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Horse Racing & Tips Thread

colinsunderland said:
2.55N I would be surprised if Thunder Moon doesn't win this. Currently best priced 11/4, he has been very impressive in his two races to date. Wembley met trouble in a race he was beaten by Thunder Moon, and was finishing like a train, so would have him as the danger/FC
Click to expand...


This is a race I am looking forward to watching.
I was very sweet on Cadillac all morning at 7/1 each way 4 places.

I agree wembley and in particular thunder moon look serious prospects and the national stakes thunder moon won looks a good renewal. Chindit is also a very nice prospect. I expect to lots of 3 year old group race winners come from this race this next year.
But I cant get away from Cadillac at current prices even at 7f rather than a mile. The pace should be quick enough to put that worry to bed.

Van Gogh runs in the 2.20 at newmarket and I will watch closely as Cadillac beat him by 4 lengths or so last time they met. So that would be a lovely line of form if van gogh wins.

Gl to all punting
 
Slottery said:
Have to be happy for 2/2 winners today, first one 12/1 and second 20/1, now better start drinking and stop betting for a while ....
Click to expand...

When discussing the horses in the race with my friend. Kingsbrook was one that stood out to me Also looked at Kipps. Very tricky to say who would win that well done for actually going with Kingsbrook.
 
Not very often Sean goes to a meeting for one ride, and doesn't come away with place money at least.
4.15NA Cubao, Unibet 9/1 4 places. Having a decent EW single on this.

2.45
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will either win, or fall. Certainly wouldn't be backing it at evens considering it's fell in 50% of it's races. I won't be in, but would be happy to lay it mid race, maybe around 4 out, as when it falls it tends to be at one of the last 4 fences. Every race it's ran in above a C4 he has fell in.

1.45 The Mick Preston is well thought of, but the lack of money for it suggests today isn't going to be the day when it shines.

In the big Irish race, Kings Vow 12/1 6 places is a decent EW along with De Name Escapes Me at 33's.

Good luck guys
 
colinsunderland said:
Not very often Sean goes to a meeting for one ride, and doesn't come away with place money at least.
4.15NA Cubao, Unibet 9/1 4 places. Having a decent EW single on this.

2.45
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will either win, or fall. Certainly wouldn't be backing it at evens considering it's fell in 50% of it's races. I won't be in, but would be happy to lay it mid race, maybe around 4 out, as when it falls it tends to be at one of the last 4 fences. Every race it's ran in above a C4 he has fell in.

1.45 The Mick Preston is well thought of, but the lack of money for it suggests today isn't going to be the day when it shines.

In the big Irish race, Kings Vow 12/1 6 places is a decent EW along with De Name Escapes Me at 33's.

Good luck guys
Click to expand...

Seans let me down typically the main bet of the day, ended up slightly in profit though

The Mick Preston was 2nd at 13/2
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was beaten and although he didn't fall, mistakes at the 4th last and again at the 3rd last, when looking like the winner.
Both picks in the Irish Ces were placed.
 
A much needed chill day so I have gone ott on the betting front :p Here are my Irish bets for today but I am wondering how many non runners I have caught?

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

10. Lustown Baba
3/1
15th Oct CURRAGH 13:35 6F STAKES 6f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

4. Midnight Fire
9/2
15th Oct CURRAGH 14:05 6F HCAP 6f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places

5. Youceeyouceecee
13/2
15th Oct CURRAGH 14:40 7F HCAP 7f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places

8. Emerald Green
6/1
15th Oct CURRAGH 16:25 1M 4F HCAP 1m 4f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places

And

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

8. Shedding
5/1
15th Oct TRAMORE 13:45 2M HCAP HURDLE 2m - Each Way
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places

1. Multifactorial
15/4
15th Oct TRAMORE 14:18 2M 5F HURDLE 2m 5f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

10. Tiantu
15/4
15th Oct TRAMORE 14:53 2M 5F HCAP HURDLE 2m 5f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

1. Itsalonglongroad
10/3
15th Oct TRAMORE 15:28 2M CHASE 2m - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
 
1.20A I'm not keen on Stradivarius, he had a hard race in the Arc, less than 2 weeks ago, on heavy, and I'm not sure if he will be up to winning this. Big well done to the trainer though if he does. I don't think Search For A Song or Fujaira Prince are going to stay this trip, which takes us to Sovereign. Form is strong, but doesn't always show it on course, but well worth an EW bet at the current 11/1 4 places with Betfair.

1.55A Art Power. Think this one will love the soft, and the stiffer test than when he was behind Dream of Dreams recently. Certainly can't see him out the first 4. 11/1 4 places.

2.30A just going on jockey bookings along, I presume Mehdaayih is doing ok at home, as Frankie could have had either of the Oppenheimer entrants (inc the 2nd fav) but instead picked this one. It's had a steady stream of money for it over the past couple of days, having been 14/1, now best priced 7/1 4 places. I'm not a massive Frankie fan, but sometimes his bookings can be telling.

