Cheltenham Fancies 2020

[cncas2123]

Its nearly time for my favourite week of the year, the Cheltenham Festival. Each year in the run up I like to build up some ante post bets, and this year im starting with a few bets on the first day. I think Henderson will win the first race with Shiskin and the Champion Hurdle with Epatante, but surely the best bet of the whole meeting has to be Benie des dieux in the Mares Hurdle.

Has anyone else got any fancies for Cheltenham?

 

[steveh35]

Coronavirus could be an odds on favourite at the moment.

 

[steveh35]

Betfair opened a 'Will Racing Go Ahead?' market on their exchange on Tuesday night, and on Wednesday evening 'no' was trading at around 3.25 (from an opening 4.1).

More than £60,000 had been traded on the market by 6pm on Wednesday, with 'yes' at around 1.4.

 

[colinsunderland]

I rarely bet ante post but have a small yankee on these

Northern Trust (Close Brothers) Imperial Aura (took 14's, now 7's)
Martin PIpe Ilikedthewayurthinkin (8's)
Supreme Novices Captain Guiness (16's)
Pertemps Tout Est Permis (14's)

I have a feeling the ground will be soft/heavy and if so can totally change the way the races are ran, which is why I don't usually do ante post lol

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

Only 1 Antepost bet for me and to be honest i only placed that last week Backed Solo last Thursday at 20's for the Triumph Hurdle french horse and was running in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton last Saturday same route Zarkandar took another french import when winning the Triumph for Nicholls a few years ago now my thinking was if it runs any race at Kempton last Saturday odds will more than half.....

Pissed up Saturday at Kempton and now a best price 3/1 so im sitting pretty on that at the minute

 

[cncas2123]

Only 1 Antepost bet for me and to be honest i only placed that last week Backed Solo last Thursday at 20's for the Triumph Hurdle french horse and was running in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton last Saturday same route Zarkandar took another french import when winning the Triumph for Nicholls a few years ago now my thinking was if it runs any race at Kempton last Saturday odds will more than half.....

Pissed up Saturday at Kempton and now a best price 3/1 so im sitting pretty on that at the minute

20/1 looking a fantastic bet now, it ran a great race on Saturday and never came off the bridle. I think the triumph is going to be a hot race this year, Allmankind has done nothing wrong and if Goshen could jump slicky and straighter it would have a good chance, but Solo did look the part on Saturday.

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

I'm probably going to have a good look over the weekend and may do a little write up for each day if you lads dont mind?

 

[shapesy]

Usually got a few picked out by now but not this year yet!

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

Day 1

Supreme Novices 13.30

16 of the last 26 winners have been Irish Trained.

The best guide for the Irish horses for this race Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle ran at the Dublin racing festival last years winner of the Klassical Dream went on to to win this race last term for Willie Mullins. This years winner of the trial was Asterion Forlonge pissed up by about 10 lengths. Like a Butterfly, Vautor, Brave Inca and Champagne Fever all won this Grade 1 at Leopardstown and then went on to win the Supreme so the form of this race holds a strong card indeed.

17 of the last 24 winners of the Supreme had won their last 2 races and 19 of the 24 had ran in the previous 45 days so a hurse in form and with a recent run is key.

The last 11 winners of the supreme have all had at least 4 runs over hurdles the front 2 in the market both Shiskin and Asterion Forlonge will be trying to scupper that stat as both will have only had 2 starts over Hurdles.

In terms of form in Britain the best guide seems to be the previous years Champion bumper 5 of the last 17 supreme winners finished in the first 5 of the previous years bumper ad the best horse out of last years bumper going in this seems to be Abacadabras for Gordon Elliot.

It seems to be more of a stayers race nowadays the likes of Al Ferof beating Sprinter Sacre and Champagne Fever beatig the slicker quicker My Tent or Yours. So horses who started on the flat seem to be at a disadvantage.

