Blackjack: Do You Use Progressive Betting?

Tailgun

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I'm beginning to suspect all online Blackjack games are crooked. I've just been experimenting with different betting strategies at several different casinos, with varied software (Playtech, Microgaming, RTG).

Regardless of using perfect strategy, with either progressive betting or flat betting, I seem to lose almost every time. And I've noticed with a progressive betting strategy it is common - if not a constant - to lose between four and five of the first seven hands. This consistently puts the player "behind the eight ball" in BJ, seemingly even with perfect basic strategy.

I'm trying different versions of BJ to see which I prefer. Bodog (RTG) doesn't feature Surrender or the ability to hit on a split beyond the first card. Other casinos use 8-deck BJ games or 4-deck with other various playing restrictions.

I've never seen the kind of hands in Atlantic City like I see online. It's common to lose 5 or 6 hands in a row and almost impossible for the player to win even four in a row! In fact, I hardly ever win even three hands in row.

Last night I tried playing with funny money and using progressive betting at four different casinos. Using $2000 'stakes' I lost at three of the four (I was up 1800 at Tropez before quitting). I used the following progressive strategies:

Progressive Betting System: Two-Level

Probably one of the simplest betting systems to use, and still one of the most effective, this two-level system simply gives you two options - minimum or maximum bet. If you lose, bet the smaller amount. If you win, bet the maximum amount. I set my minimum bet at $100 and my maximum bet at $250. Start off with the $100 bet. If you win, make your next bet $250. Keep on betting $250 until you lose, then go back to the $100 bet. This is the most basic progressive betting system.

Progressive Betting System: Five-Level

This is another simple betting system which is based on a 1, 2, 3, 5, back-to-1 progression (Notice: There is no 4). For example, for a $100 minimum bet, the four levels are $100, $200, $300 & $500. With this system, I started with a minimum bet of $100 and progressed to the next level after each winning hand. When I lost a hand, I dropped back down to the minimum bet of $100. Also, if you win four hands in a row, you drop back down to the $100 bet.

How this works is the system is rewarding you during a winning streak, but doesn't kill you when you go on a losing streak. Let's say you lose your first three hands and then win over your next three. Assuming a starting wager of $100, you would be ahead $300 at the end of six hands. If you were betting an equal amount on each hand, you would be even

Breakdown:

Bodog (RTG)
River Belle (Microgaming)
Casino Tropez (Playtech)
Kiwi Casino (Playtech)

What is going on here? I'd like to hear from the resident BJ pros like The Watchdog as to preferred casinos and particular Blackjack games, including which features are 'must have' for playing BJ online.
 
Last edited:

soflat

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I've seen a lot of people say they don't get the bad beats at B&M casinos like they do online.

Personally, I have only played B&M BJ once and I got my ass kicked playing perfect strategy. It was as bad as my worse run online. The dealer sure was cute though.
 

Westland Bowl

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I do use a progressive system but I don't play the same way each and every time. I've heard from elsewhere (I will not reveal the source) that many online casinos use Artificial Intelligence in their random number generators to determine the player's style of play. I don't know if that is true or not but it does seem that way to me.

I've experienced this: If you started out at an online casino winning a bit with a Martingale system, soon you'll start running into alot of long losing streaks and often. If you tend to up your bets after having a winning hand, you'll see alot more win-and-dones where there are many single wins surrounded by a series of losses (and also more losing double-downs will occur the next hand after your won hand). There are many other counter-measures online casinos use against your style of play, whatever it may be.

You'd think that the house advantage is tough enough but with A.I.....geesh! Over the long run, the online casinos still manage to be certified "random" (or "fair") and your win rate is still around the standard 41% (pushes included). After a while, you learn to deal with the counter-measures (and sometimes almost predictable).
 

silcnlayc

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many online casinos use Artificial Intelligence in their random number generators to determine the player's style of play
I have played BJ many years online and as posted in another discussion thread, playing "Perfect" blackjack does not constitute a favorable outcome for the player. I believe that the casinos have some kind of system or AI if you want to call it, that can pick up (or track) your style of play, and the almost guarantee a loss when that player will try to play a "perfect" game, hence, all the losses for this style of play.

