Anyone good in stochastics?


Dormant account
Feb 14, 2004

I just played at Gaming Club for the first Time. I deposited 150 and got a bonus of 180, wich is really a nice offer. For filling the wagering requirements I thougt to choose Blackjack and since the software has this Autoplay function I used a stake of 2$.
I changed the strategy-table on 3 positions: split wit 8,8 on dealers ten; Hit with Soft 18 on Dealers 10 and Stand on Soft18 on Dealers 8.
I think this is a good strategy for european BJ, isnt it?

I started the Autoplay and after 900 Games, my Balance sunk from 330$ to 180. Thats a loss of 75 Units in 900 Games, about 8%!!!
Then I doubled my stack because I thought I have to have luck now, but again I lost 30 Units in 600 Games. Another 5%!

After that, I played manually with 10$, first won, then lost it all.

I do not really think that the Software is cheating, because when I played with 10$, I had the balance at 250$ again, but maybe the Autoplay isn't the best choice. What do you think?

Is there anyone good in stochastics who knows how likely it is to loose 8% in 1000 Games? The normal percentage should be around 0,5%-1%.

Greets! Dominik


Ueber Meister
Jan 21, 2004
You should not split 8,8 vs 10 and you should also double on 9 vs 2.

You are about 2 standard deviations below the expected value. The probability of losing this much or more is about 2.5%.