INCREDIBLE

mitch

Dormant account
I have been playing Poker 6 months or so.

Usually play limit on 6 seat ring games.

A week ago I entered my first two pay NL tourneys ( played a few freerolls before). First was a 40K tourney and the second a satellite for a 500K tourney.

Made the final table on both tourneys. This was the result.

On the first tourney there were 4 left and I was all in on the flop with AA and a flop of A J 2 (would have made me the chip leader). My opponent had K7 (lol)! Guess what the turn and river cards were?

In the second tourney I was all in with AK and a flop of A A 7. My opponent had A4. Guess what the river card was?

Can any of you maths experts out there tell me what were the combined odds of losing both hands from the flop.

When you consider these were the first pay tourneys I had entered, were on consecutive days and were both on the final table LOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

Mitch
 

MPerkins

Dormant account
well maybe you just have an uncanny nak for bad beats or you just got real unlucky :)... anyways you are one of the lucky ones to start out playing limit.

in my humble opinion (SP) when you start out playing limit and playing it fairly well you automatically get better at NL just by learning to only play top ranked hands so just keep pluggin away and you will see many wins my friend...


just my 2 cents!!:lolup:
 

fatshaft

Full Member
FiftyOnMe.com said:
Wow crazyness - What pokersite was this at?
I agree, you made the final table in the first two MTTs you've ever played, either you were incredibly lucky (most likely), you're incredibly good (possibly) or the opposition is dreadful (also quite possible).

I have to know where this fish pond is?
 

mitch

Dormant account
Hi Fatshaft

Site was Interpoker.

I was probably lucky, upto then, as you say. But then again it is hard to progress very far in tourneys without a bit of luck along the way.

Mitch
 

mitch

Dormant account
Just finished playing my 3rd pay NL tourney.

Got to final table again!

Went all in with 10 10 with a flop of A 10 2, opponent had KK. Lost on river. finished 8th.

Think I am fated.

Mitch
 

nafanny29

Dormant account
mitch said:
Just finished playing my 3rd pay NL tourney.

Got to final table again!

Went all in with 10 10 with a flop of A 10 2, opponent had KK. Lost on river. finished 8th.

Think I am fated.

Mitch
The guy with KK was brave (wrong) to call an all in with an A out there. You have been extremely unlucky on all 3 hands, hope it turns around mate.
 

mitch

Dormant account
Currently playing my 4th pay tourney.

I am on the final table again!!

Will let you know how I get on later.

Mitch
 
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paul1

Dormant account
mitch said:
On the first tourney there were 4 left and I was all in on the flop with AA and a flop of A J 2 (would have made me the chip leader). My opponent had K7 (lol)! Guess what the turn and river cards were?

Queen and a Ten?

:lolup:

Holdem. Easy game. :rolleyes:
 

mitch

Dormant account
Good guess!!

I am so sick about that last tourney. I was the chip leader with 5 left after winning an all in with KK.
A few hands later feeling cocky (and drunk) I bluffed, all in, on an A high flop with nothing, trying to bully the table, and ran into a real, slow played, hand.
A few hands later I called an all in bet with a good but not fantastic hand and was out.
BAD play.

Lesson, don't get too clever!

Mitch
 

mitch

Dormant account
Since my last post I have finished 2nd in a fairly small buy in tourney. (out played!)

Tonight I was in a much bigger tourney with a first prize of $2500 plus a seat at the WPT in Reno.

I was on the final table, 5 left, I was a close 2nd in chips with more than twice the chips of 3rd.

I drew AK and the chip leader went all in. I called and lost. (****) I think I am fated never to win a tourney!

It was the crucial hand and he won the tourney less than 5 mins later.

Was this the correct play or should I have laid down and waited to try and get heads up?

Mitch
 
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gmblpdam

Dormant account
mitch said:
Since my last post I have finished 2nd in a fairly small buy in tourney. (out played!)

Tonight I was in a much bigger tourney with a first prize of $2500 plus a seat at the WPT in Reno.

I was on the final table, 5 left, I was a close 2nd in chips with more than twice the chips of 3rd.

I drew AK and the chip leader went all in. I called and lost. (****) I think I am fated never to win a tourney!

It was the crucial hand and he won the tourney less than 5 mins later.

Was this the correct play or should I have laid down and waited to try and get heads up?

Mitch

I would have made the same play in calling virtually any bet with ak 3 handed. Your playing for 1st not 2nd. So I say if you have a chance to accumulate more chips, take it.
 

BBKPoker

halfway to busto
PABrogue3
mitch said:
On the first tourney there were 4 left and I was all in on the flop with AA and a flop of A J 2 (would have made me the chip leader). My opponent had K7 (lol)! Guess what the turn and river cards were?

In the second tourney I was all in with AK and a flop of A A 7. My opponent had A4. Guess what the river card was?

Can any of you maths experts out there tell me what were the combined odds of losing both hands from the flop.
Roughly .21% or once in five hundred times.

Assume no other cards are known and suits are irrelevant (ie no backdoor flushes possible):

Hand 1: AA vs K/7 on flop of A/J/2. No splits are possible. Opponent can only win by catching 8/45 outs on the turn (any queen or ten) then 4/44 outs on the river (whatever card he didn't catch on turn). 32/1980 event or about 1.6%.

Hand 2: AK vs A4 on flop of A/A/7. Lots of splits possible. 7 pairing the board (when an ace doesn't hit) or any running pair will be a split pot. I think the -ev split pot scenarios just about mitigate the +ev value of hitting a king (in which case you win the entire pot) or pairing the 7 (to split a pot) as redraws when your opponent does hit their 4 kicker, so I'm going to basically omit that. Your opponent has 42/45*41/44 chances of missing a 4 on the flop or turn, which is an 86.9% chance of missing and a 13.1% chance of hitting.

The chances of both events happening consecutively are 1.6%*13.1% or just a hair over .21%.

Neither are close to the most unlikely events (the most unlikely individual flop event is flopping top set and losing to a smaller pocket pair hitting running quads or a spread five straight flush draw completing in case you were wondering) but pretty bad all the same.
 
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