Last years winner Klassical Dream was actually due to run in the Ballymore but switched races with about a week to go due to the testing ground so dont be put off by that if you manage to notice it potentially Envoi Allen could do that who knows?

11 of the last 14 favourites to be sent off at 2/1 or smaller have been beaten,

Ideally you want to be on something that has won its last 2 starts and had 3 or more runs over Hurdles from a stats point of view Henderson and Mullins both have good records in the race.

I'd be staying away from Horses that ran on the flat, Are short priced Favs, Have not had a run within 45 days and beaten last time out.

Based upon the above as it stands today I'd be looking on a win bet on Sporting John at 8/1

I also think 2 at nice EW prices are Fred at 40/1 and Allart 20/1.

Putting the 3 in a very small combi fc and tc could add to the fun too.

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

If youre interested I can finish day 1's selections off tomorrow in the same manner if anybody feels like its relevant

 

[PMKFRUITPRO]

Yes please do.

Always like a decent guide and other peoples opinions.

Skybet doing their money back as cash on 1st race of 1st day only (at the moment) up to £10 so a free punt for everyone.

Last year it was up to £25 back as cash on the first race of each day but they won’t be repeating that one!!!

 

[cncas2123]

@Concerned Whistleblower would love to see the insights on Cheltenham. @colinsunderland would be great to see anything that you have a liking for, its always good to read your input and as this is a specifically racing thread its the members who like an occasional punt that will be reading it.

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

Day 1

Arkle 14.10

In terms of the betting for this years renewal its as open as its been for a little while Duc De Genevries won last year at 5/1 but the years previous to that we have had some heavy favourites take this race in the likes of Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Altior and Footpad. So we know that very rarely does this race throw up a big price winner or a shock of the last 29 winners of the race 25 of the have been priced at 11/1 or shorter with 16 of those 25 being sent off in the first 4 in the betting.

Willie Mullins will be looking for a 5th win in the race in the past 6 years with his leading hope being Cash Back.

Eight winners stretching back to and including 2000 entered the Arkle as the best hurdler in the race on official ratings and three others were the second-top-rated-over-hurdles contenders in their year. Of the leading hopes, Global Citizen was the highest rated over timber on 156 ahead of Melon (155), Al Dancer (151), Brewin’upastorm (150) and Fakir D’Oudairies on 149. Cash Back and Notebook were only rated 141 and 135 over hurdles respectively.

In terms of historical form for the British horses for this race there isn't a lot to go off really but two races have featured three Arkle winners in the last 15 years; the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown won by Esprit Du Large and the Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton won by Global Citizen.

With regards to the Irish, their Arkle Chase run at Leopardstown in February witnessed Notebookhold off a determined challenge from Cash Back. That race has historically been the best their best guide featuring ten of their last 12 Arkle Trophy winners. The Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Meeting was also won by Notebook beating Fakir D’Oudairies (will be 7lb worse off with no age allowance here) so Henry De Bromhead’s charge will be bidding to emulate Douvan and Footpad who won both races and then added the Arkle. That Grade 1 on Boxing Day is Ireland’s second-best guide having featured six of their last nine Irish-trained Arkle winners. Five of the last nine Irish-trained winners contested both those Grade 1 races over 2m1f at Leopardstown.

Eighteen of the last 25 winners had contested at least three chase starts.

A huge negative for me is not having run since Christmas, or a week beforehand at Ascot, which is what Esprit Du Large, Put The Kettle On and Brewin’upastorm are attempting to do. If any of those can win then they will be recording the longest absence from racecourse action of an Arkle winner since 1963.

Although 12 of the last 16 winners had won or finished placed at this meeting in the past is a strong steer in its own right, arguably even more interesting is that seven of those 16 winners had finished in the first four in a novice hurdle at this meeting the previous season.

Based upon the above I cant see past the favourite Notebook he ticks a lot of the boxes for sure and would be my selection if pushed for a bigger EW bet i'd be having a small play on Greaneteen at 33/1.

