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do we agree with this expert

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by rockycatt, Aug 7, 2013.

    Aug 7, 2013
  1. rockycatt

    rockycatt meistercatt

    Occupation:
    carpenter
    Location:
    Boston
    John Robison Send to a Friend Send this Article to a Friend


    Thank you for your weekly newsletter - great stuff.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    When you get into a bonus round on a slot machine that requires you to make choices, e.g., three treasure chests out of eight, or pick until you lose, spin a wheel, anything like that, do your choices really make a difference, or has the RNG already determined how much you will win?

    Thanks,
    Larry

    Dear Larry,

    Thanks for the kind words about my column.

    Let me start with your last question first. Has the RNG determined how much you will win? On a Class III slot machine (the kind in Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Tunica, etc.), the RNG has not determined what you will win. The RNG is used to determine what values are under each choice. What you pick determines how much you win.

    Your first question was whether your choices really make a difference. Even though your choices determine how much you win, your choices don't matter. You have no information available to tell you what value is under each choice, so the long-term average of the amount you win in the bonus round is the same whether you always choose the same items, always choose right to left or left to right, always choose randomly, or use a different method on each bonus round. Because the average is the same, your choices don't really matter.

    The fact that your choices can determine your fate and still not matter can be a difficult concept to wrap one's head around. By way of an analogy, let's say we have three sets of fair dice, one pair red, one blue and one white. You call one of the colors and then throw all of the dice. Because each pair is completely fair, when we track the number of times each total appears on each pair, in the long run each pair will generate the pyramid of craps. The color you choose determines your results for that throw, but in the long run it doesn't matter which color you choose because the probabilities are the same for each pair of dice.

    On Class II machines, the kind you find in Indian casinos without state compacts and machines run by state lotteries, the result of your play has already been determined by a central server. What you choose makes no difference. The central server has already determined how much you will win.

    Jackpots for all,
    John
     
    2 people like this.
  2. Aug 7, 2013
  3. CasinoBen

    CasinoBen Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Managing Director
    Location:
    Marbella
    Hi Rockycatt,

    I was always under the impression that the outcome of the bonus round is predetermined and I have read articles where reps from IGT, Aristrocrat support that. But saying that I read these articles a few years ago so it is possible that things in land based slots have changed with the Class III slots that he is referring to.

    I do find his first statement kind of contradictory as he is saying that the RNG has not determined how much you win, but the RNG determines the value of the win under each choice. To me this basically says that the RNG has in fact determined how much you win if it is determining the value of the prize.

    Really cool post. I hope other members contribute as it is certainly a very interesting topic.

    Thanks,

    Ben
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. Aug 7, 2013
  5. GGW Laurie

    GGW Laurie Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Self Employed
    Location:
    In the Beautiful South !!


    I would agree with the class II machines , the Indian owned casinos have no state gaming agencies on site like the ones you find in Tunica or Vegas !!

    Great post Rocky:thumbsup:

    Laurie
     
    1 person likes this.
  6. Aug 7, 2013
  7. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    I have noticed with a number of online slots that if you play the Flash versions on a slightly slower machine like a laptop you can tell what's going to happen by a stutter in the spin. This is noticable on WMS and Quickfire games in particular. In WMS's games, the length of the stutter relates to the number of paylines you are about to win on as much as it does the amount. With Quickfire, you simply know it's a win or not about to land and it's almost unnoticeable...takes some getting used to. But it's there. I don' think the QF one indicates the amount of the win though from what I can tell.
     
    3 people like this.
  8. Aug 7, 2013
  9. gokkie

    gokkie Senior Member PABnononaccred

    Occupation:
    Manager finance
    Location:
    Netherlands
    I don't know if I quite understand it now.
    For example on hellboy you have to choose doors in the bonus round.
    A few have traps and a few have prizes.
    So it does not really matter which doors I choose as the RNG has allready in advance determined my total prize for that bonus round?

    Does this apply for all MG slots and for all netent slots, for example silent run, where you have to choose boats to fire a torpedo to. Does it actually matter which boats I choose or is the Total prize allready determined before I fire any torpedoes? I would really really like to know that.
     