I made it known to a few in the other discussion how I would stand on odd times when it called to hit, double when it called to stand etc etc...YOU CAN NOT PLAY PERFECT blackjack against a computer. I feel you need to change up your style few times during play to get ahead, which I have done for years and come away, ahead.

Classic example was last night, I doubled on a 16 and hit a duece and won. I did another double on a 17 hit a 4 and won. I will have to post screen shots of my play if you like, so it's more understandable, and this kind of play has kept me playing slots a lot longer...
 

Tailgun

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Online Blackjack a Bad Bet

I've heard from several different places now the idea of Artificial Intelligence and account-spidering by online casinos to rig games, preventing big winning runs. I'd just hoped it wasn't the case. ANY kind of cheating by the casinos (even the reputable ones!) really kills the experience for me. If they can rig one game, they can rig any game, including that one time I let a really big bet ride...

:icon_evil
 

happygobrokey

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did they rig jack to make aka23 a 20 k profit at 40 casinos? you guys really think they counter-strategise the random shuffles to beat player basic strategy?
 

Reef

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Bet size doesn't change the casinos edge.

Personally, whenever I'm tilting after losing 10 bets+ in a row, I up the bet. Either go big or go home.
 

Tailgun

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Wow! I just read more on this subject and am stunned by my own naivete. There is absolutely no doubt now that all online casinos cheat at Blackjack, regardless of specific software. Each and every casino has engineered subtle but very unique "differences" within the algorithms of their Random Number Generators.

I'm speechless.. and very disappointed. To think of all the money I've wasted thinking the games were fair.
 

bpb

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You guys and your cute little theories are so adorable.

Can't you just accept that you're bound to lose due to the rules of the game? Do you really need to make up stories about casinos implementing sophisticated algorithms to increase their advantage from 1% to 3% (5%? 10%, 20%)

Is it because it's easier to believe that "I lost my money because the evil casino cheated me" rather than "I lost my money because I threw it at a losing proposition even though I knew in advance that it was a losing proposition"?

And if you think it's rigged, then don't play. The absolute worst idea is to start betting more through some progressive strategy, or start deviating from basic strategy. If the casino is cheating you, I guarantee that you aren't going to get around it through "skillful" manipulation of your bets and/or strategy.

I mean, does the the line of thinking go like this?

1) The casino is obviously rigging their game to increase their take
2) The casino is smart enough to rig it in away that nobody has discovered anything strange through rigorous mathematical analysis on a large sample size of play logs
but
3) I'm smarter than both the casino and the analysts because I not only know that they're rigging the game, I can turn the tables on the evil casino by turning their nefarious rigging against them, thus giving me the advantage!
 

silcnlayc

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you guys really think they counter-strategise the random shuffles to beat player basic strategy?
Not "rigged", but as a card counter can "memorize" 95% of the cards dealt (a good card counter that is) , I feel that the casinos have the ability to have the software "memorize" the play action on any single play that is the "correct response of the player" type thing.

I have played for a long time, for many years and have never had a run of blackjacks at a B&M casino such as the ones I have online, so yes, it can be done to the point it isn't quite "balanced".
 

happygobrokey

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so they don't arrange the right cards to draw out on bs players, but they do take measures to ensure they get their fair share when a player is playing 'perfectly'?

i agree that there have been times that making a play against bs worked favourably but to say they're deliberately taking more of an edge...

i played 5000 in bets at vc. after 1000 i was more or less at my starting balance. after 2000, i was down 75 bets. after 3000 i had regained 50 of the 75 bets i was down. after 4000 i had lost back 30 bets. after 5000 i was down only 10 bets overall. i think that's fair, even after people claimed chartwell/vc as being streaky/rigged. also at bet&win i came out very ahead. and i do feel that these sites 'felt rigged' at times, but reutrned to expectation with a larger sample.

ime, progressive betting has only hurt me when doing early w/d forfeitures on big wins and/or martingaleing and those methods of recouping losses only exponentiate the casino advantage. to say the game knew you were martingaling and set you up to lose 8 in a row is ludicrous. streaks are to be expected when the cards are random. no betting strat can overcome the ha and ensure a win, and imo no software preselects the cards to favour the house in any way.

edit: i really hope the game doesn't take into account how much i'm betting. i'll agree i've lost a couple in a row off the bat sometimes when i up my bet, but it only hurts because i increased the amount.
 

