Q&A Ask Me Anything about Slots (AMA) 2020 with Trancemonkey

[CasinoNinja]

The answer is really what risk you want to take yourself surely no? Are you willing to take the risk to win at 25% chance?

 

[Kroffe]

For Chilli (and i think most games with a gamble feature in the bonus) the optimal strategy is to always gamble for the top.
Its in Swedish, but thats what it says in the help/paytable.
So i assume the 96.41% rtp is what you get if you make a couple billion spins and always gamble for the top with your bonuses.
Or 96.82% if you only buy bonuses and always gamble for the top.

I know its the same for mystery reels MW and Gonzo megaways, the recommendation is to always hit the gamble.
Those games are alot kinder than chilli tho, because worst scenario is that you end up with 4 spins, so you still get a bonus and some money back even on failed gambles.
On chilli its much more all or nothing with the gambles.

 

[X-Raided]

The answer is really what risk you want to take yourself surely no? Are you willing to take the risk to win at 25% chance?

I agree. I'm also atrocious at math. I personally play scared with gamble features and just don't like being put into a predicament of risking it or nothing.. mostly due to Chilli..

 

[X-Raided]

For Chilli (and i think most games with a gamble feature in the bonus) the optimal strategy is to always gamble for the top.
Its in Swedish, but thats what it says in the help/paytable.
So i assume the 96.41% rtp is what you get if you make a couple billion spins and always gamble for the top with your bonuses.
Or 96.82% if you only buy bonuses and always gamble for the top.

I know its the same for mystery reels MW and Gonzo megaways, the recommendation is to always hit the gamble.
Those games are alot kinder than chilli tho, because worst scenario is that you end up with 4 spins, so you still get a bonus and some money back even on failed gambles.
On chilli its much more all or nothing with the gambles.


View attachment 155002

Thanks Kroffe. I'm curious to know what a mathematically inclined slot developer would do as a player with his knowledge. Also, Chilli is super brutal during feature buys like you've stated and I've gotten burnt so many times that it's just not worth it. Maybe that's why the bonus buys are so small compared to other slots? ?

 

[Kroffe]

Thanks Kroffe. I'm curious to know what a mathematically inclined slot developer would do as a player with his knowledge. Also, Chilli is super brutal during feature buys and I've gotten burnt so many times that it's just not worth it. Maybe that's why the bonus buys are so small compared to other slots? ?

White rabbit is pretty much the only slot i buy features on, and not often.
It usually gives back a decent chunk of the buy cost even on buys that end up losing, and the feature takes a while, and is pretty exciting if you start getting re-triggers.
I have bought the chilli bonus a couple of times, but usually when i have collected a bunch of coins to bring it down to 20-25x stake cost instead of 50x.

The 'optimal stratgegy' is not really worth following imo, since the edge you get is usually not very big, its usually around 0.5% rtp, and you have to consider thats calculated over billions of spins/thousands of bonus buys, which is not something ill ever do anyway.
Since i almost always play for the bonus instead of buying it, i always take the 8 spin.
Same thing on who wants to be a millionaire.
I used to gamble on that one when it first came out, but losing 2-3 bonuses in a row kind of sucks, and you really only need 1 good hit with a 5-6x multiplier during the bonus for it to pay.

I guess part of the reason i play this way is because im always lowrolling and dont really have the budget to go crazy with bonus buys.
Would be easy for me to burn my monthly gambling budget during one night of bonus buys, even on min stake.

 

[X-Raided]

White rabbit is pretty much the only slot i buy features on, and not often.
It usually gives back a decent chunk of the buy cost even on buys that end up losing, and the feature takes a while, and is pretty exciting if you start getting re-triggers.
I have bought the chilli bonus a couple of times, but usually when i have collected a bunch of coins to bring it down to 20-25x stake cost instead of 50x.

The 'optimal stratgegy' is not really worth following imo, since the edge you get is usually not very big, its usually around 0.5% rtp, and you have to consider thats calculated over billions of spins/thousands of bonus buys, which is not something ill ever do anyway.
Since i almost always play for the bonus instead of buying it, i always take the 8 spin.
Same thing on who wants to be a millionaire.
I used to gamble on that one when it first came out, but losing 2-3 bonuses in a row kind of sucks, and you really only need 1 good hit with a 5-6x multiplier during the bonus for it to pay.

