card counting

[uzmaati]

is it really possible to beat the house by card counting in blackjack as shown in movie "21". i have read few articles about card counting and the process of card counting doesnt seem so complex.but will it be really worth to learn card counting. i will really appreciate if pros of blackjack can throw light on it.

 

[RobWin]

is it really possible to beat the house by card counting in blackjack as shown in movie "21". i have read few articles about card counting and the process of card counting doesnt seem so complex.but will it be really worth to learn card counting. i will really appreciate if pros of blackjack can throw light on it.

Absolutely it is, and that team from MIT proved that it could be done and done well as long as you can do it without being obvious about it and then getting caught at it, at which point the casino would most likely bar you from ever coming back in and would also blackball or blacklist you for other casinos to see also as they frequently trade blacklists and photos with one another !!

 

[pokerkeith]

Counting does give you a slight advantage over the house, but not to the extent shown in the flick...

I think if you play by the book, the house has a 2-5 point advantage, but if you're a quality card counter, you get a 2-5 point advantage over the house...

 

[winbig]

is it really possible to beat the house by card counting in blackjack as shown in movie "21". i have read few articles about card counting and the process of card counting doesnt seem so complex.but will it be really worth to learn card counting. i will really appreciate if pros of blackjack can throw light on it.

If you're looking to count online - forget it. 99.9% of all online casinos run off a 'continuous' deck/shoe; shuffling after each hand.

Offline, counting can work wonders, but as others said, be careful. While it's not illegal (as long as you don't use any device to count), they can certainly ban you from playing.

Also, forget about playing single deck in most casinos. With BJ paying 6:5, it's not worth it. Stick to 2 deck which pays the normal 3:2.

 

[Mousey]

It isn't as simple as it often appears in movies or even Discovery Channel documentaries. Like any form of gambling there will be losing streaks. You must have the bankroll to withstand this. Counting cards is not a guarantee of winning, it merely gives you slightly more advantage than playing good standard perfect BJ strategy (which you must first learn before learning to count cards). Does the house stand on soft 17 or not? Do they allow double after the split? How many decks? Do they use continuous shuffle machines? Do they pay 6:5 or 3:2? All has to be considered and your play strategy adjusted accordingly.

And part of the advantage in 'advantage play' (whether VP or BJ play) is in knowing and working with the casino's comp policies. Taking advantage of bounce back cash, free play coupons, free meal and (if you roll high enough) free travel, etc. is all part of the 'game'.

While learning to count cards isn't that difficult. Being able to count cards while ordering a drink, chatting with the drunk sitting beside you, asking the pit boss for a comp, all while keeping up with everyone's cards is not easy.

I strongly suggest that you read, read, read and not just about 'how' to count cards. Max Rubin's Comp City is a good book about casino comps, also Jean Scott, and others.

And has already been pointed out, as regards online BJ and card counting, forget it.

Just my nickel's worth.

 

[winbig]

Well said, Mousey


You're only looking at a 1% +EV when card counting and using basic strategy, so unless you have a big bankroll, you're not really going to make that much money playing low stakes, unless you're playing 10K hands during a session. It's when you deviate from BS you'll notice a huge increase. But, then you're looking at doing the unthinkable - splitting 10's when the count is right, and other 'moronic' plays..which will definitely attract more attention than needed from the floor..

If you're really serious about it, another site worth checking out is

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They conduct seminars, sell DVD's and other stuff concerning card counting and advanced methods...

And it's straight from the horses mouth - Semyon Dukach, a member of the MIT team.

 

[NASHVEGAS]

Counting does give you a slight advantage over the house, but not to the extent shown in the flick...

I think if you play by the book, the house has a 2-5 point advantage, but if you're a quality card counter, you get a 2-5 point advantage over the house...

Depending on several factors including decks,house rules,etc. and assuming your statement"if you play by the book" equates to playing perfect basic strategy, the house advantage generally ranges from approx. .20% to .70% (which I would look for a better game than a game with anywhere close to a .70% house advantage)...as for your second statement, quality card counter is basically an oxymoron as millions claim the ability to do it accurately but prolly only a few thousand can count accurately and even then most can not survive "the heat". If you can do both of the above, you will gain over the long term approx. a 1.0% advantage over the house....not sure where your numbers came from unless you left decimals out but still

 

[winbig]

Depending on several factors including decks,house rules,etc. and assuming your statement"if you play by the book" equates to playing perfect basic strategy, the house advantage generally ranges from approx. .20% to .70% (which I would look for a better game than a game with anywhere close to a .70% house advantage)...as for your second statement, quality card counter is basically an oxymoron as millions claim the ability to do it accurately but prolly only a few thousand can count accurately and even then most can not survive "the heat". If you can do both of the above, you will gain over the long term approx. a 1.0% advantage over the house....not sure where your numbers came from unless you left decimals out but still

With some of the worst rules, the HA can definitely creep up to over 2% under the following conditions:

8 Deck Shoe
Dealer hits S17
No double after split
Double on 9-11 only
Resplit to 3 hands
No resplit/hitting split aces
BJ Pays 6:5

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side note: 6:5 BJ increases the HA a whopping 1.37% alone

 

[NASHVEGAS]

With some of the worst rules, the HA can definitely creep up to over 2% under the following conditions:

8 Deck Shoe
Dealer hits S17
No double after split
Double on 9-11 only
Resplit to 3 hands
No resplit/hitting split aces
BJ Pays 6:5

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side note: 6:5 BJ increases the HA a whopping 1.37% alone

Notice I said "generally" and "stay away" and I see you edited your original post as I was going to also point out exactly what you said in your sidenote that the 6 to 5 pays on BJ accounts for more than the majority of what you state as "creep up"......to all stay away from all BJ's paying 6 to 5, will keep real simple why :: assume 85 hands an hour, one averages a BJ approx. every 21 (how ironic ,lol, but true) hands so that is 4 BJ's per hour, assume flat betting of $10 per hand you will be paid $12 instead of $15 on each BJ so every hour the house keeps $3 for each of your 4 BJ's on average or $12 in total of your $850 bet per hour (for simplicity assume no splits and/or double downs), so keeping it simple that is $12 the house kept out of the $850 you bet in an hour or approx.1.4% added to the house advantage.....on average this $12 will be kept instead of paid to you every hour you play!!!

 

[steinhaug]

As noted card counting does work. However do NOT forget card counting does NOT work online!

 

[NASHVEGAS]

As noted card counting does work. However do NOT forget card counting does NOT work online!

assuming several things among which is in the long term or better said you play enough hands to allow variance to meet positive expectation which generally means among other things it is a full time grinding job....for a multitude of reasons it generally will have little overall affect for the every now and then BandM player but if done correctly it can help one make decisions in deviating from Optimal Basic Strategy like taking insurance (better be able to disguise your thinking like I always take insurance at 12:30 PM,lol)....it can not hurt to count in the short term but one will still need enough hands played to see positive expectation as standard deviation and variance take it's course...most should perfect Basic Strategy playing the game that offers the least house advantage and bank on luck also known as standard deviation!!

 

[winbig]

Yep, it's always good to have an excuse ready if they ask why you're splitting tens, taking insurance for the first time in 2 hours even though the dealer's shown an ace 20 times previously without taking insurance, etc...

And yes, on the table minimum bets, it's always good to throw in a couple of dumb plays every now and then when the cards favor the dealer...lol