  10. Aug 7, 2013
  11. dionysus

    dionysus can turn wine into water CAG MM

    Occupation:
    n/a
    Location:
    I'm a Canucklehead
    From everything I heard, the pick and pokes are pre-determined, regardless of what you pick...so if you're meant to get the 50x..if you pick the first, the 100x is under the second, and if you pick the second, the 100x is under the first..that it's all just eye candy
    over at 3Dice, the programmers are happy to say, bonus rounds are video animations..just that; there to please the senses, because the machine just adding to your total is boring
     
    3 people like this.
  12. Aug 7, 2013
  13. Jasminebed

    Jasminebed Closer to 100 than Birth

    Occupation:
    Not in workforce
    Location:
    Ontario
    A member here, Dogboy, who was if I remember correctly, a programmer or game designer with RTG said that it was predetermined if you didn't see what was under the other "boxes", and random if after your pick the others were revealed. To be honest, I have my doubts about the random ones. If you look at the number of times you have the 100 freespins under one of the ClubWorldCasinos slot picks, versus the number of times you pick it (for me, none, and there are only three girls to pick from), I must be very very unlucky.

    3Dice has stated their pick bonuses don't matter, but that freespins are random, and Enzo provided an explanation as to why freespins totals being predetermined was awkward and basically unworkable.

    I've been in casinos in Quebec, which has pretty transparent gambling rules and legislation. Some of the slots have laminated cards attached because the game info buttons don't have enough information, and some of these states that what you pick does not influence the outcome of the game.

    Even if it did, since you don't know what's in those treasure chests, it would be random anyway. As explained in the dice analogy in the original post.

    If you look at slots like Jackpot Party's progressives (both online and land based) I think that they must be predetermined, otherwise you would win one far more often.

    It's a surprise when I play, and fair enough no matter what happens behind the curtain as far as I am concerned.
     
    1 person likes this.
  14. Aug 7, 2013
  15. dionysus

    dionysus can turn wine into water CAG MM

    Occupation:
    n/a
    Location:
    I'm a Canucklehead
    exactly, just because it's pre-determined, doesnt mean it isnt random...I still don't know the result the machine will pull, even if some prizes are more weighted than others and value percents (in the bag) vary
     
  16. Aug 7, 2013
  17. GGW Laurie

    GGW Laurie Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Self Employed
    Location:
    In the Beautiful South !!

    I remember Dogboy and there was a thread about it several years ago and yes you are correct Jassy , he did say it is all predetermined and went to great lengths explaining how it all worked, it was very informative!

    Laurie
     
  18. Aug 7, 2013
  19. dunover

    dunover Unofficial T&C's Editor Staff Member CAG PABnononaccred PABnonaccred PABinit mm3 webmeister

    Occupation:
    International Money Launderer
    Location:
    the bus shelter, opposite GCHQ Benhall
    The 'picks' are simply a form of player interaction and nothing more. They make bugger-all difference to the RTP the gameplay or anything else. The hidden values are carefully generated so you feel 'successful' when picking the best one and the other lower ones are revealed, and conversely 'oh sod it!' when you pick a low one and the hidden higher ones are revealed. All flim flam and nonsense.
     
    2 people like this.
  20. Aug 7, 2013
  21. gokkie

    gokkie Senior Member PABnononaccred

    Occupation:
    Manager finance
    Location:
    Netherlands
    However choosing between features like on playboy, IR are dependant on which feature you choose right, because of the difference in variance between these features? So when I choose for example 10 spins x5 then the RNG determines the outcome, not before I make my choice, right?
     
