High Variance - Understanding it - Loving it.

3Dice

I-Gaming Industry Representative
Joined
Feb 14, 2007
Location
-
Hi All,

We've seen a lot of people from cm join up over the last few days, and with
our (to few) slot machines being of the 'high to very high' variance type, I
think this is a good time to try and shed some light on to the nature of
machines like this, and how you, as a player can make sure to get what you
expect out of it.

First off, a tiny introduction explaining some of the terminology seems
appropriate. In statistics in general, two numbers are considered the most
important to describe a 'sample' or collection of for example winamounts.
Those two numbers are the average and the variance.

These two numbers give a good representation of any collection of numbers,
and are therefor also commonly used to describe how casino games pay. Now
how is this important to the player? Well, as far as average goes .. that's
fairly obvious. The average payout will determine if on the long term you will
win or loose. Unfortunately - there's some bad news here .. all casino games
are designed to have an average below 100% .. the closer to 100% the
better for the player, and if you find one that's above 100%, let me know !

So the first number will give you the average on the long term, and the
second number, the variance, will tell you how long that term is. In
mathematical terms, the variance tells you how far, on average, each of the
results is from the long term payout percentage. So, if we have a machine
with a variance of zero, that means that there is no difference between a
single spin and the average .. so that's a machine that pays out e.g. 0.95 for
every 1 you put in .. not very exciting.

Worded from a player point of view .. high variance means that you can still
be ahead on the casino even after many spins. Eventually everyone will get to
the average, but the higher the variance, the longer this can take..

Now, there's more to it if you're into multiline video slots. Especially the free
spin ones. It is important to know that these machines have a large part of
their payout percentage in the feature. So a session that does not hit the
feature will never be a 'happy' one ..

The good news however is, that it is very easy to calculate the odds on this,
and based on that you can choose a betsize that reflects the expectations
you have. There's only a tiny little bit of math involved, so please bear with
me :)

As an example, we will use a feature that on average hits 1 in 160 spins. (this
is very close to our supersuits and tut slots). For every spin you have a
chance of 1/160 to hit the feature, so you have 159/160 to not hit the
feature.

Furthermore, we will start with a $100 bankroll, and examine how our choice
of betsize influences the chances of not hitting the feature..

In the first sample, we'll bet $1 ... so we can be sure of 100 spins .. the odds
of not hitting the feature in 100 spins are given by

(159/160) to the power of 100 = (159/160)^100 = 0.5342 = 53.42%

So, with 100 spins .. we have 53% chance of not hitting the feature .. if
however we lower our betsize to 1/4th ($.25) and get in 400 spins ..

(159/160) to the power of 400 = (159/160)^400 = 0.0814 = 8.14%

The sharp reader now notices that 8.14% is not 53.42%/4 .. betting $1 will
make on average 1 in 2 sessions 'loosing sessions', whereas with a bet of $0.5
only 1 in 12.2 sessions (on average) will be one not hitting the feature. With
a high part of the payout in freespins, you want to make sure not to set
yourself up with to little spins ..

Some players are fine with one in two sessions being really low and the other
one really good, others prefer to always get more play for their money. As a
player you can never increase the actual variance of a machine, but all you
need to do to lower it is make sure you get more spins for the same budget,
and thus play lower bets ..

It is up to all of you to decide what your personal preference is, and I just
hope that this post clarifies things a bit for those that did not yet have a
clear view on variance.

In closing, I'll share the exact nrs of the feature frequencies for 3Dice so that
you can do the maths and know what your odds are ..

Tut-Ankh-Amun : 1 in 158
SuperSuits : 1 in 155
Happy Valley : 1 in 135
Squirrel Pike : 1 in 48

As a last word of good advice to new 3dice players, join and play in the
tournaments, they are free, last long, allow all games, very exciting, and the
perfect way to get a good a 'feel' about the games. (oh and they pay real
money ;) )

Good Luck everyone,

Enzo.
 
Last edited:

KasinoKing

WebMeister & Slotaholic..
webmeister
PABnonaccred
CAG
MM
Joined
Aug 25, 2004
Location
Bexhill on sea, England
Hmmm.. I'm not sure how some will take such a post coming from a casino manager...?
But I think it's great & really hits the nail on the head!

Thanks for the feature stats too! :thumbsup:

However, I must pick you up on one thing which you of all people should know...
The average payout will determine if on the long term you will win or loose.
It's LOSE for Christs sake, LOSE, not LOOSE!!!!

