Does this make sense?

sintualex

Dormant account
Hey guys! Just wondering about this:
When you play a certain blackjack type of game with a strategy that gives the house an edge of say 0.4% and say you have $200 initially, wouldn't this be true?

If you play a lot (thousands or more) of hands, your money should be somewhere in the 190-200 let's say. But what if every time you play and go 50 over, that is reaching 250...you stop...and the next day you come back.
Now you have 250 and after playing a lot of games you should be in the 240-250 zone....and when you go at 300 you stop playing again and so on....

Am I missing something? Thanx!
Alex.
 

jpsartre

Dormant account
Your example assumes that every time you play you will at one point be ahead with $50. Unfortunately, this assumption is incorrect. One day you will play and lose everything before reaching that goal. However, your idea would work if playing a game with a negative house-edge like the one-deck BJ at some Boss-casinos. At this game you will, in the very long run, be ahead overall.
 

KasinoKing

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sintualex said:
If you play a lot (thousands or more) of hands, your money should be somewhere in the 190-200 let's say.
If you play 1000's of hands with a 0.4% house edge, starting from $200, why on earth would you expect to be anywhere near 190-200???
Am I missing something?

To answer your other point: If you play ANY casino game and always only stop when you are ahead... need I go on? ;)
 

Vesuvio

Dormant account
KasinoKing said:
If you play 1000's of hands with a 0.4% house edge, starting from $200, why on earth would you expect to be anywhere near 190-200???
Am I missing something?
It should take 2500 hands, on average, to lose $10 at a 0.4% house edge (though doubling & splitting complicate matters).
 

Vesuvio

Dormant account
Don't know the statistics for the variance/risk of ruin, but from experience at on-line casinos you can definitely lose $200 autoplaying 2500 $1 hands. Assume the variance to be higher than it should be due to the wonders of rigged software ;)
 

KasinoKing

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Vesuvio said:
It should take 2500 hands, on average, to lose $10 at a 0.4% house edge (though doubling & splitting complicate matters).
Your not kidding me, are you? :confused: 2500 $1 hands to lose $10?
I realise I know very little about blackjack odds, but that is just INCREDIBLE! :notworthy

I beat the odds every time then - cos it normally only takes me about 100 $2 hands to lose $50! ;)
 

DeMango

Dormant account
Back to the original question folks. The poster expects to win $50 at EVERY session at first then play X amount of hands and lose at the expected loss rate of .4%. Huh? The question makes no sense, if you have a progession that does this, no need to goto Autoplay, just keep on winning!
 

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