Brexit - whats the difference.....

[pinnit2014]

Scots had the vote and the people said no, was a once in a generation vote so no need to address this for a while mate.

They made a typo:

Generation was meant to read 'until ye say aye'

 

[sufferinsilence]

Congrats to all involved, truly a great job.

 

[pinnit2014]

Congrats to all involved, truly a great job.

Next career stop:

Hostage Negotiators.

Our demands?: some French smokes, some Belgian Chocolate and a BMW car.

And some fish.

 

[Playford7]

Next career stop:

Hostage Negotiators.

Our demands?: some French smokes, some Belgian Chocolate and a BMW car.

And some fish.

A m5, french smokes and chocolate seems a good deal, add in some stella and I’ll be happy!

 

[Slottery]

Larry is my new favorite character from Downing Street, didn't know this fellow before today

 

[dunover]

Where you get your info from? From Brexit busses? The ability to separate facts from fiction is a good skill to have.

And one which you should acquire...

 

[irish-ranger]

Scottish Independence,
N Ireland to Dublin,

Depends how bored we get.

Dont u fucking start lol

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Analysis of the actual agreement is now starting to come through, the EU have got all their headline boxes ticked, and have compromised where it suited them. That said, I also agree with this comment, the Conservative Party have done well, and indeed have successfully polished the turd, in a way, they have 'won' Brexit.

What follows now of course is years and years more negotiations with the EU to build upon the framework of this deal, and over time we will align and converge more, but I guess the walking Daily Mails such as dunover will be content that it's all done from a position of UK 'sovereignty'.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Here's just one page of the fishing quotas, note how the numbers don't really change very much over time....

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Final thoughts for this evening as I'm going to stick a film on.

It's good that there's a deal, whatever the crazies said about No Deal being just fine, it would have been a catastrofuck, bad for the EU but even worse for the UK - so I'm glad that the negotiators managed to put something together in a very tight timeframe.

There are quite a few mitigations and allowances to make January 1st not too much of a seismic shock, although it remains to be seen what Customs is going to look like, but I'm hopeful there are sufficient agreements in place to keep air, sea and road travel running in something like a normal fashion, which will also extend to freight of course. There's a school of thought that it might all break down badly early on, that remains to be seen.

So really what we're likely to be looking at is a sort of gradual decline, there are literally no credible economic studies that suggest that the UK will end up anything other than poorer due to Brexit, with all sorts of extra costs and bureaucracy conjured into being where businesses and individuals have not had to deal with such things for decades.

Ultimately things are going to get a bit shitter, over time, for no real benefit, but it's not going to be the calamity that No Deal would have been.

It's preferable to No Deal, it's the best that could have been managed given the red lines on both sides, but as the detail of the agreement is studied, it's clear who got most of what they wanted, but the UK got enough to throw to the headbangers and it'll get through parliament OK (well, especially since Starmer has said Labour will vote for it), even Loonybin Farage has declared 'the war is over' and hopefully we'll see an end to terrible language such as that being used at all.

Overall, meh, could have been worse.

3/10 - Would not Brexit again.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

So then, THE MIDNIGHT SKY on Netflix, directed by and starring that there George Clooney. Takes too long with a disjointed dual narrative to get to admittedly a very effective ending. Not a total disaster but I couldn't go more than 575/1000.

----------------

Back to Brexit, here are all the committees we're signed up to with the EU going forward, this excludes the Withdrawal Agreement and NI Protocol.

Now personally I think this is a good thing, it means we'll be talking to, and working with, the EU on an ongoing basis. For those who dreamed of a 'clean break' and us going it alone in the world, dream on, we are simply too intertwined for that.

What this also means of course is absolutely endless bureaucracy and meetings and debates, the likes of which Brexit was allegedly designed to eliminate, but will in fact magnify. We just have to do it all ourselves now instead of basically having the EU do it for us.

