Did I just blow a great chance at a cash-out?

[AC7X]

I signed up for a 375% bonus with a 32x bonus + deposit wagering requirement at Slots Capital. Playing Goldenman at 80p/spin on my modest £120 starting balance and hit the freespin feature which retriggered and turned the first three reels all wild for some big wins, boosting my balance to around £550. Bearing in mind that I had about £7500 left to wager at this point, I decided to up my stake to £2/spin. Goldenman proceeded to annihilate the entire bankroll without paying anything over £10.

Question is: was it stupid to up the stake hoping for a big win to see me through the WR, or should I have tried to grind it out at 40p/spin with my £550 balance? Rival slots, remember.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Just divide your bankroll by the house edge of the slot you're playing expressed as a decimal, and that should give you an idea of how much you could expect to wager with 'average' luck (i.e. you win back the full RTP over the course of your wagering).

Gold Rush is the highest paying Rival slot with an RTP of 98%, it's very low variance as well (don't be deceived by the fact it's a single line slot, the jackpot is tiny by single line slot standards and does come up with some regularity).

550 / 0.02 = expected wagering of £27500 from a £550 bankroll before bust out.

It wasn't a dead cert of course, but certainly wagering £7500 from a £550 bankroll on a 98% RTP low variance slot is a comfortably EV+ position to be in. On 'average' luck you could have expected to finish the WR with £300 or more left. Just fire up Gold Rush, put your coin size down to 0.10, and play 3 coins per spin for 30p spins, a coin size of 0.25 for 75p spins would have been a bit more dangerous but would have probably done the job too.

Obviously all this information would have been useful to you in the past......

It is more complex than that and Jufo does take issue with this simplified approach I take, but it has generally served me pretty well in terms of working out which bonuses to take on.

 

[AC7X]

Bollocks.

Oh well, only £25 lost.

 

[bpb]

All other variables held constant, your expected return is better by increasing your wager, since you increase your chance of busting, which decreases your expected amount of action, thus decreasing your exposure to the house edge.

In general, don't sweat the small stuff. The casino is going to get all your money in the long run. Don't get caught up in the specifics, just concentrate on getting some enjoyment for your $$$.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

All other variables held constant, your expected return is better by increasing your wager, since you increase your chance of busting, which decreases your expected amount of action, thus decreasing your exposure to the house edge.

Yeah but if you're in a position like the OP got himself into, where meeting the WR is very much the likely outcome with sensible bets on a low variance, high RTP slot - why risk a bust-out by maintaining relatively high bets or increasing them?

Sure you might win more, but a run of bad luck will turn a highly EV+ position into a bust-out. (Which indeed is what he did, increasing his bets to £2 per spin and busting out.)

 

[LaHutti]

Yeah but if you're in a position like the OP got himself into, where meeting the WR is very much the likely outcome with sensible bets on a low variance, high RTP slot - why risk a bust-out by maintaining relatively high bets or increasing them?
Sure you might win more, but a run of bad luck will turn a highly EV+ position into a bust-out. (Which indeed is what he did, increasing his bets to £2 per spin and busting out.)

Because Chopley...that's what makes gambling fun ... at least in my opinion.
Grinding takes the fun out of gambling..ofcourse, if you're in it for the smallest possible reward, that's the way to go, but if you, sometimes, want to get the bigger reward, raising your bet IS the way to go.
Personally I always bet "too high" on any bankroll, and quite frequently survive, and with pretty good result.
It's really a matter of what turns you on...1. the satisfaction when you beat the odds, in the smallest possible way, or 2. you take them to the cleaners, once in a while...I like 2. the most

 

[Dipity]

Agreed, LaHutti if you saw some of the bet sizing I use compared to my deposit, I'm sure there would be much tut tutting and head shaking from 90% of the members here

Once in a while you get that great hit and cashout a nice amount, and that's why I deposit (see my 750 euro hit off a 1.80 euro bet on DoA in the winners screenshots from lastnight )!

 

[Realitybitez]

I blow chances at cash outs all the time Story of my life:sob: