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i know variance, but this really got me

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by Takkaone, Dec 4, 2009.

    Dec 4, 2009
  1. Takkaone

    Takkaone Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    logistics (strangely has VERY little to do with "l
    Location:
    somewhere surrounded by incompetence (geographic l
    Hi! Well, i dont have anyone, interested in gambling, so i decided, to tell you my last evening, jumping sky-high and falling into a bit of misery... ;-)

    A bit bored, i deposited 50 euro at a microgaming-casino, and started playing "Supe It Up" for the first time. As always, when first play a slot, i made notes about how many spins i would need, to hit freespins.

    I started playing 2cent per line, and was very surprised, to get 20 freespins (they are 6x multiplier at this slot) twice in my first hundred spins, counting the first freespins in...... And they hit very nice, so started upping my bets, and everytime the freespins came again after a short time.

    In the first 700 spins, i got 160 freespins with this nice 6x multiplier, and vent from 50 euro to over 900. And from 2cent per line up to 20c per line. I really was thinking, it would go this way the whole night somehow. I got caught in how hot the slot was running, and there was the huge downfall for me (i know, i am an idiot)...

    After this hot run, the slot vent 600 spins without hitting the freespins once!!! But i did not want to accept it and cash out. Everytime i saw one scatter-symbol, i told myself, the other two are right around the corner.
    As fast, as i had upped my bet, as slow i lowered it, "knowing" that in a few spins it will get hot again.....very clever...

    Well long story short, i went broke through those 600 spins without feature, because i could not leave a slot, which i loved so much after the first 700 spins.

    So, to stop boring you: I dont play very much, and never experienced this kind of variance. The first 700 spins (including 160freespins) and then 600 with NOTHING. What are your worst experiences with this bitch of variance?

    And, equally important, how do you get yourself up from the computer with nice winnings withdrawn, instead of playing till the account is empty??
     
  2. Dec 4, 2009
  3. AudiManinBoro

    AudiManinBoro Ueber Meister MM

    Occupation:
    Sales
    Location:
    UK
    Its easy. There is a cash out button. :thumbsup:
     
    2 people like this.
  4. Dec 4, 2009
  5. De Beuker

    De Beuker Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Production
    Location:
    Netherlands
    This is just normal behavior for these slots, as you mention yourself, its high variance, they pay alot in a short time, then they go into munchmode again.
    Next time, cash out half of your winnings if your up a nice amount, and play on with the rest.(at not so high stakes)
    I never play one slotgame too long, as soon as I see its getting icecold, I move on to another one.
    Or try to set a goal, 10x deposit is cashout.
     
  6. Dec 4, 2009
  7. Balky

    Balky Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Translator
    Location:
    Croatia
    Cash out right after meeting the WR, because then all the available balance is turned into cash. By redepositing some of the withdrawn amount a higher balance is available for playing. Sounds logical, but requires some selfdiscipline.

    Cheers Balky
     
  8. Dec 4, 2009
  9. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Location:
    Bexhill on sea, England
    Could not have said it better myself! :thumbsup:

    The odds of getting the free-spins on Supe It Up are 1 in 152.46 spins.

    Sounds like you got them 8 times in 700 spins = well above the average of just under 5 times.
    Then 0 times in 600 spins = well below the average of 4 times.
    But overall you got the free-spins 8 times in 1300 spins = pretty much bang on the average.

    That's variance for you! :mad:

    KK
     
    1 person likes this.
  10. Dec 4, 2009
  11. BingoCindy

    BingoCindy Dormant account

    Occupation:
    operations manager
    Location:
    Land of the Ropers
    That good old selfdiscipline; a skill thats never ending to perfect. I know Im still trying to:cool:

    Cheers,
    Cindy
     
    1 person likes this.
  12. Dec 4, 2009
  13. Takkaone

    Takkaone Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    logistics (strangely has VERY little to do with "l
    Location:
    somewhere surrounded by incompetence (geographic l
    yeah, of course you are all correct, cash out after meeting the WR, and then deposit lower or maybe try another casinobonus... but are you allways this logical, while you are gambling?