I guess part of the reason i play this way is because im always lowrolling and dont really have the budget to go crazy with bonus buys.
Would be easy for me to burn my monthly gambling budget during one night of bonus buys, even on min stake.

Thanks for this Kroffe. This basically sums up my exact current method of play. With Millionaire, first off, it can be a nightmare to land the bonus trigger, then to gamble it for two extra spins? I've gotten burnt lots of times where I end up losing a bonus trying to gambe to 10 free spins instead of taking the 8 after finally landing the trigger after 200+ spins.. how frustrating is that?

Also, same as you, I lowroll, usually between 20p and 40p.. if I'm up big, I boost it to 60p or even 80p. If I'm up super big, the max I bet isn't over 2.00. I tend to stick with higher variance slots though and megaways. I also agree with the limited monthly budget. Same here. Trying to make it last! Lol

As far as White Rabbit, I'll have to try that out. I dislike the game though but love the music.

 

[X-Raided]

The 'optimal stratgegy' is not really worth following imo, since the edge you get is usually not very big, its usually around 0.5% rtp, and you have to consider thats calculated over billions of spins/thousands of bonus buys, which is not something ill ever do anyway.

Yep, that's kinda how I feel too. I've read that the 'optimal strategy' is to gamble features but just cannot comply with this strategy any longer.

This is why I'm curious to hear what Trancemonkey would do in a player's shoes after buying one feature on Extra Chilli and being dealt with 8 spins off the top with the option to gamble.

 

[trancemonkey]

I think you might have read into my message incorrectly. I'm asking what he would do as a player knowing the mathematics behind feature gambles. Maybe he would take the 8 spins on Extra Chilli, or gamble to a certain number of spins.

Also, my question has nothing to do with any other member's posts.

I would make whatever gamble i felt comfortable with... i tend to gamble to 16 and stop most of the time. If i'm quite a bit up, i would risk it for 20 or 24. If i'm a lot down, i would collect the initial offer. Let's assume the odds are as displayed by the graphics (i'm not 100% sure they are, because the free games are worth exponentially more... but that's for another day).

8 to 12 - 50% Win, 50% Lose
12 to 16 - 60% Win, 40% Lose
16 > 20 - 60% Win, 40% Lose
20 > 24 - 60% Win, 40% Lose

So, the chance of getting all the way to 24 free games if you start at 8 is 10.8%
Which means 1 in 9.26 times you buy the feature you should make it to the top
Of course, this is an average.

I have to reiterate, this is assuming that that odds are as per the visual representation which i'm not 100% sure they are...

 

[X-Raided]

I would make whatever gamble i felt comfortable with... i tend to gamble to 16 and stop most of the time. If i'm quite a bit up, i would risk it for 20 or 24. If i'm a lot down, i would collect the initial offer. Let's assume the odds are as displayed by the graphics (i'm not 100% sure they are, because the free games are worth exponentially more... but that's for another day).

8 to 12 - 50% Win, 50% Lose
12 to 16 - 60% Win, 40% Lose
16 > 20 - 60% Win, 40% Lose
20 > 24 - 60% Win, 40% Lose

So, the chance of getting all the way to 24 free games if you start at 8 is 10.8%
Which means 1 in 9.26 times you buy the feature you should make it to the top
Of course, this is an average.

I have to reiterate, this is assuming that that odds are as per the visual representation which i'm not 100% sure they are...

Thanks for the detailed explanation. This was exactly what I was looking for.

Looking forward to the free games being worth exponentially more story!

 

[Kroffe]

I would make whatever gamble i felt comfortable with... i tend to gamble to 16 and stop most of the time. If i'm quite a bit up, i would risk it for 20 or 24. If i'm a lot down, i would collect the initial offer. Let's assume the odds are as displayed by the graphics (i'm not 100% sure they are, because the free games are worth exponentially more... but that's for another day).

8 to 12 - 50% Win, 50% Lose
12 to 16 - 60% Win, 40% Lose
16 > 20 - 60% Win, 40% Lose
20 > 24 - 60% Win, 40% Lose

So, the chance of getting all the way to 24 free games if you start at 8 is 10.8%
Which means 1 in 9.26 times you buy the feature you should make it to the top
Of course, this is an average.

I have to reiterate, this is assuming that that odds are as per the visual representation which i'm not 100% sure they are...

Im not sure if Btg has made any comments regarding how accurate the representation on the wheel is.
I think Blueprint has said their pie gambles are accurate representations of your chances.

