Are Bet365 cheating on their game(s)?

thelawnet

Dormant account
Here are the 'table games'

on Bet365's Games site.

Note the game 'Three of a Kind'

The rules for this game are here

Basically 3 cards are dealt, each is either a 9, T, J, Q, K or A, and the object of the game is to get 3 cards the same, e.g., 3 9s. The cards are drawn from three separate decks of six cards, and having discarded a given card, it can be drawn again.

There is no strategy - after the deal, if two cards match, and the 3rd is different, the third is discarded and drawn again. If all three are the same, all 3 are held, and if all three are different, then no cards are held and all three cards drawn again.

The game pays only for 3 of a kinds, according to the following paytable:

9's - 3
10's - 5
j's - 8
q's - 10
k's - 25
a's - 100

Now it doesn't take a genius to figure out that with six cards to choose from, the odds of any given 3 of a kind on the deal should be 1 / (6*6*6) = 1/216. That means the hand '3 Aces on the deal' pays 100/216 = 0.46. Quite a lot.

It doesn't take much more genius to figure out that the odds of 2 As on the deal is:

1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 +
1/6 * 5/6 * 1/6 +
5/6 * 1/6 * 1/6

Which is obviously 15/216.

So the odds of getting 2 Aces on the deal is 15/216. And if you have 2 Aces on the deal, then the odds of getting a third is 1 in 6 (discarded cards can be redealt).

Which pays 100. So the payout for 2 Aces on the deal is 15/216 * 1/6 * 100 = 1.157

Now obviously there's a big problem here. We expect the total payout of the game to be less than 1.

But we find that the payout for the hand '2 Aces on the deal' ALONE is already more than 1.

So either bet365 are going to lose money like they're going out of business.

OR.....

They are cheating.

A quick test session shows it's the latter.

I took the first six hands where I was dealt three different cards on the deal, and counted the number of Aces. I was playing 25 lines, so that's 75 cards per draw. In six hands, therefore, 450 cards are dealt, and you'd expect 450/6 = 75 of those to be Aces.

How many did I get? 24. The chances of this being from a fair deck is 1 in 4,498,393,408,389.

Quite plainly the game cheats.

This is disgraceful and the game needs to be pulled and all losses refunded, the game is cheating by design, this is not a programming error, they designed it to cheat the player, this is obvious from the paytable.

Also in breach of their Regulator's Code of Practice, which states:

'All licence holders are required to publish their rules where they are visible and accessible to all those who visit or use their facilities for gambling. ‘Rules’ will be regarded as the terms and conditions of the gambling as well as the rules by which any particular game or activity has to be undertaken.'

'Licence holders are required to expect that where customers may reasonably assume rules to be well established, understood or unchanged, but they are not, due emphasis will be given to those variant rules. Licence holders should monitor customer interpretation of rules and be prepared to make appropriate amendments where misunderstandings occur'

'A licence holder should not implement game designs or features that may reasonably be expected to mislead the customer about the likelihood of particular results occurring.'

GrandMaster

Dormant account
Well spotted. I played 50 games in free mode, here is the list of initial hands I got:
9XJ, 999, J99, J9A, JX9, JXQ, XXK, JKX, 9KX, JX9, 9J9, XJ9, J99, 9Q9, QX9, KQ9, J99, QXQ, K9A, 9XK, 9JQ, XQQ, J9Q, Q99, 9JX, JXQ, J9X, A99, JJX, 99J, 9QJ, KXJ, JX9, 9XX, X9X, X9K, 9XA, K9X, QJJ, J9K, JXK, XXJ, 9AJ, J9X, J9J, 9JX, QXJ, AXJ, A9J, 9X9 (X means 10).
The frequencies of the cards are
9: 48, X: 34, J: 35, Q: 15, K: 11, A; 7. The chi-squared value is 53.2. Under the assumption that the cards are drawn with equal probability and independently, the probability of a chi-squared value of 53.2 or higher is about 0.0000000003. Therefore I am satisfied that the cards are not drawn with equal probability.

Nifty29

Dormant account
Nice work gentlemen.

Now THIS is the kind of cheating claim I can believe I.e. coupled with stats and odds and informed analysis. Keep it up

chayton

aka LooHoo
webmeister
PABnonaccred
CAG
Is this a game that's unique to Bet365 or is it something available elsewhere?

Pinababy69

RIP Lisa
The math that you guys are using is way above my own limited skills..but I know that thelawnet is not one to cry foul/cheating, if he wasn't sure. And with GM being a Math Professor, I have full confidence that what you both say is true.