  22. Aug 7, 2013
  23. MisterBJ

    MisterBJ Account suspended until further notice - please co

    Occupation:
    Fedex
    Location:
    Atlanta
    I don't like the ideal, not being able to choose the grand prize. When the grand prize really isn't there. But a set of prizes already determine for me. My wife says the same thing about Let's Make A Deal game show. When the contestant chooses curtain #1. And the host stalls to open curtain #1. My wife says they just moved the big deal over to curtain #2 LOL
     
  24. Aug 7, 2013
  25. aceking123

    aceking123 Ueber Meister CAG PABnononaccred MM

    Occupation:
    chippy
    Location:
    uk
    heres onefor you , many of you guys will see whilst playing it cannot just be me , i had a nice hit 125x stake or so only to find another 800 spins on same stake to hit another feature , i choose the same feature & said to myself before i pressed the start button a 100% true you, i will not hit the wild feature on the feature i had 25 spins at it , im sure most of the forum members will be very well aware of what happened in this feature almost as if knows 100% to what was paid on its last feature this happens far to often :confused:
     
  26. Aug 8, 2013
  27. Cristian

    Cristian Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    gambling
    Location:
    Constanta
    3dice`s game Moolah was always lagging before a good spin . Blackjack was also lagging before you got beat ( in a rather strange way ) .
    Over at MG , it pretty much doesn`t matter what you pick . Doubling up in video poker is predetermined . If you are supposed to win that double up you will pick A over K , if you are supposed to lose you`ll pick 2 with 3 showing . It also laggs sometimes but they say it`s just poor comunication between the user and the server . Whatever ...

    Lets take Mad hatters for example ( at MG ). The picking feature ( freespins ) is useless . The ammount is predetermined anyway and it does not matter what you pick . You cannot say that the lower value wild ( the guy with the yellow hat ) will show up more during freespins .

    Hitman . You will get the highest win just by picking the last one during bonus . The others won't work simply because they have lower values . But youll get the minumum win more often by chosing the highest value (and vice versa). So it doesn`t really matter which one you pick . Same thing with the insignia bonus . It really doesn`t matter which one you chose . I noticed that a session that lacks good insignia bonuses will be a losing one . I do play Hitman alot . And the most important thing is to always get out after a good win . It just sucks you dry .

    Same thing with Immortal Romance . It doesn`t matter what you pick . And more i really think that the Wild desire thingy is a scam . Yea , i know i see big wins every day with 3 , 4 , 5 wild reels , but im pretty sure that the feature is just there to " even things out " and it`s not really random as you might think . The real question is how much you lost before you got a big win on that feature .
    And yea , if you get a big one , get out ... dry spells are coming your way hard . I have nothing to back this up , just speaking from experience i guess . Our brains are so good at recognizing patterns . Don`t tell me they are not there please . All the games look like they are goverened by a higher force that says : now you win , now you don`t and the rest is just eye-candy .

    I hit 25spins x 5 multi on Leagues of fortune . Well it has to pay something good , right ? No , not really , only 7 bucks for you sir . Facepalm , i really thought i will make WR .
     
  28. Aug 8, 2013
  29. Nifty29

    Nifty29 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    PAID CASINO SHILL
    Location:
    Turn right, then right. then right again
    The patterns are all in your mind, most likely because you're looking for them and wanting them to be there.

    The ONLY way to know is to record gazillions of spins and run some analysis.

    Just because a game gives you 25 x 5 free spins doesn't mean its going to pay big. You remember these events, but you quickly forget when you got some really BIG wins above the norm. Its human nature.

    I get from your post that you seem to have unrealistic expectations about slots, and that you may not understand the role that variance plays in your results. I would suggest some further reading in the forums as there are some excellent posts on the subject.

    The ONLY "force" slots are governed by is the RNG.
     
  30. Aug 8, 2013
  31. Nifty29

    Nifty29 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    PAID CASINO SHILL
    Location:
    Turn right, then right. then right again
    Another good example of unrealistic expectations.

    If the above example happened EVERY time EXACTLY as you describe, then I would agree there's something dodgy. However, I know myself that this is NOT the norm. I've waited long periods for the feature on playboy, and I've had it three times in 10 spins (,2 paid well 1 did not). The wild feature on the end is extremely high variance...it is not unusual to get no wilds in the 25 spins. I've seen 47 with no wilds. However, it also has the potential to pay the slots biggest prize. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

    The features have no memory of what they paid before....they don't NEED to...the suggestion is a bit silly really. Most times they pay little, and sometimes they pay HUGE....but some interpret that getting a dud one after a big one means the game is "adapting" etc, instead of realizing that all its doing is what it often does I.e. pay little.