:D
 

tim5ny

Non-Gambler
Joined
Jun 8, 2003
At least he's putting the numbers out there! Try and get that kinda info from RTG or MG. The big boys will only give out a vague payout percentage of overall slots usually. Although their slots are way too tight for my taste, I think 3Dice is going to go a long way in this business because of Enzo's leadership. The people really like him.
On a personal note.. I closed my account after many beatings on the slots and wont go back until there is a variety to choose from. When I play, I tend to have long sessions, and take for instance Microgaming slots......... when a machine goes bad for many spins, then you have a choice of maybe a hundred others to go to, and sometimes the very next machine is hot as a firecracker! You don't have this luxury yet at 3Dice, and I can't survive very long on their Super-High variance slots without being able to run away from the machine.
 

Mousey

Ueber Meister Mouse
Joined
Sep 12, 2004
Location
Up$hitCreek
Thanks Enzo!!

[derail

Hiya Tim! How's it going?!

[/derail
 

tim5ny

Non-Gambler
Joined
Jun 8, 2003
Thanks Enzo!!

[derail

Hiya Tim! How's it going?!

[/derail

Hi Mousey!

I was going to say something about trying to pick you up when you're playing VP at the casino bar, but I'll refrain. I'm good! I've been enjoying your posts!
 

Rusty

Banned User - repetitive flaming
Joined
Jul 23, 2006
Location
Manchester UK
Hmmm.. I'm not sure how some will take such a post coming from a casino manager...?
But I think it's great & really hits the nail on the head!

Thanks for the feature stats too! :thumbsup:

However, I must pick you up on one thing which you of all people should know...

It's LOSE for Christs sake, LOSE, not LOOSE!!!!

:D

:lolup::lolup::lolup::lolup::lolup: KK

...and stop with the exclamation marks already!!!!!!!!!!
;)
Actually I don't know how anyone could take exception to Enzo's post it is simply factual and informative, even helpful.
You can't blame him for a little plug and it is far from spam.
 

winbig

Keep winning this amount.
Joined
Mar 10, 2005
Location
Pennsylvania
Actually I don't know how anyone could take exception to Enzo's post it is simply factual and informative, even helpful.
You can't blame him for a little plug and it is far from spam.


So true. Now if only more casino rep's would take a lesson from Enzo, the world would be a better place!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


:p
 

Rettahs

Dormant account
Joined
Aug 1, 2006
Location
Saint Louis
Heck, I just wish the max bets per spin were higher. I tend to bet progressively and I always end up hitting the top end too soon there at 3dice. Granted I have won a few tournaments so I can't complain but with my playing style these days I like to go all out to end a session. Oh and the three reelers need some coin variation as well. All in all I have a great time playing in the tournaments :).
 

winbig

Keep winning this amount.
Joined
Mar 10, 2005
Location
Pennsylvania
Heck, I just wish the max bets per spin were higher. I tend to bet progressively and I always end up hitting the top end too soon there at 3dice. Granted I have won a few tournaments so I can't complain but with my playing style these days I like to go all out to end a session. Oh and the three reelers need some coin variation as well. All in all I have a great time playing in the tournaments :).

Now there's an idea. How about making it so the coin sizes can be adjusted during tournament play? I think that would definitely add more to the skill factor needed to win instead of just max bets until you're broke :p
 

Zoozie

Ueber Meister
PABnonaccred
CAG
Joined
Dec 1, 2005
Location
Denmark
Some players are fine with one in two sessions being really low and the other
one really good, others prefer to always get more play for their money. As a
player you can never increase the actual variance of a machine, but all you
need to do to lower it is make sure you get more spins for the same budget,
and thus play lower bets ..

You can not change the probability for hitting the feature of course. But for a fixed bet size if you instead play few liners but with higher line bet, then this will result in a higher variance slot.


What are the slots house edge for slots at 3Dice, 10%, 5%? I could not find audited figures.

Very good question. I hope 3D will publish the payout%s for all games that can also be seen from within the game (help page etc.) - just like WagerWorks. The 3Dice slots are ~96% payout. And with the highest VIP comp rate, it will give you 2% more, effectively bringing it to 98%.
 

lojo

Banned User - repetitive violations of <a href="ht
Joined
Jan 18, 2007
Location
USA
Great info, thanks, Enzo.



You can not change the probability for hitting the feature of course. But for a fixed bet size if you instead play few liners but with higher line bet, then this will result in a higher variance slot.