    @kasinoking: those numbers, where can i get them from? would be a nice help, to choose the right slot, for what i want at the moment i start playing. like looking for those high-variance bigpay things when i want action, and playing something smooth to kill time, or end some wagering requirements....

    and to get those "idiot-gambler-thinking" out of my head. like this machine is hot right now or those things.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2009
  14. Dec 4, 2009
  15. Wildfire7

    Wildfire7 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Engineering
    Location:
    UK
    All very good advice. I have encountered these almost dramatic change in fortunes during a session. As an example I have seen Spring Break retrigger 5 times during the free spins, then you get those nights where you cant hit even 2 scatters. This is partly what makes it so exciting!

    The best way I have found to tackle these kind of swings is to make smaller withdrawals as you are winning, rather than waiting till the end of the session in an attempt to make 1 large withdrawal.

    Also after a streak like you have experienced I would be getting out of that slot completely and leave it alone until another session. So rather than waiting for that long losing streak to arrive, get out early and try another game.

    Always bear in mind no matter how much you are up, it is your money now, not the casinos, so keep those bets in proportion with the bankroll, and try and remember that target figure you had in your mind at the start of the session what you would have settled for. Because when you are up loads, the only thing thats really changed is your adrenaline levels.

    Mike
     
  16. Dec 4, 2009
  17. Jasminebed

    Jasminebed Closer to 100 than Birth

    Occupation:
    Not in workforce
    Location:
    Ontario
    :lolup: ROFLMA, I'm glad your cashout button is easy! Perhaps mine migrated south with the geese.

    Seriously, it's good advice, but not always easy.

    Alone and bored put you at risk for not playing as smartly as possible. But it is a good a reason as any to play, to entertain ourselves. The highs and lows of gambling is part of why us slot players play, maybe even the only part. I certainly trust that 50 was money you were prepared to lose. Prepared, but hoping to win. Hopeful is a very positive mental state. Expecting to win is delusional:p

    Seems like a really reasonable betsize for your bankroll. Varying your betsize increases your variation, but as I said, it's good to be hopeful. That means full of hope, not full of expectation.

    The element of "surprise" is a very powerful motivator. Rats will ingest more cocaine and press a lever more often for periodic reinforcement than constant reinforcement.

    I've said a few times, it's worse when I'm winning. Poker, this is called "TILT".

    You lucky SOB. That slot only steals from me. You say you know variance. Kasino King's site You must register/login in order to see the link. lays out a few MG reels, but not Supe It Up. But you have to know for any slot with 20 spins @6x, and payouts to boot, not dead rounds, you beat the variance by a long shot. Much as I believe you can't lose all the time, I believe the converse, you can't win all the time.

    OMG why are you gambling when you could be running a psychic hotline to make money:rolleyes:

    Please forgive me if I sound like I am picking on you. I never "know" I am going to win, but I am very hopeful. Sounds like you have some insight into your behaviour, and knowledge is power.

    I've been gambling for over 30 years, and I've made most mistakes. I try not to make the same ones over and over

    Well, Mega Moolah does me in for the love of the slot thing. I have no expectation and minimal hope for the MegaMillions, but I am overly hopeful for the freespins and way to hopeful for the $10 or $100 win on the Minor or Mini jackpot.

    I was not bored. I`ve played a lot. Years B&M`s, more recently online. I don`t track stats really closely, since MILLIONs of spins, not hundreds or thousands, or even tens of thousands determine payback percentages and variance.

    The five line The High Life at MG is not a high variance slot Bonus hits for 10 spins at 2X pay. When I first started playing MG, I went 2000 spins without a feature. When I did hit it, it paid about 6X bet.

    I`ve did better since.

    This is truly excellent advice from De Beuker. I lost the cashout button for a period recently after a big win. I believe he offered me the same advice recently.

    To quote my late brother `Take my my advice I`m not using it`

    I`d actually kind of forgotten that you can withdraw part, but not all of your winnings.

    700 winning spins and 600 losing spins can go by quite quicky.

    De Beuker`s advice to set a goal is excellent advice. Your goals may vary from mine, or another players.

    On a 50 euro deposit, you might consider cashing 250 at 350, leaving yourself twice your deposit for further gambling. It`s late, you`re alone, you are bored, and you want to play for a certain length of time.

    Whatever goals you have, try to stick by them. Your goals may reflect your needs from the gambling experience, not all players have the same goals.

