sep 1, 2004
  1. trick

    trick Dormant account

    Just want to ask about the odds of this happening. It might be well within expected values, but could one of your numbercrunchers tell me?

    Playing 2 hand blackjack with 2 units pr. hand. Wagering 590 units and loosing 90. Following the chart ofcourse..

    I know it's a small number of games, but I'm afraid I might loose it all if I continue :eek: And if you could just tell me in plain english, I'm no good at this statistics thingie :D
  2. Sep 1, 2004
  3. seanjohn

    seanjohn Banned User - Violation of posting rules

    if you bet 1 unit per hand
    then you were ripped off,
    plain and simple, no need statistics

    mind to share which casino was that? em..let me guess? Blackjackplayer.com?
  4. Sep 1, 2004
  5. trick

    trick Dormant account

    2 units pr. hand as stated in the first post... It was InterCasino...
  6. Sep 1, 2004
  7. GrandMaster

    GrandMaster Ueber Meister CAG

    Mathematician by day, online gambler by night.
    Taking splits and doubles into account, I estimate that you played about 130 hands.

    I am using 1.32 as the variance of a single hand betting 1 unit, and 0.48 as the covariance of the two hands (You must register/login in order to see the link.). So the variance of a game betting 2 units on 2 hands is 4*(2*1.32+2*0.48)=14.4. The variance of 130 games is 130*14.4=1872, the standard deviation is its square root, 43.3. Your expected loss is about 3 units, you are almost exactly 2 standard deviations below it, the probability of this happening is about 2.3%. Because of the approximations, I would say that the probability of losing this much or more is between 2% and 2.5%.
  8. Sep 1, 2004
  9. trick

    trick Dormant account

    You are not called GrandMaster for nothing - thank you :) So it should happen like 1 time in 40-50 is that correctly understood?
  10. Sep 2, 2004
  11. jerseyguy11

    jerseyguy11 Dormant account

    new jersey

    can i borrow your brain for a while. i need it for college :)
  12. Sep 2, 2004
  13. trick

    trick Dormant account

    I found the log viewer. I played 133 hands. Other info is:

    Dealer Me
    Blackjack 11 Blackjack 16
    Twentyone 12 Twentyone 10
    Twenty 22 Twenty 36
    Nineteen 18 Nineteen 37
    Eighteen 20 Eighteen 29
    Seventeen 15 Seventeen 34
    Sixteen 2 Sixteen 6
    Fifteen 1 Fifteen 9
    Fourteen 1 Fourteen 12
    Twelve 1 Thirteen 16
    Bust 30 Twelve 7
    Eleven 2
    Ten 1
    Nine 1
    Eight 2
    Seven 1
    Bust 52

    As far as I can see, I'm getting too few of everything from 17 and up, and way too much of 16 and lower hands.

    Won 10
    Lost 11
    Pushed 1

    I'd expect to win more doubles, as this is done from an advantage position. no idea how doubles would normally look.

    There's no real complaint in this, just wanted to get input like what I got from Grandmaster.
  14. Sep 8, 2004
  15. lola

    lola Banned User

    once in 68 times

    your results are bad but still make sence.
    by my calculations it should happen once per 68 times
    or by numbers: your chance to get this result or worst is 1.46%.
    good luck for the next time...
  16. Apr 19, 2005
  17. trick

    trick Dormant account

    Another hefty beat on Inter BJ. 22 hands, 17 losses, 3 wins and 2 pushes.. I hate streaks going the wrong way....

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