Tailgun

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Agreeing to Disagree - If we are even talking about the same thing!

You guys and your cute little theories are so adorable.

Can't you just accept that you're bound to lose due to the rules of the game? Do you really need to make up stories about casinos implementing sophisticated algorithms to increase their advantage from 1% to 3% (5%? 10%, 20%)

Is it because it's easier to believe that "I lost my money because the evil casino cheated me" rather than "I lost my money because I threw it at a losing proposition even though I knew in advance that it was a losing proposition"?

And if you think it's rigged, then don't play. The absolute worst idea is to start betting more through some progressive strategy, or start deviating from basic strategy. If the casino is cheating you, I guarantee that you aren't going to get around it through "skillful" manipulation of your bets and/or strategy.
I'm not debating established strategy here or the fundamentals of betting on Blackjack itself. I'm specifically referring to extralegal strategies employed by online casinos to shift the game in their favor, based on patterns of established player behavior. Not only is this far from far-fetched, it is entirely likely given the loosely-regulated structure of online gaming.

To quote from another thread from the Casinomesiter archives (in which you also vigorously defended the casinos, btw), Westland Bowl wrote:

"You believe the online casino blackjack hands' outcomes are totally dependent on a truly random selection of cards. I believe otherwise. Land-based-wise, I would agree with you provided that the physical cards are thoroughly shuffled before put in the shoe. But we are talking about online gambling, where you can't see the cards. So we are likely not going to agree in any way."

After reading more about this subject, I am becoming more convinced that the only way to beat online Blackjack - as opposed to offline Blackjack - is through a system of Trend Analysis.
 

soflat

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After reading more about this subject, I am becoming more convinced that the only way to beat online Blackjack - as opposed to offline Blackjack - is through a system of Trend Analysis.

There are two ways to beat online blackjack: 1) bonuses, 2) convince people the game is fixed and sell them a system or some Trend Analysis.
 

silcnlayc

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There are two ways to beat online blackjack: 1) bonuses, 2) convince people the game is fixed and sell them a system or some Trend Analysis.
Actually, there is three soflat :D Don't play it at all online ...:thumbsup:
 

Tailgun

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There are two ways to beat online blackjack: 1) bonuses, 2) convince people the game is fixed and sell them a system or some Trend Analysis.

Well, I sure ain't selling anything to anyone. But I am sold on the crookedness of online Blackjack. Sitting there and watching live video of gaming software run it's chartable trends is damning evidence.

Perhaps bonuses are the only way to play; or stay offline altogether...
 

EasyRhino

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I view online Blackjack as an excellent way to get a feel for the wide variance that is possible by playing the game. Much better than a brick and mortar casino. Why? Because the play is so much faster, and you can play so many more hands. You're going to see big winning streaks, big losing streaks, and of course, vast sections where nothing much happens.

I prefer flat betting for three reasons:

1) Progression won't change the house edge.
2) Increasing your bets may make your variance untolerable.
3) When I'm playing blackjack, my goal is to clear the wagering requirement for a bonus as quickly as possible. Changing the bets just wastes time.

And remember, if the casino is cheating (which I believe is quite rare with the established stores), then there is no strategy that can defeat them. Maybe you think you're clever and double down on a 16, but all that rigged software has to do is change the dealer's hole card before exposing it to ensure a loss.
 

tencardcharlie

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Betting systems doesn't work because Real Stupidity, cannot be used to cancel out Artificial Intelligence.

Seriously though. If the casinos used this pointless 'Artificial Intelligengence' stuff, we should have seem some sort evidence by now.
 

Tailgun

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Betting systems doesn't work because Real Stupidity, cannot be used to cancel out Artificial Intelligence.

Seriously though. If the casinos used this pointless 'Artificial Intelligence' stuff, we should have seem some sort evidence by now.
I don't know. I've been running the software to do Trend Analysis, and I sure as hell am seeing evidence.

