Horse Racing & Tips Thread

cncas2123

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Here is the babble I honestly now have lost my train of thought though lol.



I live one county over from Ballydoyle and nothing has changed. No extra buzz about the one horse entry. Then again they are a stable who always keep their noses clean re:betting.
Getting a few hundred on a horse means nothing to boys operating in multi millions.

I fully understand what you are saying about the sole runner idea and having ready made excuses as a result. But I dont buy into it. As it never stopped O Brien before. Hes fired many darts before and been bullish about all of them then suddenly waxing lyrical about the winner after the fact.


High definition goes to the irish derby and Bolshoi ballet wont. So with that its definitely a different tactic. Keep them apart and hope to God they each win a derby.
St Marks Basilica and Van Dyck go to the Prix du Jockey Club in france Sunday and Kyprios goes straight to the queen Anne at ascot.
So they've split everything. Instead of firing a tonne at one classic. At least that's how I see it.



Entirely unrelated but this ban should be longer. The man in my opinion is a scumbag. He should have been banned for life back in '08 and all he got now is a 4 year suspension.
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With that record he should never be allowed near a horse again, absolutely disgusting.
 

colinsunderland

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Thanks for that Ken :)

Not massively confident about anything today, but I'll have an EW Lucky 15 on these

3.45E Waters Edge 28/1 4 places is 5lb better off with HMS President (5/1) for a 2l beating at Windsor last time. The rain will be an advantage, and while it's a longshot, shouldn't be that price in my view.

4.30E In the Oaks, I like Dubai Fountain EW 15/2 4 places, beat Zeyaadah last time out and don't see any real reason why it would be turned round today.

5.40E Count Otto 20/1 4 places has ran here 3 times, winning once and coming second twice.

2.35E Muraad 11/1 4 places. Not sure what happened last time out, but taht run was too bad to be true, so giving it another chance here :)

Good luck today all
 

colinsunderland

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The change in going might temper the confidence on BB in the Derby today. Someone who was there yesterday said the ground was really cutting up in the last couple of races. Think the ground was reflected in the fact only 2 favourites won all day, and think today might be good for EW backers too.

I think if something does beat BB it could be Hurricane Lane or John Leeper. John Leeper faces a pretty daunting task early in his career and don't think he's shown as much as Hurricane Lane, add the fact Charlie Appleby is in outsanding form at the moment, I'll be going EW on HL at 6/1 4 places with PP/BF. I'll probably do a small R Trifecta on the three Appleby runners too, not that I expect it to win, but just in case :). Gear Up might have a chance, but I can't back it considering Johnston's form at the moment

3.45E Lord Riddiford may do ok here, think he will like the track, has been running well on the AW in decent races, and is 13lb lower here. 12/1 6 places seems too big to me.

2.20W Mr Mafia 11/1. Putting this in mainly because it's Sean's only ride of the day, he's in good form at the moment and rides this track well. The horse showed signs of getting back to form last time out, when coming second over C&D beaten half a length, in a similar race.

4.00M Breath Of Joy seems a little overpriced at 15/2 here. Hollie Doyle seems to get on well with it and could see her getting a place at least in this race.

Good luck today everyone.
 

Kenji85

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Statement into 15/8 from 5/1 last night. I have a decent ish each way bet on at 5s but 15/8 is too short now imo. So very happy with the price I got.

As for the derby. I'm sticking with third Realm.
Won the derby trial at Lingfield while he may not have beaten much in Adayar but they pulled well clear contests here also.
14/1 eac way 4 places with 12 runners on PP.
 

cncas2123

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I am sticking with John Leeper in the Derby as my main bet, but will have a saver on MacSwiney @ 8/1 ew 5 places with Skybet, it has the group one form in the book and Jim Bolger knows how to win the race.
Bolshoi Ballet will probably win by a distance, but I just cant have him at 6-4.
Of the other racing today, Han Solo Berger ew 6 places in the dash is another bet for me, but not too much else to get excited about.