4.15A Graignes. I'll probably regret this due to bloody Nicola Currie being on board, but cherry picking the form, this should have a decent chance of a place, and the race should be set up for it's running style of coming from behind (cue Nicola sprinting out the stalls, going 10l clear in the first furlong, and coming 20 lengths last). Currently 33/1 5 places (Paddy). Raaeq shouldn't be out the first 5, and is the most likely winner, currently 5/1.

3.40A Mishriff is around 7/2 at the moment, going to do it in a double with palace pier in the previous race at 8/13, double paying around 6.2/1.

Elsewhere I think the Bowens will have a good day today noteably

3.53S Francky Du Berlais (4/1)
4.03S Game Line (4/1)
4.31MR Beggars Wishes (10/1)
5.36MR Mon Ray (best EW bet, currently 15/2)
 
3 placed yesterday, the EW lucky 15 returning £135 (£ EW). Typically the other one finished one place out the placings which would have taken the winnings to around £450 I think/

Couple in the Juvenille Hurdle races that should do ok.

1.15K Viroflay should win this and the price reflects his chance. Assuming all 8 line up, then I think Chinese Whisperer will get placed, at around 7/1.

2.15S Time Voyage has the clear form to win this, although his pedigree suggests he won't be as good over timber. The stable don't have a particularly good record around here either, and at 1/3 I wouldn't be touching it. That said Time Voyage could win by half the track, but I think a safer option would be to go for Where's The Tape at 33/1.

In the Welsh Champion Hurdle, 3.10FL Lightly Squeeze runs. Sean doesn't ride him very often, but usually wins or places when he does. Lightly Squeeze ran up a hat trick of wins last season, and although he fell at the last on his last start, was looking like he would be 1st or 2nd then. Had a recent run out on the flat, so should be fit, can't see him being out the first 4, currently 9/1 4 places. Thebannerkingrebel is the one with the form, and is 3lb better off, also with a 10lb claimer on board, however I think Sean is a much more powerful jockey and will prove that this afternoon.

Some strange riding arrangements today from the Bowen's. Peter has 3 at FL, yet despite Sean & James being at the track, neither are riding for him. He has also sent Lord Napier over to Sedgefield (3.25) which might be a clue in itself. It's a very long journey to take with one horse, and can't see him doing it unless expecting a return on the investment.
 
13:15 Pontefract - 1m Nursery
Diamond Haze
outright


13:45 Pontefract - 1m Listed Stks
Pythagoras
outright


15:20 Pontefract - Betting W/O favourite
Wades Magic
outright


15:50 Pontefract - Betting W/O favourite
Viva Voce
outright
 
dave1888 said:
13:15 Pontefract - 1m Nursery
Diamond Haze
outright


13:45 Pontefract - 1m Listed Stks
Pythagoras
outright


15:20 Pontefract - Betting W/O favourite
Wades Magic
outright


15:50 Pontefract - Betting W/O favourite
Viva Voce
outright
Click to expand...

Nowhere, 1st, 4th and 5th. Not so good today. 1 out of 4...
 
I'm not one for backing in Ireland but I know the stable and owners really like Robinnia in the 2.05 at Tipperary tomorrow. The 11/4 has gone pretty much everywhere now, just PP and Betfair still offering that price, and it's trading lower on the exchange.
 
colinsunderland said:
I'm not one for backing in Ireland but I know the stable and owners really like Robinnia in the 2.05 at Tipperary tomorrow. The 11/4 has gone pretty much everywhere now, just PP and Betfair still offering that price, and it's trading lower on the exchange.
Click to expand...
Did it win?

I hate placing my Irish bets so early because there usually a lot of none runners come race time but needs must

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

9. Tullypole Annie
7/2
24th Oct LEOPARDSTOWN 14:29 7F HCAP 7f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

11. Day Dreamin
9/2
24th Oct LEOPARDSTOWN 15:04 7F HCAP 7f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places

10. Amma Grace
7/2
24th Oct LEOPARDSTOWN 16:14 1M 2F STAKES 1m 2f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places

2. The Names Jock
9/1
24th Oct LEOPARDSTOWN 16:49 1M 2F HCAP 1m 2f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places

And

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

3. Chatham Street Lad
6/1
24th Oct GALWAY 14:47 2M 2F CHASE 2m 2f 54yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places


5. Frontal Assault
7/2
24th Oct GALWAY 15:22 2M 1/2F HURDLE 2m 90yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

3. Westerner Point
9/2
24th Oct GALWAY 15:57 2M 5F HCAP HURDLE 2m 5f 37yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

12. Feyan
4/1
24th Oct GALWAY 16:32 2M 5F HCAP HURDLE 2m 5f 37yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
Best Odds

Good luck if your having a punt :)
 
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No, it was running well and looking like winning until the last furlong where lack of fitness took it's toll and it faded badly. Will be backing it next time out.

In the 3.50C I initially liked Cogry, but yesterday a lot of Twiston Davies' horses were backed then didn't really perform very well, and that put me off, not completely, but enough concerns to re-evaluate the race. I am surprised at the opposition to Frodon, he is a grade 1 horse running in a handicap, at his favourite track. I probably wouldn't have backed him at the 4/1 he opened at, but 13/2 is an EW price, so happy to have him at that price, and hopefully he drifts more during the day. I may do a small reverse forecast on the two.