My personal feeling is that now 'BREXIT HAS BEEN DONE', what will actually happen over the years to come, quietly and without fanfare, because no one really cares anymore and everyone got thoroughly fed up with Brexit first time around, is we'll largely align with, and fundamentally co-operate with the EU, because ultimately that works out best for both the UK and the EU. (Well that's not just my personal feeling, a lot of better informed people than me seem to think that's what'll happen.)

I still think the whole thing is a monumental waste of time, effort and money, but we're out of the EU, we've left, transition is coming to an end, and at least we have something to build on. Brexit was always much favoured by older people, the young were very much against it, those young people will grow up, and one day, we'll be back in. Not in 5 years, I doubt in 10 years, but maybe 15-20 years down the line I can see the UK being an EU member again.

 

[Playford7]

So then, THE MIDNIGHT SKY on Netflix, directed by and starring that there George Clooney. Takes too long with a disjointed dual narrative to get to admittedly a very effective ending. Not a total disaster but I couldn't go more than 575/1000.

----------------

Back to Brexit, here are all the committees we're signed up to with the EU going forward, this excludes the Withdrawal Agreement and NI Protocol.

Now personally I think this is a good thing, it means we'll be talking to, and working with, the EU on an ongoing basis. For those who dreamed of a 'clean break' and us going it alone in the world, dream on, we are simply too intertwined for that.

What this also means of course is absolutely endless bureaucracy and meetings and debates, the likes of which Brexit was allegedly designed to eliminate, but will in fact magnify. We just have to do it all ourselves now instead of basically having the EU do it for us.

My personal feeling is that now 'BREXIT HAS BEEN DONE', what will actually happen over the years to come, quietly and without fanfare, because no one really cares anymore and everyone got thoroughly fed up with Brexit first time around, is we'll largely align with, and fundamentally co-operate with the EU, because ultimately that works out best for both the UK and the EU. (Well that's not just my personal feeling, a lot of better informed people than me seem to think that's what'll happen.)

I still think the whole thing is a monumental waste of time, effort and money, but we're out of the EU, we've left, transition is coming to an end, and at least we have something to build on. Brexit was always much favoured by older people, the young were very much against it, those young people will grow up, and one day, we'll be back in. Not in 5 years, I doubt in 10 years, but maybe 15-20 years down the line I can see the UK being an EU member again.

View attachment 147874

Great story bro!

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Here's one of the first full, impartial analysis of THE DEAL. (BIG RED LETTERS OOOOHHHHH.)

It's a longish read but they are condensing down hundreds of pages into a few relatively digestible paragraphs per area, and converting the legal document speak into plain English.

In honesty I'm surprised at some of the ground the EU has given, I really didn't expect them to move an inch on LPF and whilst the provisions are still there, they're not the same as the EU's starting position.

The UK has not done well on fish at all, and don't let Johnson's lies convince you otherwise.

Tariff and quota free access on goods is welcome, although very much in the EU's interests as they have a large trade surplus with us.

On services however (where the UK has a large surplus to the EU), there's really very little, the UK has done poorly there, and for an economy that is 80% services, well, that's not great.

It's also worth noting that this is going to be an organic, evolving agreement, major negotiations come around every five years, which just so happens to synchronise with the EU elections. If you wanted Brexit to mean the UK is out of the EU, then yes, you've got that, but the gravitational pull between the two doesn't vanish overnight, and we'll be negotiating with the EU forever. Literally forever.

There's a lot of 'boring' stuff in there, that's also very important, such as data sharing and security, we'll be renegotiating that on an ongoing basis.

It's strange in a way as both Leavers and Remainers have cause to be content on some level, but discontented in others.

For Leavers the UK is out of the EU, but very much still aligning with the EU in all sorts of key areas and we're basically going to track what the EU does without influencing its decisions, but hey, we're out of the EU and doing it as a SOVEREIGN NATION. Yes we'll take an economic hit, but it's worth it for < insert Daily Mail headline here >.

