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High Variance - Understanding it - Loving it.

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by 3Dice, Sep 26, 2007.

    Sep 26, 2007
  1. 3Dice

    3Dice I-Gaming Industry Representative

    Hi All,

    We've seen a lot of people from cm join up over the last few days, and with
    our (to few) slot machines being of the 'high to very high' variance type, I
    think this is a good time to try and shed some light on to the nature of
    machines like this, and how you, as a player can make sure to get what you
    expect out of it.

    First off, a tiny introduction explaining some of the terminology seems
    appropriate. In statistics in general, two numbers are considered the most
    important to describe a 'sample' or collection of for example winamounts.
    Those two numbers are the average and the variance.

    These two numbers give a good representation of any collection of numbers,
    and are therefor also commonly used to describe how casino games pay. Now
    how is this important to the player? Well, as far as average goes .. that's
    fairly obvious. The average payout will determine if on the long term you will
    win or loose. Unfortunately - there's some bad news here .. all casino games
    are designed to have an average below 100% .. the closer to 100% the
    better for the player, and if you find one that's above 100%, let me know !

    So the first number will give you the average on the long term, and the
    second number, the variance, will tell you how long that term is. In
    mathematical terms, the variance tells you how far, on average, each of the
    results is from the long term payout percentage. So, if we have a machine
    with a variance of zero, that means that there is no difference between a
    single spin and the average .. so that's a machine that pays out e.g. 0.95 for
    every 1 you put in .. not very exciting.

    Worded from a player point of view .. high variance means that you can still
    be ahead on the casino even after many spins. Eventually everyone will get to
    the average, but the higher the variance, the longer this can take..

    Now, there's more to it if you're into multiline video slots. Especially the free
    spin ones. It is important to know that these machines have a large part of
    their payout percentage in the feature. So a session that does not hit the
    feature will never be a 'happy' one ..

    The good news however is, that it is very easy to calculate the odds on this,
    and based on that you can choose a betsize that reflects the expectations
    you have. There's only a tiny little bit of math involved, so please bear with
    me :)

    As an example, we will use a feature that on average hits 1 in 160 spins. (this
    is very close to our supersuits and tut slots). For every spin you have a
    chance of 1/160 to hit the feature, so you have 159/160 to not hit the

    Furthermore, we will start with a $100 bankroll, and examine how our choice
    of betsize influences the chances of not hitting the feature..

    In the first sample, we'll bet $1 ... so we can be sure of 100 spins .. the odds
    of not hitting the feature in 100 spins are given by

    (159/160) to the power of 100 = (159/160)^100 = 0.5342 = 53.42%

    So, with 100 spins .. we have 53% chance of not hitting the feature .. if
    however we lower our betsize to 1/4th ($.25) and get in 400 spins ..

    (159/160) to the power of 400 = (159/160)^400 = 0.0814 = 8.14%

    The sharp reader now notices that 8.14% is not 53.42%/4 .. betting $1 will
    make on average 1 in 2 sessions 'loosing sessions', whereas with a bet of $0.5
    only 1 in 12.2 sessions (on average) will be one not hitting the feature. With
    a high part of the payout in freespins, you want to make sure not to set
    yourself up with to little spins ..

    Some players are fine with one in two sessions being really low and the other
    one really good, others prefer to always get more play for their money. As a
    player you can never increase the actual variance of a machine, but all you
    need to do to lower it is make sure you get more spins for the same budget,
    and thus play lower bets ..

    It is up to all of you to decide what your personal preference is, and I just
    hope that this post clarifies things a bit for those that did not yet have a
    clear view on variance.

    In closing, I'll share the exact nrs of the feature frequencies for 3Dice so that
    you can do the maths and know what your odds are ..

    Tut-Ankh-Amun : 1 in 158
    SuperSuits : 1 in 155
    Happy Valley : 1 in 135
    Squirrel Pike : 1 in 48

    As a last word of good advice to new 3dice players, join and play in the
    tournaments, they are free, last long, allow all games, very exciting, and the
    perfect way to get a good a 'feel' about the games. (oh and they pay real
    money ;) )

    Good Luck everyone,

    Last edited: Sep 26, 2007
    44 people like this.
  2. Sep 27, 2007
  3. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Bexhill on sea, England
    Hmmm.. I'm not sure how some will take such a post coming from a casino manager...?
    But I think it's great & really hits the nail on the head!

    Thanks for the feature stats too! :thumbsup:

    However, I must pick you up on one thing which you of all people should know...
    It's LOSE for Christs sake, LOSE, not LOOSE!!!!

    6 people like this.
  4. Sep 27, 2007
  5. 3Dice

    3Dice I-Gaming Industry Representative

    We need our sleep at night ..


    2 people like this.
  6. Sep 27, 2007
  7. tim5ny

    tim5ny Quit Gambling

    At least he's putting the numbers out there! Try and get that kinda info from RTG or MG. The big boys will only give out a vague payout percentage of overall slots usually. Although their slots are way too tight for my taste, I think 3Dice is going to go a long way in this business because of Enzo's leadership. The people really like him.
    On a personal note.. I closed my account after many beatings on the slots and wont go back until there is a variety to choose from. When I play, I tend to have long sessions, and take for instance Microgaming slots......... when a machine goes bad for many spins, then you have a choice of maybe a hundred others to go to, and sometimes the very next machine is hot as a firecracker! You don't have this luxury yet at 3Dice, and I can't survive very long on their Super-High variance slots without being able to run away from the machine.
    4 people like this.
  8. Sep 27, 2007
  9. Mousey

    Mousey Ueber Meister Mouse

    Pencil Pusher
    Thanks Enzo!!