2.05C Stratagem at 8/1 has to be the bet here. Beat 'Solo' in his first French start and last time won by 24l without breaking sweat, with the disadvantage of having Mr David Maxwell on board, with Harry Cobden on board today that should in itself see a big improvement. The money for Anna Bunina, around 9/1 into around 11/4 has screwed the rest of the market up and 8/1 for the selection is massive. Pretty confident of him being in the first two.

4.05D Musicality, down in grade, back to softer ground, in form jockey, in form trainer, well worth an EW bet at 11/1 4 Places.

4.45N Snow Ocean. Bang in form and although slightly up in grade, think he should place in this, not really much in opposition, negative is Harry Bently as I think if he isn't going to win, quite often doesn't try for a place, but hopefully today he's up there towards the end and still has a chance in the last furlong. Currently 12/1 most places.

In the last at Cheltenham, Don Alvaro runs for the Hobbs stable who have a great record in bumpers, especially here. Not a bet as such, but if I have any winnings from the bet above, will have a small EW on it at 22/1 4 places PP (or whatever it is when I back it).

Good luck today
 
The 3.00G will be a good race to watch, and at the prices Grand Roi is the selection, you would be lucky to get 11/4 about a 400000G Gordon Elliot trained horse in any race, so am happy to be on it here.

3.20W The owners are expecting a good run from this, was with Mullins and was entered in a couple of races earlier this year, but got pulled due to the lockdown. They pulled him from Mullins earlier in the year as they felt he wasn't getting any attention, he has been chilling on one of the co-owner's farms all summer, and then moved to Henry De Bromhead who is really happy with him. He loves soft/heavy ground, did well in his PTP's, and was no surprise to see him fail in NHF races as he's always been seen as a chaser. Only doubts are fitness, but the stable seem to think he will be fine, and the distance, as he is thought of more of a 3 miler, but 2m4f on heavy ground won't be much different to 3m on good. My reading of the race is that there are only 3 in the race that genuinely like heavy ground, and although it's described as soft/heavy at the moment, if it turns heavy I think it will be between Derby, Getaday and possibly Encore Lui if her jumping holds up. Currently 10/1. Going to do a £1 RTrifecta on them 'just in case', should pay in excess of £800 if it comes in.

2.25G Ask Mary should be good enough to get a place here, 5/1 4 places

Don't think Sean Bowen has travelled to Liverpool for 2 rides on a Sunday without the exppectation of picking some prize money up, his two rides are 1.22 Joe Farrell and 3.42 Sir Ivan, both of which seem to have a chance of placing at least. 11/1 and 12/1 respectively.
 
Just one quick fancy I wanted to mention.

Paddys Motorbike each way at 8/1 in 12.50 at Chepstow.

R Johnson up for Sam Thomas. Previously trained by Nigel Twisten Davies who had him running in some very valuable handicaps on the flat. Distance and going will be no problem. I fully expect him to be in the first 3. Famous last words I know!

Edit; 3rd. Well beaten but all 3 in front pulled a mile clear. Place money at least and def one for the notebook!
 
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Well done on that one :)

In the bumper at 4.15 I think Sean is there for that race. Moylusa was trading at 10's on betfair earlier, now half that at 5.0.
Methusalar has an obvious change but both trainer and jockey aren't exactly banging the winners in, and similar comments for Pressure Sensitive, although the trainers strike rate and low numbers of runners in bumpers here over the past 5 seasons make you think he hasn't just gone for a day out. Think Mexico is the one for the forecast.
 
The beginners chase at Punchestown (3.25) looks a good race, with almost all the runners having a chance, and most having the potential to be high class horses.
Latest Exhibition and Longhouse POet are the 2 obvious ones, but not really any value in backing them. Run Wild Fred is the obvious EW horse, but again, 6/1 is a bit skinny, so I'll take a chance with Opposites Attract at 14/1.

The Juvenile Hurdle at Fakenham (2.02) looks a decent race, and is often used as a springboard for horses going to Aintree in December. As in the race above, the first 2 in the market are the 2 obvious ones, and most likely will fill the first 2 spots, however for the EW bet I'm going for Talking About You, which is currently 20/1 in a couple of places, 16's generally. She won one and placed in 3 of her previous 5 hurdle runs, although she was beaten 70l in her last race. However it was a slightly longer trip than she usually ran over, she looked like she needed a break, and has had a wind op since. If that works immediately (some do, some don't) then she has every chance of getting placed here, the wind op is what you are gambling on though, as if it hasn't had any effect then she will probably get beaten out of sight. She also likes to make the running and there doesn't seem to be any other obvious front runners, so thats in her favour too. I imagine she will trade a lot shorter than 20/1 in running with betfair.

Struggling to find anything else for the Lucky 15, so doing 3.10T Rose To Fame (12/1) and and 2.25P Magic Sea (12/1)

From a win perspective, Earth Leader in the 4.10 should be able to win this, with Schnabel for the forecast.
 

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