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

Day 1

Champion Hurdle 15.30

Probably the biggest race of the day but ironically for me the most unappealing due to injured horses and not the class of previous years a lot of the stat for the race are skewed with the line up we have.

For any championship race at the Festival, revisiting the previous season’s renewal is the starting point for many and last season’s Champion Hurdle has featured nine of the last 20 winners which is a far better return than in the Gold Cup (five in the last 24 years). However, there will be a new name on the trophy this season with Espoir D’allen very sadly not recovering from a freak accident in the autumn and the 2017 and 2018 winner, Buveur D’Air, having incurred a serious splinter injury in the Fighting Fifth.

The runner-up for the last two years, Melon, looks set to remain novice chasing and as no unplaced horse from the previous year’s running has won for 26 years and a total of 23 of the last 35 winners finished in the first four at last season’s Festival.

JP McManus has a crazy record in this race with 7 previous winners and looking for his 8th and of course most of them trained by Nicky Henderson who also has a great race record. They have leading fancy Epatante who won the Christmas Hurdle but the winner of that doesnt have a great record going into the supreme with only 3 from the last 27 winners doing the Christmas Hurdle and Champion Hurdle double. Mares also don't have a great record in the race with only 4 winning since 1984. But of course she does receive that 7lb allowance which could be key.

Only 2 5 year olds have won this race since 1985 and 10+ year old horses too have a really poor record.

Faugheen took the 2015 Champion Hurdle and in doing so he became just the second horse since Granville Again in 1993 to do so having not run in a recognised trial since the turn of the year. Epatante looks like she will try to emulate him with no plans to run her in a trial after her victory on Boxing Day.

I summary I would be staying away from the 5 and 10 year olds and anything who has not had a run this year.

Pros go to JP McManus and Henderson runners, And anything that placed at the festival last year.

Based upon the above i'll be having a small plays on Silver Streak and Call Me lord both at 25/1 but in honesty im not excited by this race at all this year.

 

[colinsunderland]

Nicked from twitter

Last handicap debutant to win the Kim Muir was in 1985 and the County Hurdle was in 1993.

All 119 runners in last 15 Grand Annuals to have won a handicap chase that season were beaten.

No first season novice has ever won the Coral Cup.

 

[geordiecolin]

Thats some write up you have posted today CW. Cheers for that.
After attending Cheltenham Uni ( University of Gloucestershire ) for 4 years one of my daughters decided to stay and work in the City. She utterly hates the festival,as do most of her friends. The visitors she says are a nightmare what with drunken sexual harrassment and general bad behaviour. I've yet to decide if I will work at the festival this year because I am becoming more and more of a lazy bugger. I much prefer the warmer months

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

Thats some write up you have posted today CW. Cheers for that.
After attending Cheltenham Uni ( University of Gloucestershire ) for 4 years one of my daughters decided to stay and work in the City. She utterly hates the festival,as do most of her friends. The visitors she says are a nightmare what with drunken sexual harrassment and general bad behaviour. I've yet to decide if I will work at the festival this year because I am becoming more and more of a lazy bugger. I much prefer the warmer months

The thing with the write up is its just stat based and then trying to decipher them stats to make a selection but as we all know stats get broken and anomalies happen particularly at the festival

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

Race 3

Ultima Chase 14.50

Five of the last six winners won off handicap marks of 145, 146, 148, 155 and 151 underlining the escalating class factor, not just in this race, but in the Cheltenham Festival handicaps in general. In fact in 2016 the 1-2-3-4-5 carried 11st 5lb+ and the following the year the first five were all rated 148+ so this a race where the class acts are starting to take over. For four straight years between 2008-2011, the winner was rated 142/143 as was Coo Star Sivola two years ago so 142 strikes me as the right cut-off from the bottom half of the weights. However, I feel that there should also a ceiling and three years ago Un Temps Pout Tout (rated 155) became the first winner of the Ultima to be rated over 150 since as far back as 1983 so good luck to connections and backers of the ante-post favourite and top weight, Vinndication, who will need to overcome an official rating of as high as 159 if he is to be successful which would be 4lb higher than any other winner of this handicap, which is too much for my liking. If he can manage that then it would be a performance in the mid-160s akin to be good enough to place in the Gold Cup.