    You mentioned that you were over 900 ahead. I can`t tell you how many times I`ve chased that 1000 ahead point and busted. But I`m getting a little smarter over time, and partly due to helpful reminders from other players. Cashing out when you get 10x a 50 deposit sounds great, especially when it leaves you some to still play with to be entertained and to be hopeful.

    Enzo at 3Dice recently said part of how they determine the `variabilty` of a slot is the number of spins a player might expect with a 50 deposit and a 500 cashout goal.

    I try not to beat myself up too badly over past mistakes. You lost 50 you risked, had highs and lows and a more entertaining evening that TV affords. Oftimes we are not that entertained.

    Hope you understand that we here at CM are trying to be helpful, not critical. It`s helpful for me to remind myself from time to time of my goals.
     
    6 people like this.
  18. Dec 4, 2009
  19. Jasminebed

    Jasminebed Closer to 100 than Birth

    Occupation:
    Not in workforce
    Location:
    Ontario
    Sorry, a couple of posts whilst I was composing.

    OP did not indicate he took a bonus of any kind. One of the reasons I do take a good bonus is to have a cashout goal in mind. I do better with that tough goal in mind other than less tangible ones.

    I find it helpful to regard online gambling in a similar light to B&M gambling. Cash out and move on. I don`t always cashout, and I sometimes throw another 20 in, but I do try to not exceed my goals by too much.

    Whether you continue to play the same slot or a different slot or a different casino, the longer we gamble the more we lose. When we gamble at higher stakes, we lose faster.

    Not always, and that`s what keeps us coming back.

    Really helpful advice to me came from other players to buy something concrete when you do cashout. Helps makes you feel better if you have something to show for all the money you spent and could have bought that stuff otherwise:p
     
  20. Dec 5, 2009
  21. Takkaone

    Takkaone Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    logistics (strangely has VERY little to do with "l
    Location:
    somewhere surrounded by incompetence (geographic l
    Wow, jasminebed! Very good post...

    I dont even know, what to qoute, because i read your whole post while thinking, "yeah, obviously thats right..."

    after rereading my post, and thinking about it with some hours after my gambling session, it is all nothing dramatic.
    50 bucks for some hours of entertainment, and a cause to start posting here, sounds quiet cheap. ;-)

    its most likely a personality-thing. i get really deep into what i do, WHEN i do something, or into situations. for me the good things are always super-good and the bad things are always the worst thing ever..:rolleyes: but with like half an hour taking a deep breath, everything is call again :)

    exactly what i wrote in my op, is probably what i, and a lot of gamblers love so much at gambling. the intense ups and downs in a short period of time. and that is, why the casinos build those high-variance machines. because thats, what we really want...


    and as you mentioned poker and tilt: its way easier for me, to win and loose big sums at a slot in a few hours... like you said, i deposited only 50 dollars and did no work, to build it up. i find it way harder, to grind out a pokerroll over weeks, and then having a drunken night, or go on monkeytilt, and drop it all over the course of some hours, because i dont only loose money, but also hard work....

    so, what is the essence of this thread for me: i should not get so emo or worked up about winnings and losses! but on the other hand, that "emotional rollercoaster", is why i sat at the computer gambling, and not watching tv....
     
    1 person likes this.
  22. Dec 5, 2009
  23. nisosbar

    nisosbar Ueber Meister PABnonaccred

    Occupation:
    Other
    Location:
    Right here
    Playing for that last hit is always a temptation. Basically I quit if I double my money, and cash out. Boring, perhaps, but over time, it adds up big time.
     
  24. Dec 5, 2009
  25. bernynhel

    bernynhel Dormant account PABnononaccred PABnoaccred

    Occupation:
    Loafer
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    If those of us who say,"its easy, hit the cash out button", actually hit the cashout button every time we promised ourselves we would before we started, or if everyone followed their logic, doing what we know we have to do, we wouldn't be having this discussion because there wouldn't be any casinos left as we would have cleaned them all out.

    Sure, manage your bankroll, cash out several times as you go, the slot you started playing's a dog, move on - everyone here has heard it over and over. But if gambling were only based on logic, would we even bother playing? Hell no! Luckily, for the casinos, it's all based on emotion and biological, producing jazz juice in your brain when you're winning that you crave like dope. That's the war you're really waging and it's against yourself and if you can't hold your own and win a few more battles than you lose, then you don't get to apply any logic and you just have to settle being satisfied with the "playtime".
     
