OK, been busy today, but couple from me
5.25C Red River 8/1
4.10N Strait Of Hormuz 12/1 (5 places)
4.55C Crosspark 16/1 4 places (unibet)
Good luck if you're having a bet
Crosspark was a bit of a kick in the teeth, beaten a nose, and my main bet of the day. Frank Spencer's ride on Strait of Hormuz was terrible, whoever thought dropping him out the back on a day when every winner was ridden from the front, or close up, was an idiot. I knew in the first furlong it wouldn't win. Red River was backed into 4/1 and got placed.
2.55N I would be surprised if Thunder Moon doesn't win this. Currently best priced 11/4, he has been very impressive in his two races to date. Wembley met trouble in a race he was beaten by Thunder Moon, and was finishing like a train, so would have him as the danger/FC selection.
3.10Y Roulston Scar, likes York, likes soft, his Nottingham win last time reads like it was a warm up for this race, already been backed from 14's into 8's, worth an EW bet 5 places most firms, 6 with Skybet, 7 with Hills. In the same race, the money for Tranchee looks significant, and that alone would mark him as the danger, he has the form to win too.
2.35Y Nicholas T is back over his best trip. and could win this on his best form. Not overly confident about it but 33/1 4 places is too big, I have it as around a 12/1 shot.
4.32C The Bay Birch is favourite and it's easy to see why, won this last year, 8lb lower today, and has had a prep race recently. Clearly has been set up for this race. However, I think better value is Marracudja, currently 33/1 4 places, if his form with Defi Du Seuil and Un De Sceaux – when he also bled from the nose - is real form, then he should win this. The ground was heavy then though, which could make the form unreliable, but he also had the 165-rated Janika well behind and the 153 Capeland miles back yet he's still on just 149. Both jockey and trainer are also in good form, and think it has an excellent chance of being placed. If I were a bookie, then I wouldn't want to lay it at much over 8/1, 33/1 is massive value.
In the Cesarewitch Vis A Vis might be worth a small EW bet, currently 33/1 7 places with PP or 8 places with Skybet.
Another couple of thoughts on Chepstow
1.40 don't like the odds on favourite here. The race he came second in hasn't worked out very well, and it's obvious he's priced up based on the connections rather than ability, would be happy to place lay it on Betfair at the current 1.15. Hector De Sivola was clearly expected to do better on his debut, when he was odds on and ran 5th. Will give him a go today.
2.12 Stimulating Song should be good enough to get at least a place here.
2.47 Ballyoptic could quite easily win this, if he can handle the weight. If I was playing on Betfair today, would place lay Secret Investor, don't think he will like this race at all.
3.57 Really decent looking race on paper, and not one I'll be having a bet in, but if pushed would pick Sir Psycho after his 5th in the Triumph.
Good luck today.