To echo Nifty....THIS is exactly the type of cheating claim that I can get behind...one that is backed up with facts and math...not one based on limited play and/or "a feeling".

Well spotted indeed. And has anyone contacted the Wiz? Also, Bryan should be informed of this thread, as Bet365 is accredited here, and as such, owes him an explanation.

KasinoKing

WebMeister & Slotaholic..
webmeister
PABnonaccred
CAG
MM
Here are the 'table games'

on Bet365's Games site.
Note the game 'Three of a Kind'

The rules for this game are here
I checked that "Rules" page - and I can't see where it says either that the cards are drawn from 6 decks - or that they are drawn randomly with an equal chance of each card being drawn.
Where did you get these two key bits of information from?

KK

thelawnet

Dormant account
I checked that "Rules" page - and I can't see where it says either that the cards are drawn from 6 decks - or that they are drawn randomly with an equal chance of each card being drawn.
Where did you get these two key bits of information from?

KK

I didn't say they were drawn from six decks. I said there are three separate decks of six cards.

You can see during play that there is only one card of each denomination.

9h
Tc
Jd
Qs
Kd
Ac

Also that the cards re-appear on the draw.

Now if there was for instance a 9s, 9c as well, but only the Ac, that would be fair enough.

But the game clearly represents that the 9 is only the 9h, the T only the Tc, etc.

Considering this is a table game, it's not justifiable.

GrandMaster

Dormant account
I checked that "Rules" page - and I can't see where it says either that the cards are drawn from 6 decks - or that they are drawn randomly with an equal chance of each card being drawn.
Where did you get these two key bits of information from?

KK
The evidence clear shows that the cards are not drawn with equal probabilities, this is an important feature of the game, so the rules are misleading by omission. The blackjack rules don't state either that cards have equal probabilities, would you consider it acceptable if low cards dealt were dealt with a higher probability at the expense of 10s, Js, Qs and Ks?

Mousey

Ueber Meister Mouse
I checked that "Rules" page - and I can't see where it says either that the cards are drawn from 6 decks - or that they are drawn randomly with an equal chance of each card being drawn.
Where did you get these two key bits of information from?

KK

I understand squat about the math, so I thank the math heads! :notworthy

If it's a table/card game and the cards are NOT drawn with equal probability, it's a slot game. Right? And should be noted as such.

spoton

Dormant Account
webmeister
Couldn't agree more with grandmaster. One should be able to assume that the cards are dealt randomly from the deck(s) of cards without it being written in the same way one should be able to asume the clothes sold in the levis store are real, unless one play at a casino being run by some mobsters or goto the levis store on the streets in Turkey.

Good find guys, will be fun to what excuses bet365 comes up with.

KasinoKing

WebMeister & Slotaholic..
webmeister
PABnonaccred
CAG
MM
I didn't say they were drawn from six decks. I said there are three separate decks of six cards.
Ooops - my mistake - I mis-read that.

But playing devils advocate again, how do you know each deck has only 6 cards in it?
That isn't stated in the rules either!

Just so there is no mis-understanding - I'm not defending Bet365 and I agree that this game is VERY misleading for players as it does appear to be more like a slot than a traditional table game. All I'm saying is that it doesn't do something which the rules say it should do. We would all ASSUME it would be a random draw with all cards equal - but that doesn't make it so.

KK

Simmo!

Paleo Meister (means really, really old)
thelawnet said:
The cards are drawn from three separate decks of six cards

KK just asked what I was going to: "how do you know each deck has only 6 cards in it?"

It's a good spot, but it strikes me as so obvious a mistake that a deck can't possibly only have 6 cards so wherever it says that is clearly misleading. In fact even if they didn't say that, if what you say about each card being of one specific suit is correct (no reason not to believe you - just never played it) then it's arguably misleading anyway because there is more than 1 card of the same suit in any given deck which obviously doesn't happen.

Casinomeister

Forum Cheermeister
Staff member

I haven't looked at the game (or at this thread too closely) as of yet; is this a Bet365 exclusive game, or is this game common throughout the Playtech platform?

BustedFlush

Account suspended until further notice
The OP got his odds a bit wrong when he stated "You don't have to be a genius to work out 1/6x1/6x1/6 (216-1)was the odds of getting 3 of a kind" - that would be correct if you nominated say '3 aces' in advance, but the actual odds are 1/1x1/6x1/6 (36-1) i.e. only the last 2 should be the same as the first for ANY 3 of a kind win. You would expect randomly 1 or 2 3 of a kind deals in 50 goes, 3 in a 100 goes.

