Flat-betting 1000 hands- How many wins, double-downs and blackjacks should you have?

[Westland Bowl]

Using perfect basic strategy while flat-betting, how many winning hands should you expect in 1000 rounds? How many double downs should you win? How about blackjacks? How often would you have winning streaks above 5 in a row?

I know that the normal winning percentage in blackjack for the player is around 42% give or take 1% depending on the table rules. You should win about 55% of your double-downs. I'm not sure how many blackjacks I should expect or how often I would get winning streaks. (I'm too tired to check Wizard-Of-Odds)

Lately, my blackjack results from online casinos are worst than statistical norms, even while flat-betting. And the online casinos ALWAYS start out in negative variance mode to where you never stay above your deposit amount for any significant amount of time. Also, since I do a slight progression while I'm in a winning streak, I rarely get any more winning streaks above 6 in a row.

Blackjack in online casinos is NOT random. Prove it to yourself: Flat bet $5 and when you win three in a row, bet $7. If you win that hand, bet $11. If you win, bet $17 next. (then $25, $37, etc. as long as you are winning) Whenever you lose, go back to flat-betting $5 until your next winning streak of three in a row then do the above betting sequence again. Once the online casino figures you are doing this, your winning percentage will plummet and your winning streaks shorter.

 

[funeral979]

Using perfect basic strategy while flat-betting, how many winning hands should you expect in 1000 rounds? How many double downs should you win? How about blackjacks? How often would you have winning streaks above 5 in a row?

I know that the normal winning percentage in blackjack for the player is around 42% give or take 1% depending on the table rules. You should win about 55% of your double-downs. I'm not sure how many blackjacks I should expect or how often I would get winning streaks. (I'm too tired to check Wizard-Of-Odds)

Lately, my blackjack results from online casinos are worst than statistical norms, even while flat-betting. And the online casinos ALWAYS start out in negative variance mode to where you never stay above your deposit amount for any significant amount of time. Also, since I do a slight progression while I'm in a winning streak, I rarely get any more winning streaks above 6 in a row.

Blackjack in online casinos is NOT random.

I used to drop my bets after a win (occasionally i still do)....but I now also do a small progression when on a winning streak. Sometimes this works, and sometimes, well......

This is such a sore subject with me...and i really wish some of the casinos or software providers would step forward and tell us that their blackjack REALLY is RTP based. Maybe 4OAK will squeeze it out of them someday.

As far as winning streaks and losing streaks go....you will probably see about 20 streaks of losing 10+ hands in a row before you see one where you win 10 in a row.

I actually almost fell off my chair a few weeks ago at Cherry Red, where I had a nice streak of winning 22 out of 25 hands. I am sure I will never see that again.

 

[Westland Bowl]

.......This is such a sore subject with me...and i really wish some of the casinos or software providers would step forward and tell us that their blackjack REALLY is RTP based. Maybe 4OAK will squeeze it out of them someday.

You quoted me before I finished editing my last paragraph in the original post. You don't have to wait for an answer....just compare how you do with strictly flat-betting for a 1000 hands THEN start doing the progression in winning streaks as I outlined in the original post. You will start to see the casino NOT liking you anymore!

As far as winning streaks and losing streaks go....you will probably see about 20 streaks of losing 10+ hands in a row before you see one where you win 10 in a row.

I actually almost fell off my chair a few weeks ago at Cherry Red, where I had a nice streak of winning 22 out of 25 hands. I am sure I will never see that again.

Wow! Nice ride there! Only once did I see a 12-win winning streak and that was last year. My highest winning streak at most online casinos is commonly 9 in a row. But that was before I started doing winning streak progressions.

 

[takethemoney]

I used to drop my bets after a win (occasionally i still do)....but I now also do a small progression when on a winning streak. Sometimes this works, and sometimes, well......

This is such a sore subject with me...and i really wish some of the casinos or software providers would step forward and tell us that their blackjack REALLY is RTP based. Maybe 4OAK will squeeze it out of them someday.

As far as winning streaks and losing streaks go....you will probably see about 20 streaks of losing 10+ hands in a row before you see one where you win 10 in a row.

I actually almost fell off my chair a few weeks ago at Cherry Red, where I had a nice streak of winning 22 out of 25 hands. I am sure I will never see that again.

Ramp betting, I hope!

I did that years ago at Casino-On-Net, when USA could still play there. I had been betting $5 per hand, but suddenly, I was not losing any hands. I started to double the bet after each win and soon found myself ahead $8500. You have to clobber the casino when that rare opportunity comes and it really pays to know when that is.

 

[funeral979]

Well I think one thing we can agree on for sure....playing online BJ is like playing chess...

After a few dozen hands or so, the software knows how you are playing, and adjusts to that, and you can then see the nosedive just ahead, so you must plan for a counterattack.

So if I have a decent enough bankroll....and im betting in the $5-$15 range, and getting taken for a ride....ill occasionally throw in the $97 hail mary....just to toy with the bastard...and it seems to work quite often!

I have learned that the software hates to see you win on even numbers, and max bets (maybe this is just me, but in my sick mind its how I see it). Especially Microgaming. Back when i used to play a little more heavily, I saw that betting $200 a hand was disastrous....but if you fluctuated between, say, $170-$195 you had much better results.

Real scientific, I know