Combining Freebet Push 22 and Card Counting

[Mottorpop]

The casino closest to me has Freebet Blackjack. I know the side bets are ordinarily a bad deal ... but ... I am also starting my card counting journey and I realized that if I have a strong positive count (assume only partway through a six deck shoe), it means the house will bust a little more often. My mind is going back and forth with the possibilities. Does anyone know if the extra busts are enough to make the side bet worthwhile? Thanks.

 

[jasonuk]

The Wizards of Odds page at

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provides some insight into the overall statistics of the game.

Depending on the exact rules, the house edge tends to be higher (0.5-2.0%), and the side bets are going to be the usual fare (the Evolution version of FBB quotes 4-6% house edge).

Additionally, online providers are notorious for disabling side bets - whether at a fixed point in the shoe, or when their calculations suggest it benefits the player. I can't speak for live casinos in this regard.

So on the surface - much higher house edges to overcome, and even if the opportunity arises you may not be allowed to bet it anyway. So doesn't sound like a promising start...

As WOO did, once you start getting into such specific questions, you're into simulation territory - it's how the game providers confirm the RTP is correct and it's similarly how advantage players confirm their strategy is correct.

 

[Mottorpop]

Well ... many questions (this one included) were in my mind because I knew I had to run an errand out near the local casino (an hour away). I stopped yesterday and finally decided I would just watch and see if I could keep up at live play speed.

The first shoe went slightly negative and stayed there awhile, but I was surprised at how well I kept the count up.

The second shoe never strayed far from zero.

The third shoe went to a True +3 about mid shoe ... and then it got wild. The high cards started pouring out ... lots of blackjacks ... AND three Push 22's.

Okay, I know one night and three observed shoes are hardly anything to go on statistically ... but, I was crunching some means and standard deviations in my head and what I saw seemed to 'mostly' match my prediction ... a high card count (probably 3 or better) can help with the side bet, but when it became quite profitable was when the rapid drop back towards zero happened.

Oh ... and just to note, now that I know what card counting and adjustments to play looks like, I 'caught' another pair also counting. One was counting the other was betting .. and they did quite well on that third shoe. The casino staff did not seem to pay any attention to them ... or to me just staying there watching so long.

 

[Mottorpop]

During the last couple weeks, I have been working the kinks out of this idea.

Simple Summary:
) freebet blackjack is playable
) the Push 22 is playable in the positive range
) the Pot of Gold may be playable with a strong negative range but would not happen often.

Detailed Summary:
) I switched to a slightly more complex counting system that I feel works better for me and my goals
) Freebet blackjack needed an Alternate Optimal Strategy (for example, the standard optimal strategy would seldom split 4's ... but because of the free splits in Freebet, most of the time you will want to split them).
) Strengthen the deviations to reduce hitting with a positive count - - thereby forcing the dealer to bust a little more often.

I will consider describing this in more detail in three weeks - after my next trip to a land based casino where I will do a live test. Until then, I am practicing my counting and smoothing out the process.