I wonder what the chances are to get max spins + max multiplier on their Vikings unleashed megaways.
Would be a bit of a pain in the butt to calculate since they dont give you a percentage, just a pie, and you would have to measure the pie after each gamble since it changes size.

 

[Masquerade67]

I'm not so sure but I'm also puzzled why Blueprint send down the following to the game client for the bonus spin on "The Goonies". I was on "Fratelli's Hideout" from the initial spin and this is what came down when I selected to gamble for 'Skeleton Organ' bonus:

<PlayFeature type=“FEATURE_GAMBLE” finalWin=“6.00”>

<PrevGambleInfo type=“STANDARD” state=“INIT” action=“INIT” bankedWinnings=“0.00” currentLevel=“0” targetLevel=“0” maxGambleLevel=“5” gambleChance=“51.3,30.27,20.6,15.36,7.47” totalWinnings=“0.00” />
</PlayFeature>
</GameResponse>

Why does the client need to know that gambleChance parameter ? There is nothing visual to use those numbers and are they an accurate representation of what the server is doing maths-wise ??

As you can guess - I got a £6 Mystery Win

(I've posted this before elsewhere but it fits in with context of what you were saying above)

 

[neon claws]

Yeah- in one you will lose 10,000x more money. Other than that you will have exactly the same experience on average. If you can prove different statistically, please do so...

Check the reply I was quoting. We're in agreement.

 

[Reelsoffun]

I'm not so sure but I'm also puzzled why Blueprint send down the following to the game client for the bonus spin on "The Goonies". I was on "Fratelli's Hideout" from the initial spin and this is what came down when I selected to gamble for 'Skeleton Organ' bonus:

<PlayFeature type=“FEATURE_GAMBLE” finalWin=“6.00”>

<PrevGambleInfo type=“STANDARD” state=“INIT” action=“INIT” bankedWinnings=“0.00” currentLevel=“0” targetLevel=“0” maxGambleLevel=“5” gambleChance=“51.3,30.27,20.6,15.36,7.47” totalWinnings=“0.00” />
</PlayFeature>
</GameResponse>

Why does the client need to know that gambleChance parameter ? There is nothing visual to use those numbers and are they an accurate representation of what the server is doing maths-wise ??

As you can guess - I got a £6 Mystery Win

(I've posted this before elsewhere but it fits in with context of what you were saying above)

That's because we already know that the gamble wheel isn't representative, hence the parameters?

 

[The Reel Story]

Im not sure if Btg has made any comments regarding how accurate the representation on the wheel is.
I think Blueprint has said their pie gambles are accurate representations of your chances.

I wonder what the chances are to get max spins + max multiplier on their Vikings unleashed megaways.
Would be a bit of a pain in the butt to calculate since they dont give you a percentage, just a pie, and you would have to measure the pie after each gamble since it changes size.

I vaguely remember Nick Robinson saying (when he was on stream with NickSlots) that the wheels on Chilli were accurate representations. The VOD probably still exists on YouTube somewhere.

 

[colinsunderland]

I vaguely remember Nick Robinson saying (when he was on stream with NickSlots) that the wheels on Chilli were accurate representations. The VOD probably still exists on YouTube somewhere.

I'm almost certain it was stated on here too, as I remember it at that time, and I don't watch streamers so certainly didn't hear it from there.

 

[Slotplayer83]

Which means 1 in 9.26 times you buy the feature you should make it to the top

Really you make it sound like the gamble feature is a complete random set; while at point of buying the bonus it's already pre-determined the outcome. You know i can LIVE with a loss; loss or 2, 3, 4 5 6 7 8 , even over 3 different sessions. I just cant live with the idea that i'm playing on a slot now these days where the top feature is simply gimped out, the overal chance of winning the 24 spins is just drastically then compared to one or even 2 years ago. It started at the beginning of this year really.

I'm not going into argument. That game is rigged. Or at least it's set on a lower volatility for the casino. Either way or the other, ive kind of cured from buying and gambling bonus games. It's so frigging toxic.

You can still have a enjoyable game and no you dont have to shoot for the top all the time. But that was the objective. I was prerared to take some loss (as you can see) and i attempted it over various sessions. But you here saying now how random the gamble feature is? Lol. It booted me straight to zero the moment i press buy.