For Remainers the UK is out of the EU, but we have a Deal which provides a framework upon which to rebuild co-operation and trust over the years, and in many regards we're still going to be doing what the EU does anyway. As a country we'll get poorer, but we've avoided the catastrophe of No Deal.

One could legitimately ask the question what the bloody point of it all is.

Anyway, here it is if you want to read it for yourself:

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

 

[Playford7]

Here's one of the first full, impartial analysis of THE DEAL. (BIG RED LETTERS OOOOHHHHH.)

It's a longish read but they are condensing down hundreds of pages into a few relatively digestible paragraphs per area, and converting the legal document speak into plain English.

In honesty I'm surprised at some of the ground the EU has given, I really didn't expect them to move an inch on LPF and whilst the provisions are still there, they're not the same as the EU's starting position.

The UK has not done well on fish at all, and don't let Johnson's lies convince you otherwise.

Tariff and quota free access on goods is welcome, although very much in the EU's interests as they have a large trade surplus with us.

On services however (where the UK has a large surplus to the EU), there's really very little, the UK has done poorly there, and for an economy that is 80% services, well, that's not great.

It's also worth noting that this is going to be an organic, evolving agreement, major negotiations come around every five years, which just so happens to synchronise with the EU elections. If you wanted Brexit to mean the UK is out of the EU, then yes, you've got that, but the gravitational pull between the two doesn't vanish overnight, and we'll be negotiating with the EU forever. Literally forever.

There's a lot of 'boring' stuff in there, that's also very important, such as data sharing and security, we'll be renegotiating that on an ongoing basis.

It's strange in a way as both Leavers and Remainers have cause to be content on some level, but discontented in others.

For Leavers the UK is out of the EU, but very much still aligning with the EU in all sorts of key areas and we're basically going to track what the EU does without influencing its decisions, but hey, we're out of the EU and doing it as a SOVEREIGN NATION. Yes we'll take an economic hit, but it's worth it for < insert Daily Mail headline here >.

For Remainers the UK is out of the EU, but we have a Deal which provides a framework upon which to rebuild co-operation and trust over the years, and in many regards we're still going to be doing what the EU does anyway. As a country we'll get poorer, but we've avoided the catastrophe of No Deal.

One could legitimately ask the question what the bloody point of it all is.

Anyway, here it is if you want to read it for yourself:

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

View attachment 147996

 

[dunover]

Here's one of the first full, impartial analysis of THE DEAL. (BIG RED LETTERS OOOOHHHHH.)

It's a longish read but they are condensing down hundreds of pages into a few relatively digestible paragraphs per area, and converting the legal document speak into plain English.

In honesty I'm surprised at some of the ground the EU has given, I really didn't expect them to move an inch on LPF and whilst the provisions are still there, they're not the same as the EU's starting position.

The UK has not done well on fish at all, and don't let Johnson's lies convince you otherwise.

Tariff and quota free access on goods is welcome, although very much in the EU's interests as they have a large trade surplus with us.

On services however (where the UK has a large surplus to the EU), there's really very little, the UK has done poorly there, and for an economy that is 80% services, well, that's not great.

It's also worth noting that this is going to be an organic, evolving agreement, major negotiations come around every five years, which just so happens to synchronise with the EU elections. If you wanted Brexit to mean the UK is out of the EU, then yes, you've got that, but the gravitational pull between the two doesn't vanish overnight, and we'll be negotiating with the EU forever. Literally forever.

There's a lot of 'boring' stuff in there, that's also very important, such as data sharing and security, we'll be renegotiating that on an ongoing basis.

It's strange in a way as both Leavers and Remainers have cause to be content on some level, but discontented in others.

For Leavers the UK is out of the EU, but very much still aligning with the EU in all sorts of key areas and we're basically going to track what the EU does without influencing its decisions, but hey, we're out of the EU and doing it as a SOVEREIGN NATION. Yes we'll take an economic hit, but it's worth it for < insert Daily Mail headline here >.