Good luck to all with their investments today.
 

geordiecolin

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Its great to see the crowds back at the races even if they are limited. Here are mine at Epsom today. Good luck with your bets

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

20. Duke Of Firenze
25/1
5th Jun EPSOM DOWNS 15:45 HANDICAP 0m 5f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 6 Places
4. Hurricane Lane
13/2
5th Jun EPSOM DOWNS 16:30 EVENT 1m 4f 6y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
5. Grantley
11/2
5th Jun DONCASTER 16:50 HANDICAP 1m 0f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
4. Desert Safari
5/1
5th Jun EPSOM DOWNS 17:50 HANDICAP 0m 6f 3y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds
 

colinsunderland

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2021-06-05 (1).png

Just going to leave this here before the winning distance is given, commentator said 5 lengths, I thought 4 :(
 

colinsunderland

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Typical saturday, picked the wrong Appleby horse, first and third in the tricast, and a length off a 300/1 winner, and to make that worse, the horse that knocked me out of that one was the 50/1 outsider lol
 

Kenji85

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Horse race betting wise I could stop a train at the minute. Doesnt stop me having a punt though :oops:
Luckily I'm doing ok in golf/rugby betting so I'm slightly ahead for the month as a result.


I've been looking at the Prix du Jockey Club(French Derby)today and think there is value to be had somewhere.
I think the best chance for a winner from UK or Ireland is not an OBrien horse but Megallan. The Gosdens have a better record in this race than O Brien too. The race is always been an afterthought for them due to its timing.

Megallans line of form from the Dante at York is quite impressive. he split Hurricane Lane(3rd in Epsom Derby yesterday) and High Definition(Irish Derby Fav)
The fact it's over a mile 2f is likely to suit as a result too.
Unfortunately after a quick look on oddschecker its seems the best value is with Wills Hills and Betfred I cant bet with either but if you can get on there its 5 places at 11/1 currently.
The French horse I fancy most is Makaloun. Trainer has an outstanding record here and connections have too. Also 11/1 5 places with the same two firms.

I've included them in a couple of multiples and done a rfc also. Haven't even looked at the rest of that card just the one bet there.
Not great fare at home today but theres one or two.

Screenshot_20210606-104531_Chrome.jpg


Adapt to Dan is a reserve but with a run 10/1 is a big each way price. Good form, nice draw and likes this distance/ground.
Call my bluff is in excellent form and the hope is a small rise in weights wont stop the improvement. Exchange rate is having a first run in 3 years so fitness is taken on trust but Willie Mullins is obv capable. If fit he is about 17lbs well in here so worth the each way poke.



GL all having a go.
 

Kenji85

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I want to apologize Colin. I logged on to say Prey for glory was a cracking each way shot to nothing between the drop in class and the recent decent efforts. So you can blame me if he bombs out lol.

Same can be said for Added Bonus 3.05 at Listowel. Not much else doing so I've done an ew double on those two and two ew singles.


Prey for Glory is 11/2 on PP
Added Bonus is 8/1 on PP (5places)

I'd be happy with two places but the double is around 60/1 for the win.


Gl all
 

colinsunderland

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4.35Y Illusionist 8/1 5 Places. Illusionist was outpaced at the end of a quite hot 6f handicap last time out, so should enjoy the step up in trip. The stable is in excellent form and I'll be surprised if he doesn't get a place at least. Only runner of the day for the stable too.

2.10S Dashing Dick 7/1. Second the last two runs, in similar races to this, can't see any reason why he won't be up there at the end of this race too. Jockey is in decent form, banging in the winners.

5.45A Falberto 10/1 should be good enough to place in this fairly poor race

7.25A Nordic Combined 7/1, again, a poor race that won't take much winning, think this should get placed.

One win bet, small double on:

1.35S Native Trail should win this at around evens.
3.45C Flip Mode 11/4

Good luck today
 

Kenji85

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Cork
Didn't do much the weekend as it seemed like every decent horse is waiting for Ascot to start.

Incidentally anybody with a PP or Bet365 a/c both have free €5 bets. PP is for the first race only but you can use it in alternative markets.
I did Sir Busker 12/1 without the favourite who is 4/9!!


Seems to heaps of money early for Dhabab in the 3.05. Bet 365 are 12/1 into 6/1. PP 10/1 into 9/2.

Looking forward to the sprint too at 3.40.
Winter Power looks a smart sprinter.
Couple him with the american sprinters in this and they may give Battash something to think about.