An hour ago I just finished running 120 hands of Blackjack at a major accredited Microgaming casino. I recorded every single hand and the program indicated with "99.9% certainty" that the Dealer's Up Card was not generated randomly, with 10s on 17% of dealt hands (21/120) and Aces on 8% (9/120). That's one out of every four hands the Dealer started with either a 10 or a bullet.

Sound fair to you?

Interestingly, all program data showed that the Players' Cards were all dealt randomly, with no such mathematical anomalies.
 

happygobrokey

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possibly you mean a card with a value of ten, not just the number 10? four of the thirteen ranks of cards meet this criterion, or nearly 1/3. so ~30% of the cards in the shoe are worth ten.

and 1/13, the proportion of aces in the shoe, works out, amazingly, to 0.076923, or roughly 8%. given any card could appear anytime in any position, should not the dealer's hole card be an ace or ten-value even more often than you've calculated?

so unless the dealer had the number 10 card 17% of the time in your considerably small sample, i am fine with the dealer having that upcard that % of the time.
 

Tailgun

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possibly you mean a card with a value of ten, not just the number 10? four of the thirteen ranks of cards meet this criterion, or nearly 1/3. so ~30% of the cards in the shoe are worth ten.

and 1/13, the proportion of aces in the shoe, works out, amazingly, to 0.076923, or roughly 8%. given any card could appear anytime in any position, should not the dealer's hole card be an ace or ten-value even more often than you've calculated?

so unless the dealer had the number 10 card 17% of the time in your considerably small sample, i am fine with the dealer having that upcard that % of the time.

No, dude. Those were straight 10's, period. Really, you should see the bar graph! I checked the session again before replying to you and count 5 Jacks, 5 Queens and 4 Kings. That's 14 total face cards showing on the Dealer's Up Card out of 120 hands. Which is within statistical probability for the given sample.

I'm not finished; I'd like to do more tests. But the software does show some incredible trends.

After betting outside my range and seeing the house win 6 hands in a row (I went from $3050 down to $1600), I used the software to set my bets. It took a sample of about 40 hands to start seeing the indicators. I started betting when the charts indicated and began hitting regular as rain, shorting my bets when the trends indicated I was in for an upcoming losing trend. It took about 60 hands, but I worked all the way back up to $3150, stopping at the 120 hands mark.
 

happygobrokey

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playing at a kismet group casino today i had two bj's immediately followed by four in a row 11 totals, then five minutes later four bj's in a row. pity it was on $2 bets though.

also seems strange for some reason the number ten was somehow favoured. i would chalk it down to the image of the card is less complex and sends quicker? but add 14 face plus 17 tens out of 120 is a quarter so still not so extraordinary? but why do you care if the number ten or a king comes out and how often did all the other numbers (9s, 6s, deuces) come up?
 

lucky21

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I agree tailgun

i absolutly agree tailgun
online blackjack does not behave like B+m blackjack and every time i suggest this there are those that come out and say no the casino's wouldnt do that not the honest one's anyway.

how much bigger an oxymoron can you find "honest casino's" On several casinos i joined I found that my progressive bet kicked arse for the first few sessions using a list of 3 bets and betting the first and last then the middle i cant remember the name, but after these few sessions the betting method will only work if i mix things up with a lot of random play so i agree with this artificial inteligence idea

There is nothing random about online casino's rngs they are suedo rngs so subject to change just like there terms and conditions are even when they are "certified" if you read the fine print on alot of certificates it states random according to the manufactures specifications.

If they where crooked they wouldnt get customers- well there are so many people trying online casinos and believing they arent crooked that they will allways have a customer base unless they do something very obviously wrong that drives people away.

then if you do happen to win a big unprogrammed win like myself, pirate 21 and others they deem you to be doing something wrong with no recoarse as the are really answerable to know one in the backward countries they exist in

I think your right tailgun the card the dealer gets sometimes is absolutley unbelievable, I still manage to keep my head above water and come out with some drinkin money but i dont bet the sheep station

keep doing your analysis it will be good to hear your results
 

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