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Formula EV casino bonus?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by Mozaik, Sep 3, 2013.

    Sep 3, 2013
  1. Mozaik

    Mozaik Experienced Member webby

    Hi guys,

    I'm interested in knowing the formula to determine whether a deposit bonus would be a good option or not. I know which factors play a role like wagering requirements, pay out percentage of the game and bonus percentage. My currenty play isn't really focussed on any deposit bonuses most of the time.

    I like to feel free and not be tied up by the wagering requirements or terms and conditions, before I can cash out. In my opinion a lot of bonuses have too many restrictions as well. If I take a bonus it's only when I make a small deposit and when the wagering requirements are decent enough 30x bonus or lower. Like for instance 200% 32Red deposit bonus of €25. I deposit €25, I'll get €50 from 32Red which means I'll have €75 to play with.

    €50 x €30 WR = €1500 wagering. If I lose I won't even be bothered with it, and if I can catch a nice win it would be great considering the low deposit/risk. There are countless times when I deposit hundreds of euros but I never take a bonus then.

    How bigger the deposit/bonus gets, the more I need to wager and this usually puts me of taking a bonus. I look at it like a huge mountain to climb.

    If any bonus experts could maybe shed their light on the formula to calculate whether a bonus is +EV, that would be great!
  2. Sep 3, 2013
  3. hoff1985

    hoff1985 Meister Member mm1

    IT Stuff :)
    It depends... These days i don't do really high bets anymore. So most of my bets are between 0.90 and 1.20 per Spin. I pretty much never deposit more than 25-50$, otherwise it will be so damn hard to make it through wagering. Depending on the casino with a 50-100% bonus i have wagering reqs between 500 and 2000$ most of the time... And if i have a lucky day, i'll survive. Stopped doing higher deposits, because it always sucked me dry. You can have 400-500$ in your account, when you still have to wager 3000$ it will be tough :)

    I think the best i survived was at Rival once. Had over 6000$ to wager, and made it through with no bets highter than 2-3$.

    1 person likes this.
  4. Sep 4, 2013
  5. Igor82

    Igor82 Senior Member

    The formula you are asking for is fairly easy, however from the rest of your text it does not seem you are after understanding if a bonus amount is +EV or -EV, it seems more as if you are bothered your funds are tied with the WR of a bonus and whether that total WR is designed to take your deposit and the bonus together?

    If that's the case then just looking at bonus EV is not sufficient in itself.
    1 person likes this.
  6. Sep 4, 2013
  7. Mozaik

    Mozaik Experienced Member webby

    That's one of the reasons I usually only take a bonus with small deposits. Let's say if I take a €200 bonus with 30x wagering, it would mean having to wager €6K before being able to withdraw. IMO that's a lot, and my bankroll probably won't survive it considering I usually play 1.20-2.10 per spin when I have €250 or more to play with.
  8. Sep 4, 2013
  9. Mozaik

    Mozaik Experienced Member webby

    It really depends on the situation....and I am interested in knowing how some real bonus hunters apply their maths when selecting a bonus. Usually I prefer taking a bonus when I deposit small and can profit from a good over with decent wagering requirements. But in some occasions, like when I for instance won big and cashed out let's say €1200 profit. I don't really mind taking a 100% deposit bonus when depositing €150 euros of 'profit'. It gives me more playtime and the opportunity to play larger bets than I usually do with the hope of really hitting it big.
  10. Sep 4, 2013
  11. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Bexhill on sea, England
    I don't like to self-promote my websites on this forum, but I do have a bonus rating system on them which gives players an approximate guide as to how +EV (or in most cases, how -EV) the bonuses are at all the casinos I list.
    The rating is worked out from the amount of WR and whether the bonuses are Cashable or Phantom, and is based on achieving an RTP of 95% during your WR, which is about the average for most slot games.

    Any bonus with a rating of more than 5.0 is theoretically +EV, and there are only 3 casinos which exceed this: Win-A-Day, Slotland and Star Games. However, it must be noted that I don't know if the RTP of their games is 95%, more, or less than that.
    There are a LOT of bonuses between 4.0 and 5.0 (mostly MGs, Rivals, WMS and IGT) which give you a reasonable chance of making a profit if you have a little bit of good luck.
    Between 3.0 and 4.0 you will find more MGs and Rivals, with the addition of some NetEnts, Playtechs, a couple of RTGs and a few minor brands - here you need to be a bit more lucky to make a profitable cash-out.
    Anything below 3.0 brings you into the "play and pray" territory, where you would need a LOT of luck to make a cash-out. Here you will find a lot of high % bonuses which can give you a lot more play-time for your money, but WRs so steep you are pretty unlikely to be able to conquer them :(

    Personally I like taking bonuses for 3 main reasons:
    1) More play-time for my money.
    2) The challenge of trying to meet the WR and still make a profit.
    3) The fact that playing with a bonus gives a definitive stopping and cashing-out point!

    3 people like this.
  12. Sep 4, 2013
  13. Cleveland

    Cleveland Meister Member

    Professional problem solver
    I love your website....just for the record. :D
    1 person likes this.
  14. Sep 4, 2013
  15. Nifty29

    Nifty29 Dormant account

    Turn right, then right. then right again
    Phew! I thought you were about to break your own rule KK and promote your own website.

    Next you'll be putting heaps of links in your siggy!

    The only way to get the absolute most value out of a bonus is to bet as big as you're allowed until you meet WR (although max cashouts change things a bit).

    The "bet big, hit big, then grind" is not actually the best way. You may have more cashouts, but their overall value will likely be less.
    1 person likes this.
  16. Sep 4, 2013
  17. dionysus

    dionysus can turn wine into water CAG MM

    I'm a Canucklehead
    lol, sorry, but ya made me laugh pop out my nose
  18. May 10, 2016
  19. APEppink

    APEppink Newbie member

    Retired Marine Engineer
    Lake Los Angeles, CA, USA 935913035

    "The "bet big, hit big, then grind" is not actually the best way. You may have more cashouts, but their overall value will likely be less.[/QUOTE]"

    Dunno why that shouldn't be correct. In a Bovada situation where:

    Deposit - D = $250
    Bonus (100%) = $250
    Wage Rate - 40X
    Average bet - b(avg), for one initial $500 bet. Lose, you're done. Win, continue to bang away at minimum bet so as to have a manageable 3*SD(N) <= $500. Thus -
    (15 000*($1) + 1*$500) = $20k, so there are 15 001 bets, total.
    b(avg) = $20 000/15 000 = $1.33.../bet
    Rollover - RO = 40*b(avg) = 40x$1.33... = $20 000.

    Get SD (N) = (SD(BJ) = 1.15)*sqrt [b(avg)] * sqrt (RO) = 1.15*sqrt($1.33...)*sqrt($20 000) = $163.29.
    Then add in the total expectation for 3*SD(N)'s = 3*(+- $163.29) + (TE = $107.82)= [-$382.05, $597.69]. A one dollar bet will barely clear - 3SD(N)'s. So bet big initially, and, if you're lucky and don't lose the initial bet, just grind away at the remainder of N = (# of hands with 1$ bets). Loooong slog. Figuring it out, your bet must be <~ $1.333... So's you don't exceed -3SD(N)'s.
    Last edited: May 10, 2016

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