I've often wondered how this effects features... of course a scatter win that pays x*bet for 3, 4, 5 scatters wouldn't be affected, but if I'm betting .20 per line on five lines, the hits will still be fewer and farther between inside the freespin feature but still worth more... I can't seem to wrap my head around whether I need to use 5* bankroll to achieve the same average as 20 lines @ .01... any help? (Of course that would appear to defeat the purpose, but if it didn't hit in the first +/-150 spins it still might in the next and my point of 'diminishing returns' shouldn't be until my 375th spin.. I think :))


Very good question. I hope 3D will publish the payout%s for all games that can also be seen from within the game (help page etc.) - just like WagerWorks. The 3Dice slots are ~96% payout. And with the highest VIP comp rate, it will give you 2% more, effectively bringing it to 98%.

From February...
If I were to make any suggestion to them it would be to establish a relationship with an auditing firm, "All software has met strict criteria to guarantee fairness for our users..." just isn't enough for me. I am impressed with their transparency and their rep's proactive approach to this thread.

Thank you lojo, we do have this on our planning, it is however not an overnight venture and needs to be handled with the propper attention and care.
In another post he went on to explain that for their landbased operations auditing, etc. is all part of the licensing and regulations and that it will take some time to make sure it is done properly with the online casino.
 

winbig

Keep winning this amount.
Joined
Mar 10, 2005
Location
Pennsylvania
I had an interesting run during a tourney last night on Squirrel pike:

Spins: 56

Losses: 53

Wins:

(2) 2 scatters that paid my bet back ($4.50)
(1) $5 win from 3oak

:eek:
 

peteyweestro

Dormant Account
Joined
Jun 29, 2007
Location
So Cal...Antelope Valley
n a $50 tourny yesterday i hit the feature twice on the super suits and got a little over $90 each time and on happy valley i was just starting when i hit for $230 then switched to squirrel and hit there for like $60 but still ended up blowing my wad ,the highest i got was 5th place in the standings though
 

nihtolouloudo

Dormant Account
PABnononaccred
Joined
Jul 12, 2007
Location
Germany
However, I must pick you up on one thing which you of all people should know...

It's LOSE for Christs sake, LOSE, not LOOSE!!!!

:D


THANK YOU SO MUCH for that KasinoKing :thumbsup:

I hope he'll finally learn it! And some others too. It always drive me crazy to see mistakes like this. There are far too many players (also amazing many native speakers) that make the same mistake over and over again. Someone had to tell them!

nihtolouloudo :D
 

Trollet

Meister Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2005
Location
Sweden
THANK YOU SO MUCH for that KasinoKing :thumbsup:

I hope he'll finally learn it! And some others too. It always drive me crazy to see mistakes like this. There are far too many players (also amazing many native speakers) that make the same mistake over and over again. Someone had to tell them!

Im guilty!

(((HUGS))) Trollet
 

lojo

Banned User - repetitive violations of <a href="ht
Joined
Jan 18, 2007
Location
USA
Thanks for bumping this thread Trollet, we're starting to see some posts from people who should know the variance of 3Dice slots :)

lose and loose are pet peaves of many posters here:D (dang
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
)
 

bernynhel

Dormant account
PABnoaccred
PABnononaccred
Joined
Jan 30, 2006
Location
Los Angeles
Interesting info. I just change slots if I dont hit a feature in a "little" bit. Just because the chances of hitting a feature is 1/150, I can usually hit a feature in under 10 spins if I keep moving till I find a little "riper" slot. Usually by the 3rd or 4th slotif no sooner.
 
Last edited:

happygobrokey

Dormant account
Joined
Jul 24, 2006
Location
canada
or if you stayed on the same one you could probably hit it in under 40 spins as well. you've bought 40 tickets to a 1/150 either way, so you stand a decent chance of hitting it with one of those forty whether you bounce around or stick to one game. perceptively, though, it's nicer to bounce around, because pouring money into one slot with seemingly no luck is discouraging.

you guys really love your slots eh? i feel a new poll coming on (this time casino related)...

:thumbsup:
 

tim5ny

Non-Gambler
Joined
Jun 8, 2003
Interesting info. I just change slots if I dont hit a feature in a "little" bit. Just because the chances of hitting a feature is 1/150, I can usually hit a feature in under 10 spins if I keep moving till I find a little "riper" slot. Usually by the 3rd or 4th slotif no sooner.

You cant' move to the next machine too much at 3Dice yet! There's only 4 slots!
 
Top