A quirky stat is that seven of the last eight winners ran in headgear and Shantou Flyer was a neck away from making that 8/8 in his first-time visor three years ago. Take particular note of trying headgear for the first time or switching headgear.

Last time out winners have 9 of the last 17 running's of this race.

Coo Star Sivola became only the third winning favourite since 1977 two years ago. However, some shocks aside, it has been a very good race for those hunting up the favourite in the betting with an eye-catching nine second-favourites winning going back to 1984 and 13 winners since the turn of the century could be found in the first four in the betting. Beware The Bear just missed out on that stat last season as the successful 10/1 fifth-favourite.

Six of the last seven winners ran on Trials Day at the course in January. Believe it or not, three of the last nine winners prepped in the Cleeve Hurdle.

J P McManus has owned three winners since 2003 so look out for his silks and especially if trained by Jonjo O’Neill as they combined for two of those successes. O’Neill has won three of the last ten runnings and went close on three more occasions with second-place finishes for Keen Leader, Carbury Cross and Holywell since 2002 so this is clearly a handicap that he likes to target. David Pipe is another trainer who likes to target this race and Un Temps Pour Tout was giving him a third success in the race two years ago. His The Package also placed on three occasions in this race before winning the Kim Muir. Paul Nicholls is 0-23 however after his fancied Give Me A Copper fell last season.

Only two horses aged 11+ have placed from 48 to try since 1997

So I would be stearing clear of horses 11+ rated above 155 or lower than 142 and any first time runners at the track.

I would be looking positively at previous runners in this race and horses with headgear, Horses that ran on trials day in January and particularly if any had a prep run in the cleeve hurdle. The first 4 in the betting particularly the 2nd Fav and anything owed by JP McManus hot trainers are are Jonjo O'Neill and David Pipe.

Based upon all of that I think i'll be waiting until race day before making a selection but if I had to pick a couple now I would say Cepage and Mister Malarkey at 20/1 and 12/1 respectively.

 

[cncas2123]

I backed Epitante yesterday at 3-1 as it has recorded 2 very visually impressive wins this season and has really looked slick at her hurdles, but as usual when i decide to start placing my bets Nicky Henderson comes out and says she's coughed a few times over the last couple of days.....

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

Race 5

Mares Hurdle 16.10

Not even writing it up as impressive as Honeysuckle is and has been Bennie Des Deiux wins case closed if it doesnt go in the champion hurdle if it does Honeysuckle wins.

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

I'll do the last 2 races of day 1 later or tomorrow my eyes hurt now

 

[PMKFRUITPRO]

Good work

 

[cncas2123]

Its nearly time for my favourite week of the year, the Cheltenham Festival. Each year in the run up I like to build up some ante post bets, and this year im starting with a few bets on the first day. I think Henderson will win the first race with Shiskin and the Champion Hurdle with Epatante, but surely the best bet of the whole meeting has to be Benie des dieux in the Mares Hurdle.

Has anyone else got any fancies for Cheltenham?

I am off to a nice start with this, Shiskin @ 11/4 Epitante @ 3-1 and waiting for Benie @ 4/5 but what ever happens I have had a great first day and well ahead with the rest of the week more or less paid for after backing Shiskin again @ 6-1.

 

[Concerned Whistleblower]

I am off to a nice start with this, Shiskin @ 11/4 Epitante @ 3-1 and waiting for Benie @ 4/5 but what ever happens I have had a great first day and well ahead with the rest of the week more or less paid for after backing Shiskin again @ 6-1.

Well done mate