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Discussion in 'Casinomeister's Poker Room' started by mitch, Jan 14, 2006.

    Jan 14, 2006
  1. mitch

    mitch Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Secret
    Location:
    UK
    I have been playing Poker 6 months or so.

    Usually play limit on 6 seat ring games.

    A week ago I entered my first two pay NL tourneys ( played a few freerolls before). First was a 40K tourney and the second a satellite for a 500K tourney.

    Made the final table on both tourneys. This was the result.

    On the first tourney there were 4 left and I was all in on the flop with AA and a flop of A J 2 (would have made me the chip leader). My opponent had K7 (lol)! Guess what the turn and river cards were?

    In the second tourney I was all in with AK and a flop of A A 7. My opponent had A4. Guess what the river card was?

    Can any of you maths experts out there tell me what were the combined odds of losing both hands from the flop.

    When you consider these were the first pay tourneys I had entered, were on consecutive days and were both on the final table LOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

    Mitch
     
  2. Jan 14, 2006
  3. MPerkins

    MPerkins Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Military
    Location:
    Norfolk, VA.
    well maybe you just have an uncanny nak for bad beats or you just got real unlucky :)... anyways you are one of the lucky ones to start out playing limit.

    in my humble opinion (SP) when you start out playing limit and playing it fairly well you automatically get better at NL just by learning to only play top ranked hands so just keep pluggin away and you will see many wins my friend...


    just my 2 cents!!:lolup:
     
  4. Jan 14, 2006
  5. FiftyOnMe.com

    FiftyOnMe.com Dormant account

    Occupation:
    student
    Location:
    new york
    Wow crazyness - What pokersite was this at?
     
  6. Jan 14, 2006
  7. fatshaft

    fatshaft Full Member

    Location:
    Isle of Man
    I agree, you made the final table in the first two MTTs you've ever played, either you were incredibly lucky (most likely), you're incredibly good (possibly) or the opposition is dreadful (also quite possible).

    I have to know where this fish pond is?
     
  8. Jan 14, 2006
  9. mitch

    mitch Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Secret
    Location:
    UK
    Hi Fatshaft

    Site was Interpoker.

    I was probably lucky, upto then, as you say. But then again it is hard to progress very far in tourneys without a bit of luck along the way.

    Mitch
     
  10. Jan 15, 2006
  11. mitch

    mitch Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Secret
    Location:
    UK
    Just finished playing my 3rd pay NL tourney.

    Got to final table again!

    Went all in with 10 10 with a flop of A 10 2, opponent had KK. Lost on river. finished 8th.

    Think I am fated.

    Mitch
     
  12. Jan 15, 2006
  13. largeeyes

    largeeyes Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Engineer
    Location:
    North America
    You are the unluckiest luckiest SOB I ever saw.
     
  14. Jan 15, 2006
  15. nafanny29

    nafanny29 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    financail adviser
    Location:
    London, England
    The guy with KK was brave (wrong) to call an all in with an A out there. You have been extremely unlucky on all 3 hands, hope it turns around mate.
     
  16. Jan 16, 2006
  17. mitch

    mitch Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Secret
    Location:
    UK
    Currently playing my 4th pay tourney.

    I am on the final table again!!

    Will let you know how I get on later.

    Mitch
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2006
  18. Jan 16, 2006
  19. mitch

    mitch Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Secret
    Location:
    UK
    Finished 5th.

    My fault, bad play.

    Mitch
     
  20. Jan 16, 2006
  21. paul1

    paul1 Dormant account


    Queen and a Ten?

    :lolup:

    Holdem. Easy game. :rolleyes:
     
  22. Jan 17, 2006
  23. mitch

    mitch Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Secret
    Location:
    UK
    Good guess!!

    I am so sick about that last tourney. I was the chip leader with 5 left after winning an all in with KK.
    A few hands later feeling cocky (and drunk) I bluffed, all in, on an A high flop with nothing, trying to bully the table, and ran into a real, slow played, hand.
    A few hands later I called an all in bet with a good but not fantastic hand and was out.
    BAD play.

    Lesson, don't get too clever!

    Mitch
     
  24. Jan 30, 2006
  25. mitch

    mitch Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Secret
    Location:
    UK
    Since my last post I have finished 2nd in a fairly small buy in tourney. (out played!)

    Tonight I was in a much bigger tourney with a first prize of $2500 plus a seat at the WPT in Reno.

    I was on the final table, 5 left, I was a close 2nd in chips with more than twice the chips of 3rd.

    I drew AK and the chip leader went all in. I called and lost. (****) I think I am fated never to win a tourney!

    It was the crucial hand and he won the tourney less than 5 mins later.

    Was this the correct play or should I have laid down and waited to try and get heads up?

    Mitch
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2006
  26. Jan 30, 2006
  27. gmblpdam

    gmblpdam Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Webmaster
    Location:
    New York

    I would have made the same play in calling virtually any bet with ak 3 handed. Your playing for 1st not 2nd. So I say if you have a chance to accumulate more chips, take it.
     
  28. Feb 9, 2006
  29. ThePokerprof

    ThePokerprof Dormant account

    Occupation:
    poker player & jr webmaster
    Location:
    Currently Buenos Aires
    Totally agree, right play with AK IMO.

    I have to disagree with this though:
    Sorry! lol

    Sounds like you are doing very well on the MTTs, hang in there, you should finish first soon enough! Good luck.
     
  30. Feb 21, 2006
  31. BBKPoker

    BBKPoker halfway to busto PABrogue3

    Occupation:
    None
    Location:
    Edinburgh, Seattle, Vancouver BC, Auckland
    Roughly .21% or once in five hundred times.

    Assume no other cards are known and suits are irrelevant (ie no backdoor flushes possible):

    Hand 1: AA vs K/7 on flop of A/J/2. No splits are possible. Opponent can only win by catching 8/45 outs on the turn (any queen or ten) then 4/44 outs on the river (whatever card he didn't catch on turn). 32/1980 event or about 1.6%.

    Hand 2: AK vs A4 on flop of A/A/7. Lots of splits possible. 7 pairing the board (when an ace doesn't hit) or any running pair will be a split pot. I think the -ev split pot scenarios just about mitigate the +ev value of hitting a king (in which case you win the entire pot) or pairing the 7 (to split a pot) as redraws when your opponent does hit their 4 kicker, so I'm going to basically omit that. Your opponent has 42/45*41/44 chances of missing a 4 on the flop or turn, which is an 86.9% chance of missing and a 13.1% chance of hitting.

    The chances of both events happening consecutively are 1.6%*13.1% or just a hair over .21%.

    Neither are close to the most unlikely events (the most unlikely individual flop event is flopping top set and losing to a smaller pocket pair hitting running quads or a spread five straight flush draw completing in case you were wondering) but pretty bad all the same.
     

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