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is MG BJ like playtech BJ now?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by scrollock, Aug 9, 2005.

    Aug 9, 2005
  1. scrollock

    scrollock Senior Member

    Occupation:
    google
    Location:
    boro, uk
    yes another BJ is fixed thread!!!!

    i gave up doing Bj a few months ago (casino game that is, not that i do the other!) because basically i ran into stream of badluck at a certain MG casino, problem was that it was not just the bad run on its own, but the way i got beat, i.e. a dealer miracle pull everytime especialy on big hands. i got sent a stack of offers over the weekend, apart from the the dealers consistent house advantage of 5% over 4000 hands, everytime i went to make a gamble of it i had a bad beat.

    i just found a email for a offer i hadnt seen, done the offer and yes i dont need to tell the rest.

    so is MG BJ like playtech or as someone mentioned in another thread,have i been profiled?
     
  2. Aug 10, 2005
  3. ftg

    ftg Banned User - bogus claim - violation of <a href="

    I have similar experience for recent 3 months.

    Normally I will bet from $1-$10 until I have a loss of say net -20 units in 30 hands and then I start to raise my bet from $10 upwards, But EVERYTIME the losing streaks come in like this one afterwards:

    LLLLLLL
    W
    LLLLLL
    WW
    LLLL
    W
    LLLLL
    W
    L
    W
    LLLLLLL
     
  4. Aug 10, 2005
  5. mattysgirl

    mattysgirl Banned User - violation of <a href="http://www.cas

    Occupation:
    computers
    Location:
    Houston TX
    mg blackjack

    I am with you on giving up playing blackjack as well. Not sure what the deal is but it seems that the dealer pulls these miricle hands. When a 20 is no longer good enough what is up with that??? There are a few casino groups that seeem worse than others.

    What is funny is so many people think slots will rob you, not the case playing slots seems the only way i will keep my money or win these days....lol

    However once at vegas7 casino i did let a 500 deposit ride at 100 bets and cashed in 13k courtesy of bj....that was a once in a lifetime deal...lol
     
  6. Aug 17, 2005
  7. vinylweatherman

    vinylweatherman You type well loads CAG MM

    Occupation:
    STILL At Leisure
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    MG BJ

    I am conducting an experiment consisting of 100,000 hands of Blackjack.
    I am tabulating the results (I have reached 60,000 so far, and the results are incredible!)

    I did a smaller run of 20,000 hands and got the usual "kill mode" experienced by many players, which has lead to the persistent rumours about "rigged streaks" in MG games.

    Needless to say, I am running this at a mere 1 unit stake, and have taken a bonus that requires me to run this trial to 82,000 anyway at this level. Statistically, I will merely sacrifice the bonus in the interests of science and retrieve my deposit (or most of it).

    I am not sure how big a run is required to give the results meaning, as previous postings of lucky dealer streaks have been dismissed as possible for a random game.
    I will use the formulae on wizardofodds to give meaning to my results when done. I will probably need to repeat the experiment again to check that there is consistency.
     
  8. Aug 17, 2005
  9. raol

    raol Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    Sweden
    Check out my post:
    http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/showpost.php?p=70149&postcount=9
     
  10. Aug 17, 2005
  11. mattysgirl

    mattysgirl Banned User - violation of <a href="http://www.cas

    Occupation:
    computers
    Location:
    Houston TX
    mg bj

    Well yesterday i did someting i have only done one other time in my life, i took $500 of some of my winnings at casino classic and let $100 bets ride, got it up to $2000 and i even did the old tricky double downs. So maybe you just have to be at the right place at the right time
     
  12. Aug 17, 2005
  13. raol

    raol Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    Sweden
    Yeah, or maybe you just need to be lucky.
     
  14. Aug 17, 2005
  15. raol

    raol Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    Sweden
    As for the 100k-hands BJ experiment (I assume you are playing Vegas strip?), here are the standard deviations and expected values:

    SD = sqrt(100000)*1.167*1 ~= 369
    EV = -100000*0.003606*1 = -360.6

    Your result after 100k hands is a normally distributed variable with EV -360.6 and standard deviation 369.

    With 99 % probability your result will be within EV 2.85*SD i.e. between -1489 and +768.
    With 95 % probability your result will be within EV 1.96*SD i.e. between -1084 and +363.
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2005
  16. Aug 17, 2005
  17. scrollock

    scrollock Senior Member

    Occupation:
    google
    Location:
    boro, uk
    can i ask where the 1.167 figure comes from, i once seen it in a online BJ odds calculator and i never understood where it came from.
     
  18. Aug 17, 2005
  19. raol

    raol Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    Sweden
    You calculate the probabilities for all the possible outcomes of a blackjack-hand and evaluate the standard deviation.
    You must register/login in order to see the link.
     
  20. Aug 19, 2005
  21. vinylweatherman

    vinylweatherman You type well loads CAG MM

    Occupation:
    STILL At Leisure
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    BJ Experiment

    The experiment stopped at 80K hands due to server disconnect in one run causing loss of count (thus ruining the data). I needed to cash-in ahead of the next weekly promotion as I was not aware whether funds in the bank would spoil it (Turns out they would have done as only fresh deposits would count).
    I used the formula for expected loss I found on wizardofodds, and I got a result with a probability of 99.97 or 0.03% (depending which side of the line is being considered).

    I started with a balance of 3000 (2500 mine and a 500 bonus). The bonus, if used for BJ, carried a WR of 90,000. My expectation was to be able to conduct the experiment by sacrificing the bonus, but probably keeping my deposit intact.

    At the end of 80000 hands I had wagered a total of 90460 playing on a 1 level bet using the MG strategy table update for Vegas Strip BJ. At the end I had a balance of 3844. Half of this gain was in the first 20000 hands.
    What would be interesting would be continuing further. Most players seem to post downward swings of this magnitude, and cry "cheat", but little is heard about this length of run in the player's favour.
    I have managed before to wager 50,000 on JorB VP (in a tournament), with a rising balance, not including a Royal Flush payout.

    Had I been level betting 100, my gain would have been 84,400 - and many MG tables permit 500 level betting, which would have yielded 420,200 (had I been idiot enough to try this at home!!!!). This is a measure of the potential loss an MG casino can suffer to a BJ player, albeit with a probability of 0.03% or less.
    It seems that over a million hands are needed to reduce the margin of error sufficiently to see this as a trend, rather than simply a run of good luck.
    if anyone is interested in my spreadsheet records in order to perform or check my calculations I will try to post it in a readable & copyable format.
     
  22. Aug 19, 2005
  23. raol

    raol Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    Sweden
    Wow, nice run!

    Yes, i belive you calculated it right. You ended about 3.43 standard deviation above the expected value. The 0.03 % you are referring to is indeed the probabily of achieving this, or a better, result. Though you might want to consider this the event of finishing outside of 3.43 standard deviations, in which case you get the double probability, 0.06 %. (Otherwise you're really deciding after the run, by the results, which end of the distribution to look at, which isn't fair, this should be decided a priori. And if you are trying to determine if the game is unfair in the favor of the casino you ought to only look at the probilities on the negative end of the distribution.)

    I'm currently playing a bonus with a $190000 WR. I'm betting $2 a hand, so I'll also play some 80k-90k hands. I can share my results when i'm done.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2005

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