 

[paul7388]

Really you make it sound like the gamble feature is a complete random set; while at point of buying the bonus it's already pre-determined the outcome. You know i can LIVE with a loss; loss or 2, 3, 4 5 6 7 8 , even over 3 different sessions. I just cant live with the idea that i'm playing on a slot now these days where the top feature is simply gimped out, the overal chance of winning the 24 spins is just drastically then compared to one or even 2 years ago. It started at the beginning of this year really.

I'm not going into argument. That game is rigged. Or at least it's set on a lower volatility for the casino. Either way or the other, ive kind of cured from buying and gambling bonus games. It's so frigging toxic.

You can still have a enjoyable game and no you dont have to shoot for the top all the time. But that was the objective. I was prerared to take some loss (as you can see) and i attempted it over various sessions. But you here saying now how random the gamble feature is? Lol. It booted me straight to zero the moment i press buy.

Just wondering why you feel you need to gamble the free spins.

All biggest hits personally have been on 8 spins.

Most of the biggest screenshots posted by members on here have also been from the 8 spins.

It is like Bonanza . Does not matter how many free spins you start with. If it pays big on first few spins afterwards it is dead spin after dead spin.

 

[Slotplayer83]

Lol what are you talking about. My best win on 24 spins years ago on the same bet 24k. I really would you to see any of you accomplish the same at 8 spins.

 

[paul7388]

Lol what are you talking about. My best win on 24 spins years ago on the same bet 24k. I really would you to see any of you accomplish the same at 8 spins.

Whatever. It was a simple question.

But anyway not sure what size bet it was but even if it was 10 euro 24k would only be 2400x stake win and seen many much higher x stake wins.

Anyway nice of you to boast about your 24k win. By sounds of it not much of a boast since you seem to be losing way more now.

 

[trancemonkey]

Really you make it sound like the gamble feature is a complete random set; while at point of buying the bonus it's already pre-determined the outcome. You know i can LIVE with a loss; loss or 2, 3, 4 5 6 7 8 , even over 3 different sessions. I just cant live with the idea that i'm playing on a slot now these days where the top feature is simply gimped out, the overal chance of winning the 24 spins is just drastically then compared to one or even 2 years ago. It started at the beginning of this year really.

I'm not going into argument. That game is rigged. Or at least it's set on a lower volatility for the casino. Either way or the other, ive kind of cured from buying and gambling bonus games. It's so frigging toxic.

You can still have a enjoyable game and no you dont have to shoot for the top all the time. But that was the objective. I was prerared to take some loss (as you can see) and i attempted it over various sessions. But you here saying now how random the gamble feature is? Lol. It booted me straight to zero the moment i press buy.

No outcome is determined at the point you are buying the bonus...whether you believe that or not is up to you

 

[Slotplayer83]

Whatever. It was a simple question.

But anyway not sure what size bet it was but even if it was 10 euro 24k would only be 2400x stake win and seen many much higher x stake wins.

Anyway nice of you to boast about your 24k win. By sounds of it not much of a boast since you seem to be losing way more now.

Great for you. Where the wins from streamers? You get off watching streamers?

 

[paul7388]

Great for you. Where the wins from streamers? You get off watching streamers?

No i get off laughing at smart arsed tossers like yourself losing on gambles on Chilli then greeting it is rigged.

 

[interlog]

No outcome is determined at the point you are buying the bonus...whether you believe that or not is up to you

But that doesn't apply to all provider though? I know for a fact that with certain Red Tiger games the total amount won during a bonus game is already determined because the balance updates as soon as the feature starts.

 

[Halvor]

But that doesn't apply to all provider though? I know for a fact that with certain Red Tiger games the total amount won during a bonus game is already determined because the balance updates as soon as the feature starts.

But none og those got gambling features. RT bonus rounds are decided when the actual gameplay initiate.

 

[The Reel Story]

But that doesn't apply to all provider though? I know for a fact that with certain Red Tiger games the total amount won during a bonus game is already determined because the balance updates as soon as the feature starts.

It depends on the game provider, but the only time a game MUST go back to the RNG is when there is a real choice to be made (not a fake choice like picking pots or whatever). Whether to gamble or whether to take your spins is a REAL choice, and so the game must go back to the RNG.

With Chilli (and BTG in general) they send every spin to the RNG (as to a number of providers) regardless of whether there is a real choice, however there are many providers who will determine the entire result of a spin (initial win, whole bonus round etc, assuming there is no real choice) at the point the spin button is pressed, send it all to the game client and then just let the game client play it out.