    It concerns me that some players still have this idea that the feature game on a slot is some kind of "reward" that they are "owed" (for want of a better phrase). It doesn't work like that. It gives you a CHANCE to hit something big via multipliers or stacked reels or whatever, but it is not any kind of guarantee. Once you move past this as a player you will enjoy your play a whole lot more.

    Personally,the minute a slot starts to annoy me like this I just log out and go do something else...its no longer fun.
     
    3 people like this.
  32. Aug 8, 2013
  33. aceking123

    aceking123 Ueber Meister CAG PABnononaccred MM

    Occupation:
    chippy
    Location:
    uk
    well yer & no nifty . its not like ive just started to play ive been around the block more than i few times , its a trend nothing more nothing less , it happens to all players if your telling that this has not happened to you on many years of playing then you must be the most luckiest guy on the planet & in due course go buy a lotto ticket as your no doubt win it ,

    im saying from many years of play this happens very very often ,ive seen & read many many threads on here , wheres there is always the so called random line ,im not suggesting it owes me either im saying that after a ok 100X bet onwards it remains at the lower end in a ratio of 1-10 features , almost as if re building the pot like a AWP machine people have stated there is a big difference ( which we already know ) i ask the question of video slots being slightly diiferent but running with a masked back end like a awp machine or are they as random as we are led to believe ? ? ? ?
     
    1 person likes this.
  34. Aug 8, 2013
  35. everyday

    everyday Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    British Columbia, Canada
    I'm a pattern recognizer too and you are so right that it is all in our minds. But we are not looking for them. It's definitely a sub conscience thing going on with me at least. We just have an extra wire or a loose wire:) that keeps track of this stuff for us. I think that is why this conversation keeps coming up here because it's difficult for those that haven't experienced it to understand it. I see patterns all the time that my brain just shoves to the forefront of my thoughts so I basically know what kind of a session I'll have pretty quickly. But as I've said before, it's right 99% of the time but that 1% comes out of the blue and blows you away. In the last 7 months MG has been brutal and seeing the same continuous pattern emerging every time I sit to play certainly has taken the fun out of it lately. Call it gut feeling, woman's intuition or whatever name suits this kind of occurrence but I haven't felt that warm fuzzy feeling when sitting down to play, in a long time. Long enough in fact that I just uninstalled my 3 main casino sites a couple of days ago because I'm tired of that "Oh no..here we go again" experience. I just like trusting my gut as it's never steered me wrong yet. This "pattern" and RNG conversation will always be here as we haven't managed to put it to rest yet and most likely won't. But it keeps life interesting!
     
    1 person likes this.
  36. Aug 8, 2013
  37. Nifty29

    Nifty29 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    PAID CASINO SHILL
    Location:
    Turn right, then right. then right again
    Of course stuff like you mentioned has happened to me....plenty of times (too many :p).

    On the flip side, on IR I've hit 4 wild desires in 20 spins of which one was a 4-reel wild. Ive had similar events on TSII etc. I've also gone 1000 spins without seeing it. I've also hit it around every 100-150 spins. Ive also hit it three times in 30 spins them not for 500. See where I'm going with this?

    As humans, we tend to clearly remember the shitty sessions when we got fleeced, and then it brings back memories of the other time something similar happened, and then the light bulb goes on above our heads and we start making connections....that don't actually exist. We completely forget/dismiss all the hundreds of fairly ordinary or actually quite profitable sessions, because they aren't out of the ordinary I.e. we actually start seeing the quite unusual as "ordinary", when in fact if we looked back at our play over time we would see it was actually quite EXTRAordinary.

    The "background AWP" theory has been sunk many times, so I wont go over that again. I will say this though....if I thought or suspected what you seem to, I would have given it up years ago, as I wouldn't enjoy it at all.

    If you're keen, get a playcheck log for several months of play and have a look through it. You will be quite surprised, and I almost guarantee you won't find a pattern or tendency.
     
    2 people like this.
  38. Aug 8, 2013
  39. Nifty29

    Nifty29 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    PAID CASINO SHILL
    Location:
    Turn right, then right. then right again
    I don't have time now, but I've got some questions etc for you later.

    Stay tuned :)
     

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