For Remainers the UK is out of the EU, but we have a Deal which provides a framework upon which to rebuild co-operation and trust over the years, and in many regards we're still going to be doing what the EU does anyway. As a country we'll get poorer, but we've avoided the catastrophe of No Deal.

One could legitimately ask the question what the bloody point of it all is.

Anyway, here it is if you want to read it for yourself:

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

View attachment 147996

 

[geordiecolin]

After going to court to prevent a no deal and that a no deal outcome would be like falling off a cliff and the worst possible option now presented with a deal or no deal vote the SNP are going to vote for the no deal option.
Comedy gold.

 

[sufferinsilence]

Old Attachment (Invalid)

 

[ChopleyIOM]

There's a lot of this sort of stuff going on @sufferinsilence

It's what I've referred to previously as 'The Brexit Of Small Things', which is where the world doesn't end overnight (and no one ever said it would), and particularly with a Deal (albeit a very shit, very thin deal), the worst of what would have happened with a No Deal scenario has been avoided.

However, the problems are starting to pile up and some people are feeling them already. Many EU companies have stopped trading with the UK already, many UK businesses (not just the fishermen) are now realising what a nightmare it is to deal with the EU, and there is far more to come.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

There will be many, many more stories like this.

BEFORE:



AFTER.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

The 'Brexit Of Small Things' and not so small things continues. There are shortages of some foodstuffs in NI and it looks like the UK really dropped the ball on something rather dull called 'Rules Of Origin' which is creating an absolute nightmare for UK businesses, and has led to many of them moving their EU hubs to other other countries (ones that are in the EU).

Fishing is turning into a bombsite because guess what, we sell most of the fish we catch to the EU, and it's become a hellscape of red-tape since the end of transition.

There will be lots of this, none of them will be a killer blow, but each will be a wound that will damage the UK's economy and its position in the world. We will be smaller, weaker, and diminished.

Oh yes and individuals and companies alike are finding there are lots more forms to fill in and bills to pay.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Fishing update. UK fishermen are getting utterly wrecked by Brexit, and guess what, there isn't a massive queue of Brits wanting to eat mackerel and langoustines.

Another story that's starting to come through is that freight volumes UK<>EU overall are massively down, we're sending/selling less stuff to the EU, and vice versa, and there's nothing to replace it.

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[Slottery]

You just trim your fish and chips habits a little bit, within few years all happily eat fresh and healthy langoustine salads instead of fish and chips Happily this fishing think if i remember right was just really really small industry so even totally losing it wouldn't make permanent damage for UK (if it's some 1% of GDP)?

 

[ChopleyIOM]

'We can't export anything to the EU, it's a nightmare, we've lost all the stock we've sent this week, Brexit is the gift that just keeps giving, it's going to put me out of business'

 

[mack341]

'We can't export anything to the EU, it's a nightmare, we've lost all the stock we've sent this week, Brexit is the gift that just keeps giving, it's going to put me out of business'

This points to either bad red tape and systems implemented by uk govt, and not at the behest of the EU, or Boris got a crap deal for the uk fishermen.

I thought the IOM did a roaring trade with the EU, selling them its kippers etc, if so I wonder what the paperwork situation is, seeing as you are not in the EU ? [is trade between eu and iom free trade, no tariffs, no paperwork etc...?]

 

[ChopleyIOM]

The fishermen weren't the only group that Johnson threw under the bus, Northern Ireland has been well and truly stuffed too.

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Industry figures speak with derision about Mr Lewis’s denial of that reality. One of the printable responses from a senior businessman is that “anyone who claims the process isn’t cumbersome and complicated hasn’t tried to do it”.

In fact, the first week of the new border has actually largely involved officials turning a blind eye to widespread infringements of the new rules. On Wednesday, Northern Ireland’s chief vet, Robert Huey, was blunt about what happened over recent days. Drawing on the famous words of the 19th century Prussian general Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, he told a Stormont committee: “We had a plan and it didn’t survive first contact with the enemy.”