    2 people like this.
  26. Dec 5, 2009
  27. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Location:
    Bexhill on sea, England
    Like Jasmine said, I have figures for some MG slots on my site here:-
    You must register/login in order to see the link.

    I do also have figures for Supe it Up (same for Isis by the way) and a few other slots which aren't on that page; each one takes many hours to analise and get all the data up on the site, and I haven't done any new ones for about a year due to a total lack of interest from the playing community as a whole. :(

    KK
     
  28. Dec 5, 2009
  29. skiny

    skiny Banned User - violation of <a href="http://www.cas

    Occupation:
    Doing everyone else's job.
    Location:
    Canada
    Well, if we're talking about Microgaming slots the outcome seems inevitable. In the few years Ive been gambling online Ive managed quite a few nice little withdrawals from RTG and a couple of RJs. Ive had a few withdrawals from 3Dice of varying size. Ive never made a withdrawal from any Microgaming casino. I started gambling online with Microgaming. That was all I played for the first year and at that point I was pretty much convinced that it was impossible to really win anything. It wasnt until I started playing RTG I realized cashing out was a possibility.

    Now I make small deposits. I usually deposit anywhere from 50 dollars down to the minimum allowed. Ill cash out with 4 or 5 times my deposit. I dont think taking 25 dollars up to 100 dollars should be asking too much. It happens on a regular basis with RTG and several times with 3Dice. It doesnt happen with Microgaming. Ive tried all the slot games a thousand times over. I dont get stuck on a game thats not paying. I move around a lot. But this is what happens every single time I play Microgaming. I deposit lets say 30 dollars. I play 1 or 2 coins and if Im lucky I hit a bonus feature or two and maybe jack it up to 50 or 60 dollars. Thats the end of the bonus features. It doesnt matter what game I play or how long I play it. I can play 50 spins on 20 games or 2000 spins on one game. The bonus features no longer exist and without the bonus features in these games I just go broke.

    Since I started playing solely Microgaming and switched to RTG and 3Dice later on, Ive played at least 3 times as many sessions with Microgaming than I have with RTG in the last few years and this is the pattern every single session follows and this is why if I want to play and at least feel like cashing out is possible I play RTG or 3Dice.

    The bonus features tend to dry up with RTG and 3Dice too but not 100% of the sessions. When I play Microgaming its guaranteed the bonus features will just disappear and Ive watched as much as 70 dollars dwindle down to nothing on 1 coin spins for that reason.

    Im sure the RNG is checked but I dont buy this constant statement that the games are fair just because the RNG is checked. Random does not equal fair. Which leaves the second most popular statement. I have bad luck. About 3 years of the same bad luck only with this software and different luck using other software.

    I could make all kinds of accusations but I wont bother. Suffice it to say with Microgaming youre only going to get a few bonus features at the start and if you get anymore than that youre playing on borrowed time. The bonus features are leaving and theyre not coming back until you make another deposit.

    Its like sitting on the mechanical horse in front of the grocery store. Its great fun until your quarter runs out and youre welcome to sit on it waving your arms all day but youre not really going to enjoy it until someone comes along and puts another quarter in.
     
  30. Dec 5, 2009
  31. bernynhel

    bernynhel Dormant account PABnononaccred PABnoaccred

    Occupation:
    Loafer
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    My experience has been the exact opposite.

    We only differ in that I started playing at Microgaming, RTG, Vegas Technology, Playtech, CryptoLogic and G-Fed Casinos, plus several sites running proprietary software, all at the same time not quite 7 years ago (DAMN I miss PlayTech!). In all that time I have made withdrawals from RTG casinos only about a half a dozen times versus nearly 100 cash outs from MG casinos, including just under $18.5k - http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/188944-post9274.html - from UKCasino Club when it was still operated by the now defunct Casino Action Group, prior to its acquisition by Casino Rewards. And that win from a first time deposit of $80 which I had intended to supplement with a 1st-Time-Deposit-Bonus but managed to cancel before it was credited (after increasing my balance to around $3,000) within the first 15 or 20 minutes of depositing.