KasinoKing

WebMeister & Slotaholic..
webmeister
PABnonaccred
CAG
MM
I went and tried this game in "free-play" mode for 5 minutes.
It is immediately extremely obvious that the cards drawn are very heavily weighted in favour of the lower numbers - you don't need to record or analyse any stats!

One other thing to consider is that this game appears under the "Games" tag and not under the "Casino" tag.
It could be argued that this section would include AWP games like this - though Bet365 do confuse the issue by also including loads of "regular casino games" like BlackJack & Roulette in this section.

It's all a bit of a mess really!

KK

spoton

Dormant Account
webmeister
I asked bet365s customer service rep about it. He told me it worked like a table game, and guaranteed it was 100% random like all their games. He couldnt guarantee any refunds though if i played it and it was rigged.

GrandMaster

Dormant account
The OP got his odds a bit wrong when he stated "You don't have to be a genius to work out 1/6x1/6x1/6 (216-1)was the odds of getting 3 of a kind" - that would be correct if you nominated say '3 aces' in advance, but the actual odds are 1/1x1/6x1/6 (36-1) i.e. only the last 2 should be the same as the first for ANY 3 of a kind win. You would expect randomly 1 or 2 3 of a kind deals in 50 goes, 3 in a 100 goes.
He wrote "the odds of any given 3 of a kind", so he was correct.

BustedFlush

Account suspended until further notice
He wrote "the odds of any given 3 of a kind", so he was correct.

The 'given' clinches it!! My mistake I didn't notice that word as I encounter that (would be) mistake regularly when people mention odds, viz-a-viz overlooking the 1/1 part.

It appears we are all wrong, as it clearly isn't 216/1 on that game as the lower numbers are heavily weighted. Probably 50/1 for the 9's and 1000+ for aces.....

thelawnet

Dormant account

I haven't looked at the game (or at this thread too closely) as of yet; is this a Bet365 exclusive game, or is this game common throughout the Playtech platform?

The Bet365 games site is not the same as the casino site, and none of the games are powered by Playtech.

That said, I think it is their own game, which might explain why it is so 'special'.

Simmo!

Paleo Meister (means really, really old)
The Bet365 games site is not the same as the casino site, and none of the games are powered by Playtech.

Actually some of them are but I agree I don't think this one is.

Can you point us at the place where it says each deck only has 6 cards thelawnet? Seems a pretty crucial piece of the jigsaw IMO.

Cheers,

Simmo!

rainmaker

I'm not a penguin
The Bet365 games site is not the same as the casino site, and none of the games are powered by Playtech.

That said, I think it is their own game, which might explain why it is so 'special'.

Hey

I think the game "three of a kind" is made by
(part of the Lottomatica Group).

Maybe

rainmaker

I'm not a penguin
.

From their (GTECH G2) "games library" :

Simmo!

Paleo Meister (means really, really old)
.

From their (GTECH G2) "games library"

I've renamed the thread sightly to make it a question rather than a statement for 2 reasons:

1) The game appears to be from a 3rd party provider, not Bet365
2) We've yet to see where it states each deck has only 6 cards

(If and when it's proven I'll gladly change it back.)

Nifty29

Dormant account
Do we know the advertised RTP?

Would it make a difference if the actual payback was around 98%? Even if it was artificially produced? After all, you would still have a decent payback at the end of the day.

thelawnet

Dormant account
I've renamed the thread sightly to make it a question rather than a statement for 2 reasons:

1) The game appears to be from a 3rd party provider, not Bet365
2) We've yet to see where it states each deck has only 6 cards

(If and when it's proven I'll gladly change it back.)

Really?

1) Ok it is, but that doesn't change the fact that they are responsible for offering it. If Walmart sell Chinese cancer-causing toys, or something like that, the responsibility is still with Walmart. This makes no difference at all. Also, best I can see, this games is unique to Bet365, and it's done in their colours and is quite likely designed FOR them.

2) Meh. It doesn't matter how many cards are in the deck. There could be 6, 66, 196, it makes no difference to the fact that you cannot weight cards (not without cheating). Let's imagine this was done on the street, by those men with shills and a fast sales patter. They show you a 9, T, J, Q, K and A, and tell you you get £100 if you get 3 As. What they don't tell you is that there are (for example) 12 9s, 10 Ts, 8 Js, 6 Qs, 4 Ks, and only 2 As in each deck. Is this game a scam? Of course it is.

There are no casino games where there are a different number of each denomination. It's cheating, no two ways about it.

You might as well say that a dice game using a dice with two ones on it is not cheating, because they never said it was a fair dice with numbers one-six on, you just assumed it. There is no precedent, no justification for weighting cards. NONE.