In the last race Saldier is a significant enough entry, felt like Listowel the last day was a prep race for this race.
He won well so the 4lb penalty is nothing to worry about imo. Getting short enough now though at 11/4.
 

colinsunderland

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my early thoughts on tomorrow

2.30 Palace Pier should win but at 2/5 isn't really backable. EW I like Lope Y Fernandez has form on the straight track and likes firm. Currently 14/1 at Betfair. Regal Reality at 18's is overpriced and I think will start around 12's. Has a chance of a place too.

5.00 Elysian Flame has a good chance of getting placed here, was badly hampered at the start last time out, then didn't get a clear run about 2f out. I think he lost more than the 7l he was beaten by, and if he manages a clear run tomorrow should do much better. Likes the trip, likes the going. Currently 14/1 6 places, another I think will be shorter tomorrow, more like 8/1.

5.35 Fox Tal 16/1 4 places, think this will be a lot closer than the betting suggests.

6.10 Saldier quite possibly will win this (sorry Ken, both liking the same horse, disaster :D ) but I'm not taking 5/2. Going to go EW on Gallota Bridge 22/1 5 places. Typical profile of a horse Dr Newland tends to do well with.

Good luck to everyone
 

geordiecolin

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It promises to be a great week of racing. I have played safe for tomorrow despite doing quite well recently. Although in the morning I may have another look and do a bet based on outsiders too.
Good luck all that are having a punt this week :)

Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way

12. The Acropolis
11/2
15th Jun ROYAL ASCOT 15:05 EVENT 0m 6f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
16. Winter Power
7/2
15th Jun ROYAL ASCOT 15:40 EVENT 0m 5f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
11. Poetic Flare
4/1
15th Jun ROYAL ASCOT 16:20 EVENT 0m 7f 213y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
18. Just Hubert
9/1
15th Jun ROYAL ASCOT 17:00 HANDICAP 2m 3f 210y - Each Way

Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 6 Places
13. Patrick Sarsfield
7/2
15th Jun ROYAL ASCOT 17:35 EVENT 1m 1f 212y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds
 

colinsunderland

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Frustrating day yesterday, a 2nd, 3rd and 5th where it was 4 places. The other one, Fox Tai looked like it might win and was backed from 20's into 15/2, then gave up at the end of the race :(

5.00A Revich 66/1 7 places. A bit torn about this one, was the 11/4f in his last race which was the same class as this, but only 10 runners, and blew the start at Chester, which is fatal. trainer isn't in good form, and has Hayley Turner on board, who I've never been a massive fan of. However, despite the negatives, I think the horse has decent form and should get in the first 7, and is overpriced at 66's. It basically comes down to if they have solved the problem of him fluffing the start. If he starts well, then he should get placed.

3.40A Champers Elysee 12/1 4 places. His best form is on good or firm ground, and on his pedigree, firm will suit him best. This is the first time he's ran on fast ground since his G1 success at Leopardstown in September last year, which was a better race than this. Be very surprised if he isn't placed, and think he should be half the current price.

2.30A Desert Dreamer 11/1 7 places with Skybet, 12/1 4 places most other firms. Hasn't done anything wrong so far, jockey and trainer in decent enough form, token selection in a race anything could win.

6.10A Miss Mulligan 40/1 5 places. think this might outrun it's odds, has been running ok, albeit on slower ground, and might sneak a place. Think it's twice the price it should be.

Probably put the 4 above in an EW lucky 15.

4.20A It's a shame theres only 7 runners as I like My Oberon at 25/1 here. Has the form to win this, but the price puts me off, if there was 3 places, would be a bet. If I'm winning by then might stick a few £'s on just in case.

5.05U Kingston King 22/1 5 places Hills. Started it's life in better races than this, running pretty poorly. Been running ok in PTP races more recently. Low weight with Sean on board (his only ride of the day) on better ground could see him do a bit better than shown so far, the race isn't exactly overflowing with talent, and has had recent wind surgery that could also help his cause. I have a fiver free bet on Hills, might stick it on him to win by over 3 lengths when I see the prices later, should be around 100/1 I think.

Good luck if you're having a bet today.
 
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