SvenskaDoubling on Blackjack
- Thread starter antibes
- Start date
I calculated this some time last year and posted the results here.
The probability of winning is usually 50%-60%, the probability of a tie is around 10%.
The probability of winning is usually 50%-60%, the probability of a tie is around 10%.
If it were, you wouldn't.antibes said:
I once did a very extensive manual run using D9 rules, and got 60/40 in favour. Factoring in soft doubles, it's probably about 56/44.
BTW, on the subject of BJ theory: check out the BJmath website. My estimation of them has just gone through the floor - they're advertising Golden Palace:
"Looking to Play BlackJack for Free or Money? Play Online.
This casino has a 300% bonus and good statistical odds. Test your strategies online."
Bah, gimme a break. These people should be setting an example. How about putting up one of the REPUTABLE casinos on the homepage? Intercasino? iNetbet? 32Red?
Jeez.
antibes said:
You're giving up about .1% when you don't double any soft totals. So about a $1 loss per $1000 wagered. (Based on the wizards Blackjack house edge calculator)
Doesn't seem like much. But when you're playing a game with a .4% HA, you're increasing the house edge by over 25% when you don't double your soft totals.
Probability of win/tie/lossscrollock said:
11v5 0.621849, 0.0699025, 0.308249
11v6 0.635285, 0.0666062, 0.298109
10v5 0.596309, 0.0709274, 0.332764
10v6 0.612106, 0.0680937, 0.3198
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Can you give me a link? I have calculated the numbers myself. I should have mentioned that they are for 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17.caruso said:
The two 8's aren't exactly great either. The possible decisions in the order of decreasing expected value are: split, surrender, hit, stand and double, and there is not much difference between the first four. The point is that it does not matter whether your moves have positive or negative expected value, you should make the one with the highest expected value, even if it just means that you expect to lose less than with the other choices. Some of the soft doubles mentioned earlier are not particularly great either, but doubling in those situationd is better than hitting or standing.caruso said:
The software doesn't matter, it's the rules that dictate what strategy chart is optimal.
The key rules are
Whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17 (it's worse for you when the dealler hits)
Can you double after splitting (you split less often when you can't double)
Can you double on 10/11, 9/10/11, or any 2 cards.
Can you surrender.
Does the dealer peek for blackjack. The key here is whether you lose multiple bets if you double/splilt and the dealer has blackjack. If the dealer doesn't peek, but you get any double/split bets back, then you can treat the game as if the dealelr is peeking.
The key rules are
Whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17 (it's worse for you when the dealler hits)
Can you double after splitting (you split less often when you can't double)
Can you double on 10/11, 9/10/11, or any 2 cards.
Can you surrender.
Does the dealer peek for blackjack. The key here is whether you lose multiple bets if you double/splilt and the dealer has blackjack. If the dealer doesn't peek, but you get any double/split bets back, then you can treat the game as if the dealelr is peeking.
Those are only expected value tables, they don't give the probabilities of the various outcomes. The can calculate the expected values from the probabilities, but not the other way around.
