Horse Racing & Tips Thread

paul7388

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Paddy Power is actually offering 6/1 on the over 1 goal in all English Premiership matches today.

They had also done wrong odds earlier giving 12/1 Ryan Moore to have 3 or more winners and only 3/1 Ryan Moore to have 4 or more. Obviously got prices wrong way around lol as fixed now.

Ryan Moore (Curragh) To Ride 3 Or More Winners Today
12/1
23rd May Power Prices Auteuil Racing Specials - Sunday's Jockey Specials
13:15 Today

Power Price

Needless to say i bet the 3 winners and cashout is double my stake now before racing even starts.

Also took Erzindjan in 2.05 as think it will at least come in first four.
 
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Kenji85

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Haven't been through all of tomorrow's racing yet.


One that does catch my eye as an each way punt though is Dubai Station in 2.20 at haydock.
DeSousa rides for R Cowell both are in decent form the last two weeks. I'm prepared to forgive the horse his first run of the season and there was encouragement in the 3rd place last time out even though it was last of 3 it was on very heavy ground. The C&D win also helps.
Currently 18/1 and 20/1 most places. Shop around as some are going 4 places in a 12 runner race.
 

geordiecolin

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I think Iron Port should win very easily tonight in the 8.10W. Sean travelling there for a late night ride isn't usual, especially when you look at the card and see he could have had other rides tonight. It's not too far to travel, but still a couple of hundred mile round trip. Don't think the 10lb rise will stop him winning this, as it looks a worse race on paper than his last one.
Was 5/1 yesterday but the favourite being a non runner has meant his price has dropped to around 13/8, I'll probably do a couple of lengthen the odds bets to get a better price, over 5l 9/2 and over 10l 12/1, plus a few quid to win to cover the 2 LTO bets just in case he wins by a neck or something :)

Good luck today

@geordiecolin you ok mate? Not seen you post for a while, hope you're ok
All's sweetness and light thanks Col :)

There is so much racing today that I have had to wind my neck in with the betting!
This is my main bet today. Good luck all those having a punt :thumbsup:

Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way

14. Capotes Dream
5/1
29th May HAYDOCK 13:45 HANDICAP 0m 6f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
2. Hester Prynne
11/2
29th May BEVERLEY 14:00 EVENT 0m 5f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
7. Mo Celita
9/2
29th May HAYDOCK 16:05 HANDICAP 0m 6f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
16. Cousin Harry
5/1
29th May PUNCHESTOWN 16:10 2M 1/2F HCAP HURDLE 2m 100yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
10. Dont Tell Dj
6/1
29th May BEVERLEY 16:55 HANDICAP 0m 7f 96y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds
 

colinsunderland

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Not sure why Francky De Berlais is 16/1 but has to be worth an EW bet. Have backed it the last 3 times, won twice, taking away it's attempt at 3m, it's won or came second in it's last 6 races between 2m3f and 2m5f. Today is 2m4f. Would prefer softer ground but has ran well on good before. RP says this is a better race, I think it's around the same standard, just more runners, which could be a negative. However, 16/1 6 Places seems far too high for me.
Wouldn't go big, but I would say it's twice the price I would want to be laying.
 

colinsunderland

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Certainly not one for a big bet, but in the 8.10C The Aul Dubliner might run better than the 66/1 would suggest, in his first handicap. Ran ok last time despite being 7th, and might do ok here. 6 places with a few bookies.

7.50K Charlie Appleby is in really good form at the moment and think Renaissance Rose should win this quite easily. Typically I've been out and missed the earlier 4/1, but the current 9/4 is still decent. Will be doing some lengthen the odds bets too, 4l is 50/1 at the moment so probably have a few bets on the win, and up to that distance. Wasn't massively impressed with Zaajirah's win, so happy to take it on today. think the danger is more likely to be Prioritise at around 7/1.

Good luck if you are having a bet
 

cncas2123

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Anyone any fancies for the Derby?
I backed John Leeper EW with Skybet as they are giving 5 places, think it has a great chance and I was very impressed with its last run, he won easily after not settling for the first half of the race.
If he settles better on Saturday I think he will go close.
Below is my favourite Derby, probably as it was the first Derby I had a bet in and happened to back the winner, and it was never in doubt.
Whats everyone else's favourite Derby?

 

Kenji85

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I thought Third Realm was very impressive last time in the trial. My each way bet will go there most likely at 12/1.

Coronation Cup tomorrow Japan will be my pick but in honesty I think it's a poor renewal.
Oaks also doesnt have much to get excited about. Santa Barbara may stay A mile and Half and hose up having used the 1000 guineas as a prep run but I'll stick to a small bet on Ocean Road at 20/1.
Princess Elizabeth Stakes (2.35 Sat) see Statement run again. Obviously names forgiving her the guineas run for going off too fast. At this point I am prepared to follow her off a cliff:laugh:

I tried to do a small accum on all 4 of those. Japan 11/4
Ocean Road 20/1
Statement 5/1
Third Realm 12/1
It was paying something silly like 30k for a fiver. Bet365 limited me to 30cent:oops:






Unquestionably my favourite derby was 2002. The race itself wasnt exceptional but I loved High Chapparal and he did put away talented horses in Hawk Wing also from the O Brien stable and Naheef and Half Moon of Godolphin. Also Bandari of Mark Johnson yard. In those days many great races came down to Ballydoyle v Godolphin. In particular Galileo v Fantastic Light. Kinane v Dettori. O Brien v Bin Suroor. Good times!