    Hiya Tim! How's it going?!

  10. Sep 27, 2007
  11. tim5ny

    tim5ny Quit Gambling

    Hi Mousey!

    I was going to say something about trying to pick you up when you're playing VP at the casino bar, but I'll refrain. I'm good! I've been enjoying your posts!
    1 person likes this.
  12. Sep 27, 2007
  13. cyprean

    cyprean Banned User PABnononaccred

    What are the slots house edge for slots at 3Dice, 10%, 5%? I could not find audited figures.
  14. Sep 27, 2007
  15. tim5ny

    tim5ny Quit Gambling

    Yeah!.. they'll take your house too! :eek2:

    Sorry Enzo! I couldn't resist!
  16. Sep 27, 2007
  17. Rusty

    Rusty Banned User - repetitive flaming

    Manchester UK
    :lolup::lolup::lolup::lolup::lolup: KK

    ...and stop with the exclamation marks already!!!!!!!!!!
    Actually I don't know how anyone could take exception to Enzo's post it is simply factual and informative, even helpful.
    You can't blame him for a little plug and it is far from spam.
  18. Sep 27, 2007
  19. winbig

    winbig Keep winning this amount.


    So true. Now if only more casino rep's would take a lesson from Enzo, the world would be a better place!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  20. Sep 27, 2007
  21. Rettahs

    Rettahs Dormant account

    Saint Louis
    Heck, I just wish the max bets per spin were higher. I tend to bet progressively and I always end up hitting the top end too soon there at 3dice. Granted I have won a few tournaments so I can't complain but with my playing style these days I like to go all out to end a session. Oh and the three reelers need some coin variation as well. All in all I have a great time playing in the tournaments :).
  22. Sep 27, 2007
  23. winbig

    winbig Keep winning this amount.

    Now there's an idea. How about making it so the coin sizes can be adjusted during tournament play? I think that would definitely add more to the skill factor needed to win instead of just max bets until you're broke :p
  24. Sep 27, 2007
  25. Zoozie

    Zoozie Ueber Meister CAG PABnonaccred

    Software Developer
    You can not change the probability for hitting the feature of course. But for a fixed bet size if you instead play few liners but with higher line bet, then this will result in a higher variance slot.

    Very good question. I hope 3D will publish the payout%s for all games that can also be seen from within the game (help page etc.) - just like WagerWorks. The 3Dice slots are ~96% payout. And with the highest VIP comp rate, it will give you 2% more, effectively bringing it to 98%.
  26. Sep 27, 2007
  27. lojo

    lojo Banned User - repetitive violations of <a href="ht

    Great info, thanks, Enzo.

    I've often wondered how this effects features... of course a scatter win that pays x*bet for 3, 4, 5 scatters wouldn't be affected, but if I'm betting .20 per line on five lines, the hits will still be fewer and farther between inside the freespin feature but still worth more... I can't seem to wrap my head around whether I need to use 5* bankroll to achieve the same average as 20 lines @ .01... any help? (Of course that would appear to defeat the purpose, but if it didn't hit in the first +/-150 spins it still might in the next and my point of 'diminishing returns' shouldn't be until my 375th spin.. I think :))

    From February...
    In another post he went on to explain that for their landbased operations auditing, etc. is all part of the licensing and regulations and that it will take some time to make sure it is done properly with the online casino.
  28. Sep 27, 2007
  29. winbig

    winbig Keep winning this amount.

    I had an interesting run during a tourney last night on Squirrel pike:

    Spins: 56

    Losses: 53


    (2) 2 scatters that paid my bet back ($4.50)
    (1) $5 win from 3oak

  30. Sep 27, 2007
  31. peteyweestro

    peteyweestro Senior Member

    medical biller
    So Cal...Antelope Valley
    n a $50 tourny yesterday i hit the feature twice on the super suits and got a little over $90 each time and on happy valley i was just starting when i hit for $230 then switched to squirrel and hit there for like $60 but still ended up blowing my wad ,the highest i got was 5th place in the standings though
  32. Sep 30, 2007
  33. nihtolouloudo

    nihtolouloudo Newbie member PABnononaccred


    THANK YOU SO MUCH for that KasinoKing :thumbsup:

    I hope he'll finally learn it! And some others too. It always drive me crazy to see mistakes like this. There are far too many players (also amazing many native speakers) that make the same mistake over and over again. Someone had to tell them!

    nihtolouloudo :D
  34. Sep 30, 2007
  35. Trollet

    Trollet Meister Member

    Im guilty!

    (((HUGS))) Trollet
  36. Sep 30, 2007
  37. tim5ny

    tim5ny Quit Gambling

    How can YOU be guilty?? You NEVER loose!:eek:

    .............. er...I mean Lose!
    1 person likes this.
  38. Oct 1, 2007
  39. Trollet

    Trollet Meister Member

    Oh! :confused:
    We are not talking about spelling now or?

    Ok, im lost now :D

    (((HUGS))) Trollet

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