    More recently, the following since 11/20/09:

    http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/332421-post17162.html, http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/332418-post17161.html,
    http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/332415-post17159.html,
    http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/332413-post17158.html,
    http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/331888-post17118.html.

    My "GoTo" MG Games/Plan of Attack, usuallly with deposits ranging from $37.11 - $77.77 sometimes supplemented with a weekly deposit match offer from a couple of groups I frequent, sometimes not and in order of usual play: Ho Ho Ho, Isis, Glory of Rome, Days of Tsar, Tally Ho, Jacks or Better VP then, if I have doubled my deposit on the previous group: (in no particular order) Deck the Halls, Cashapillar, Cashanova, Cashville, Mayan Princess, Fat Lady Sings, Loaded, Reel Thunder, Break da Bank Again, various 3 reelers and assorted single hand VP. Of course I experement with slots I have never played, but not much, unless I see "Winner Screenshots" that inspire me.

    I have no idea as to WTF I've been doing wrong at RTG all this time but I just seem to have never gotten my groove on there. And for the last year anna half at least I've stuck to the top "Winner Screenshots" RTG sites and slots. Though, from lack of previous success, only a couple of times a month.

    Well I'm extremely interested but since I only just joined CM in Jan, '07, I didn't know about it 'til I saw your post, below (or, above, depending). The one I'm quoting in this post. Now.

    I wish I had known about your site before I flushed about $20 of my bankroll down the toilet aka the Microgaming slot, Mark of Medusa, which I just got around to playing, for the first time, only yesterday. Knowing what I know, now, and, after seeing my opinion loosely echoed on your site, and I quote, "Sorry, but this is CRAP!", (why are you sorry? lol) the coincidental theme of our separate analogies doesn't seem so remarkable. :lolup:

    (By the way...What a monumental undertaking! Man O man! What a chore I bet that had to have been just to get the point you went on hiatus!! KUDOS!!!! And... Is it just me, or, other than the link you posted for your MG slot data, is there no access for U.S. Players to the grayed out MG Link on your homepage? It's labeled "work in progress just". I added the page as a seperate addition to my Favorites, but just curious)
     
    1 person likes this.
  32. Dec 6, 2009
  33. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Location:
    Bexhill on sea, England
    No, it's not just you. The link is gray for everyone!
    I set it up like that when I first started compiling the page, just to indicate that it was far from complete... and it still is. (Hard to get motivated to spend grueling hours over it when the site hardly gets any visitors :().
    The link does work however!

    KK
     
    1 person likes this.
  34. Dec 6, 2009
  35. skiny

    skiny Banned User - violation of <a href="http://www.cas

    Occupation:
    Doing everyone else's job.
    Location:
    Canada
    My experience never changes. Two more deposits at Aspinalls both exactly the same as I described. Actually the second deposit of 20 bucks dropped to zero at minimum bet without a single bonus feature. Still running on from the last deposit making it close to 70 dollars straight at one and two coins per spin on 20 and 25 line games with no free spins.

    And it makes no difference which casino I play at. If I play Microgaming this is what I get.

    Microgaming is like a can of beans. No matter how many different labels you put on it when you peel the label off and look inside it's still just the same can of beans.
     
  36. Dec 6, 2009
  37. bernynhel

    bernynhel Dormant account PABnononaccred PABnoaccred

    Occupation:
    Loafer
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    LOL! It never occurred to me to click on a gray link, thanks!

    Couldn't you just write a program for a bot that could log into a casino and automatically analyze each slot and arrange the data collected into your predetermined array of tables? Seems like that woulda been the way to go.

    Bummer. And you tried the "game plan" I laid out? I've never divulged that to anyone! That was for your eyes only, buddy! And "Aspinalls" sounds like a nasty tasting medicine. Or a suppository? (I wouldn't know what one a those tastes like).

    This from early this AM: http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/334949-post17294.html
     
  38. Dec 6, 2009
  39. skiny

    skiny Banned User - violation of <a href="http://www.cas

    Occupation:
    Doing everyone else's job.
    Location:
    Canada
    You know the reason they call them suppositories is because the first time the doctor prescribes them you say "I'm supposed to put it where!!??"
     

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