Don't play BJ at Sunny Group part 2

[kylegee]

Wasn't going to post this but read another thread so I though I might...


I have had very bad luck with BJ at a sunnygroup casino(worse then usual). At first playing with BS and betting sceams worked to my advantage slightly. After doubling my money on about 10 ocasions; the program seemed to change and give me huge strings of convinent losses, with 1 win for every eight or so to keep me interested. By convinient loss I mean: I would be delt 12 him 16, stand dealer gets a 4 or 5. This would happen mutiple times in a row. Or I would bust at unusual levels. I wrote this off as improbable but not impossible. I havn't played there for almost 2 weeks... until yesterday.

At this casino the offer a min of $.10 and a max of $300 at a table for casino war. I ended up loosing two sets of 10 in a row, only after doubling my deposit of course. I didn't receive a streak in order to win, the outcome was still a rough 50/50.

My question is what are the odds on loosing 10 hands of casino war in a row?

I'm getting about 0.048/100 or 4.8:10000



,Kyle

 

[hhcfreebie]

My question is what are the odds on loosing 10 hands of casino war in a row?

I'm getting about 0.048/100 or 4.8:10000

,Kyle

Playtech use 6 decks for war. Chance of tie is 7.4%, chance of win/loose are both 46.3%.
To loose 10 hands in a row (no tie), it would be 4.53/10,000, or 1 in 2208.
It's a rare event but it could happen. Considering you play 1,000 hands, to have this event within 1000 hands would be 36.17%. If you play 5,000 hands, you would have 89.58% chance to see this unfortunate event.

 

[bethug]

at sunnygroup soon as u double your money cash out , i have had them losing streaks so many time. I just dont trust playtec casino software

 

[kylegee]

Thx for your odds. I played under 100 hands and this happened twice. So I think something is fishy.

But nevertheless I'll stay away from them from now on.

Also, how did you get your probabillity %. I figured the game would have a slight advantage for the player. 50/50 of the go....then if there is a tie 50/50 on the war and if there is a tie again on the war the player automaticly wins. Please explain it to me, I would like to learn.

Thanks,

Kyle

 

[Clayman]

I figured the game would have a slight advantage for the player.

You better check out the Wiz and learn about House Advantage. You'll find very few games on the Internet that offer the player an advantage.

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As you can see, war gives the House a 2.33% edge in a 6 deck game with the bonus rule. This is ALOT more than BJ, btw.

As far as figuring out the probabilities go, you can try using COMBIN(n,k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k) for figuring out the chances of k successes in n trials with probability of success p. In your case, p is (1-(23/311))/2 to the tenth power. Making k=0 and n=991 (since you only have 991 chances of getting 10 in a row in 1000 hands) will give you the probability of your event NOT happening, so subtract it from 1 and you have the chances of your event happening one or more times.

Hope this helps.

Where is Whitehorse, YT anyway?

 

[hhcfreebie]

Thx for your odds. I played under 100 hands and this happened twice. So I think something is fishy.

But nevertheless I'll stay away from them from now on.

Also, how did you get your probabillity %. I figured the game would have a slight advantage for the player. 50/50 of the go....then if there is a tie 50/50 on the war and if there is a tie again on the war the player automaticly wins. Please explain it to me, I would like to learn.

To see 10 looses in a row twice in 100 hands is very rare. Are you sure about this? Playtech only offer history up to a certain hands, maybe you need to request playlog from the casino.
More often than not our mind would trick us to believe we are seeing something. 5 straight loose would be easily identified as 8 loose because it hurt. For the same token, we tends to think it's normal to win but in fact winning is also uncommon after many hands.
There is a house edge with war. The easy way to explain that is when you tie with the house, you need to go to war or you will automatically loose. When you want to go to war, you need to put extra bet on the table. If you are lucky to win, you only win the extra bet. However, if you loose you'll loose the originial bet AND the extra bet.
The house gain advantage whenever you tie with them.
Another similiar game known as the "double or nothing" in video poker has no house edge. When you tie with dealer, your bet is returned. You can try to double up again or take the money.

 

[kylegee]

Checked the records...to clerify I lost 11 in a row the first streak and 7 the next. All in about 100 hands. They didn't happen right back to back. All I trying to say is with every game there I've played, as soon as you double your money some very convenient things happen that favour them. I hate to think that if they are cheating that they can just get away with it.


BTW Whitehorse, YT is Whitehorse, Yukon(Canadian Territory and Capital city about 100 miles east of Skagway,AK)



,Kyle

 

[Clayman]

Checked the records...to clerify I lost 11 in a row the first streak and 7 the next. All in about 100 hands. They didn't happen right back to back. All I trying to say is with every game there I've played, as soon as you double your money some very convenient things happen that favour them. I hate to think that if they are cheating that they can just get away with it.
BTW Whitehorse, YT is Whitehorse, Yukon(Canadian Territory and Capital city about 100 miles east of Skagway,AK)
,Kyle

Thanks for saying where you are - didn't recognize the YT as Canada. Bet it's real nice there.

Anyway, if it's of any help, I think you'll find the software fair at any bet level. The key is to play correctly and don't bet too much. If you are betting enough to double your money in a fairly short time, you better be prepared for a lot of bust-outs. The fact you seem to think that war has a player advantage, that you think 2 losing streaks of 10 turn out to be one of 11, and say things like "By convinient loss I mean: I would be delt 12 him 16, stand dealer gets a 4 or 5" makes me worry that you may not know exactly what you are doing. What does that mean anyway? - the dealer can't be dealt a 16.

There's only one correct play in BJ for the rules you are playing under, so make sure you know what it is and play it every single time or don't play at all. I hate to see someone throw their money away.

Now that you know, hopefully, how these probabilities are derived, you know that losing 11 in a row in 100 hands is not that unusual. What number do you come up with?

Good luck to you but, remember, you lose a little money every bet you make, even when you win. So be careful out there.