Almost incredible BJ session

Janek12

Dormant Account
Joined
Jun 24, 2007
Location
Europe
I thought I would share this experience:

I claimed the 32Red monthly reload bonus and started to play Vegas SD BJ.

I meticulously play according to the ideal strategy table (I even check the table for every different version of BJ at MG casinos because as you all know there are some differences.)

Guess what: I LOST THE FIRST 13 HANDS IN A ROW! IT WAS LIKE A CURSE! :confused:

And by checking the Playcheck statement, I found out that in the first 49 hands, I encountered 13 wins and 36 losses.

I guess the odds of this happening must be quite astronomical... :eek: :)

Proudly I must say I managed to stay on top; based on previous experience, I already expect that the dealer will win much more often in on-line BJ than the player so I adapt my strategy accordingly ;).

It might be that psychological effect of remembering the bad streaks and taking the good streaks for granted but I can't help having the feeling that the dealer quite often has 3-5 wins in a row, while this happens very rarely on the player's side... I know I am rambling again but I like playing BJ online very much so I guess I will just have to put up with this and just adapt the MM strategy... as I wrote above. :)

If any expert would want to calculate the odds of such 49 hands happening, I would be very grateful, just out of curiosity.
 

Janek12

Dormant Account
Joined
Jun 24, 2007
Location
Europe
OK, to be fair, I have to say I have just had 17 wins out of 21 hands, i.e. 4 losses and 17 wins, including 6 consecutive wins; the variance in BJ is probably far greater than I would want to admit to myself, even after playing it on-line for more than a year now. :rolleyes:
 

Jufo

Dormant Account
Joined
Sep 21, 2007
Location
Finland
Well, I had won on MG slots and had a starting balance of 500$. I thought I will play Single Deck BJ a little bit because of its low house edge. I played only 1-5$ bets but still I busted that 500$ very quickly. Similar thing has happened numerous times before. If I start with a balance of 25$, 9 times out of 10 I will bust before reaching 50$ even though both outcomes should be almost as likely. My experiences on MG blackjacks are so bad, I think I will have better odds playing slots.

For Janek12, try Boss Media single deck blackjack. It feels like a totally different game with the odds.
 

Janek12

Dormant Account
Joined
Jun 24, 2007
Location
Europe
Thank you very much Jufo for your answer and for your tip - I have already discovered the Boss Media SD BJ, too, and I agree with you that it is a very fine version of BJ.
 

aka23

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
odds of such 49 hands happening, I would be very grateful, just out of curiosity.
The odds of losing 13 hands in a row is about (0.479)^13 = 1 in ~14,000.
The odds of losing 36 out of 49 hands is about 1 in 1000.
The odds of having no pushes in any of those 49 hands is about (1-0.0878)^49 = 1 in ~100
 

Janek12

Dormant Account
Joined
Jun 24, 2007
Location
Europe
Thank you very much aka23. So the odds of this are not so astronomical after all... :) ... and one must expect it to occur sooner or later after playing several thousands of hands... :)
 

kakata

Banned User - hyper flamming
PABaccred
PABnonaccred
PABnoaccred
Joined
Dec 2, 2006
Location
miami fl
I dont usually play BJ cuz I find it boring.
I have to say thou,the results I have had at club world are by far the best Ive experienced in years.
 

babs7262

Banned User
Joined
Oct 9, 2006
Location
PA
Jane?

Are you by any chance JaneKnee(or something to that effect) from a game called Word Riot...like GAC or HC1 rooms?

If so, this is the Babsinator (username from riot)

Im asking because we had a gal in our group and she left us for BJ, and her name was JaneKnee and your name is JaneK. This would be cool if it's the same person, you were nice and your gonna like this site if you are the same person
 

Janek12

Dormant Account
Joined
Jun 24, 2007
Location
Europe
Dear Babs, I am not that Jane; I am not even a woman; my posts were not macho enough to make that obvious? :)

Janek in Czech is approximately the equivalent of Johnny but it is also used as a designation of a person who acts somewhat erratically and chaotically and impulsively - and that's what I am inclined to do in on-line casinos (lose my nerve :)) - hence my nickname.

As for this forum, I am a regular reader and I find it really informative here and appreciate the time and energy you frequent posters invest in your posts to share useful information with others.

And, of course, I generally like the company of people here, decent and nice and helpful, IMO. :)
 

ugaboga

Dormant Account
Joined
Sep 8, 2007
Location
Australia
Dear Babs, I am not that Jane; I am not even a woman; my posts were not macho enough to make that obvious? :)

Janek in Czech is approximately the equivalent of Johnny but it is also used as a designation of a person who acts somewhat erratically and chaotically and impulsively - and that's what I am inclined to do in on-line casinos (lose my nerve :)) - hence my nickname.

As for this forum, I am a regular reader and I find it really informative here and appreciate the time and energy you frequent posters invest in your posts to share useful information with others.

And, of course, I generally like the company of people here, decent and nice and helpful, IMO. :)


Nice to see a member from Czech Republic :notworthy

I'm a Slovan Liberec fan :) We haven't been doing too well these few years, compared to our runs in the UEFA cup back around 2003. Would be good to see Jiri Stajner back in the Liberec squad again!
 

PSB

Dormant account
Joined
Nov 6, 2007
Location
outside Europe
The odds of losing 13 hands in a row is about (0.479)^13 = 1 in ~14,000.
The odds of losing 36 out of 49 hands is about 1 in 1000.
The odds of having no pushes in any of those 49 hands is about (1-0.0878)^49 = 1 in ~100

this assumes doing thousands if not millions of trial (i.e. getting dealt hands) I assume?
reason I mention it .. is I once got an RNG email from a casino saying I couldn't base my results on some 40 odd hands when I was convinced it was duped
 

Avatar73

Dormant Account
Joined
Apr 15, 2007
Location
UK
this assumes doing thousands if not millions of trial (i.e. getting dealt hands) I assume?
reason I mention it .. is I once got an RNG email from a casino saying I couldn't base my results on some 40 odd hands when I was convinced it was duped

? No, I think you have the stats confused. They are based on the EXACT 13 hands or whatever in a row.

The way it works, is you play X number of hands. Then you go... pants, that was awful, was I unlucky or duped? You then work out the probability of getting X hands, and see it is say 1 in 1000, and realise you are probably unlucky. It means, statistically, you should see a lot of play before getting 13 losses in a row again! But if it happens often, then the game could be rigged.


In your case, you would take your 40 hands (say you lost 30). Perform the maths.. what is the liklihood of this happening? And then if it isn't 1 in millions it's probably bad luck.

For example, the wizard tested a play for fun site, and got 133 reds and 67 not reds in 200 spins of roulette... which the maths says is 1 in millions and so almost certainly biased. With something like that you only need 200 spins to test. But for an "unlucky" run, you can work out how unlucky you are, but to prove you have been cheated, does indeed take severl 000s+ hands.
 
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