I was at the curragh three weeks after to see him win the Irish derby at a canter, so impressive even if he was 1/3.
The horse never gets the credit it deserves imo. RP 2yo trophy winner, derby followed by Irish derby, also won two breeders cup turfs.
 

colinsunderland

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I'll probably not have a bet in the Derby, if I do it will be a lengthen the odds on the distance Bolshoi Ballet wins by. He is massively fancied by the yard and they are all in on him becoming the go to son of Galileo when it comes to breeding. For them to back up their claims he has to win this easily. There is a lot more at play here than winning a Derby, they are trying to keep a stranglehold on the breeding world. They are more invested in breeding than racing really these days, it will be a disaster for them if this gets beat, or even doesn't win easily.

If I was going to go against it then it would be Mac Swiney.
 

Kenji85

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I'll probably not have a bet in the Derby, if I do it will be a lengthen the odds on the distance Bolshoi Ballet wins by. He is massively fancied by the yard and they are all in on him becoming the go to son of Galileo when it comes to breeding. For them to back up their claims he has to win this easily. There is a lot more at play here than winning a Derby, they are trying to keep a stranglehold on the breeding world. They are more invested in breeding than racing really these days, it will be a disaster for them if this gets beat, or even doesn't win easily.

If I was going to go against it then it would be Mac Swiney.
Good points colin.
I don't agree it would be a disaster for them though. We are talking about an operation that churns out classic winners year after year. Multiple classics at that.

I agree it's very strong statement from them to have a sole runner. Ballydoyle/Coolmore has always been breeding and stud weighted in aims. They ran Camelot in a leger he was never likely to stay in hopes of winning a triple crown and not having to go the route of winning an arc/breeders cup to back up derby winning form. Australia was another one who they tried their best to place on specific races to keep stud value at a premium. We could probably name 25/30 horses O Brien has had that went this kind of route to maximise stud value.

I would be interested to see of the 84 classic winners (Uk&Ireland combined) OBrien has had how many of those winners trained on to 4 year old careers as opposed to retired at 3.

In the last 20 years there been no standout. That you are correct stretches back to Galileo and to a lesser extent Milan more so NH I know.

I'm waffling now, my point is with the Coolmore stud having good stallions standing in NZ,Aus,USA and obviously here in Ireland too. No one classic contender losing is a disaster. They are already too mob handed!
 

colinsunderland

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Good points colin.
I don't agree it would be a disaster for them though. We are talking about an operation that churns out classic winners year after year. Multiple classics at that.

I agree it's very strong statement from them to have a sole runner. Ballydoyle/Coolmore has always been breeding and stud weighted in aims. They ran Camelot in a leger he was never likely to stay in hopes of winning a triple crown and not having to go the route of winning an arc/breeders cup to back up derby winning form. Australia was another one who they tried their best to place on specific races to keep stud value at a premium. We could probably name 25/30 horses O Brien has had that went this kind of route to maximise stud value.

I would be interested to see of the 84 classic winners (Uk&Ireland combined) OBrien has had how many of those winners trained on to 4 year old careers as opposed to retired at 3.

In the last 20 years there been no standout. That you are correct stretches back to Galileo and to a lesser extent Milan more so NH I know.

I'm waffling now, my point is with the Coolmore stud having good stallions standing in NZ,Aus,USA and obviously here in Ireland too. No one classic contender losing is a disaster. They are already too mob handed!
I would normally agree, except in this case they have been touting him around breeding circles as the best horse since Galileo for a while, and need him to win this to back those statements up.
Theres also a feeling in Ireland not too read too much into the fact it's the only runner in the race for him. There have been a lot of 'wrong' horses won big races for them recently, and the general feeling is that they don't want him being beaten by a stablemate. He gets beat by another horse they don't train, then the spin will be that he was a bit off and they obviously don't know how other stables runners have trained on, gets beat by a stablemate, they can't say that, not without basically admitting that they don't know their horses as well as they say they do.

Good luck with your bet though :)
 

Kenji85

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I had a big long post written out but it's all irrelevant really.

We will just agree to disagree.

For anyone reading. I am not saying Bolshoi Ballet will not win the derby. He could hack up by 20 for all I know.
 

colinsunderland

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I had a big long post written out but it's all irrelevant really.

We will just agree to disagree.

For anyone reading. I am not saying Bolshoi Ballet will not win the derby. He could hack up by 20 for all I know.
If you still have it, post it please, I like reading them, they quite often challenge my thinking of things :)
FWIW I don't think his form stands up to any great scrutiny, it's more what the stable have to lose if he doesn't win thats affecting my reading of the race, and that taking that into account, I don't think theres value elsewhere, but I also wouldn't be backing it close to the current price. If it was 3/1 I would probably have a go, but not at the likely odds on on the day.
 

Kenji85

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Here is the babble I honestly now have lost my train of thought though lol.



I live one county over from Ballydoyle and nothing has changed. No extra buzz about the one horse entry. Then again they are a stable who always keep their noses clean re:betting.
Getting a few hundred on a horse means nothing to boys operating in multi millions.

I fully understand what you are saying about the sole runner idea and having ready made excuses as a result. But I dont buy into it. As it never stopped O Brien before. Hes fired many darts before and been bullish about all of them then suddenly waxing lyrical about the winner after the fact.


High definition goes to the irish derby and Bolshoi ballet wont. So with that its definitely a different tactic. Keep them apart and hope to God they each win a derby.
St Marks Basilica and Van Dyck go to the Prix du Jockey Club in france Sunday and Kyprios goes straight to the queen Anne at ascot.
So they've split everything. Instead of firing a tonne at one classic. At least that's how I see it.



Entirely unrelated but this ban should be longer. The man in my opinion is a scumbag. He should have been banned for life back in '08 and all he got now is a 4 year suspension.
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