A question for someone with more maths skills than me!

[Gremmyboy]

Posted here because wasn't sure which section it belonged in?

I noticed when I went to my local pub that all the machines have little counters on them.

. Money in
. Money out
. Total money in
. Total turnover


VWM had a post that basically explained that the fruities will pay out if you knock back enough wins because they will try to push their return to player up to what the program is programmed to payout.

Question........................

Can I apply this same theory to the pokies at the pub by reading these numbers from the counters?
I took notice last time i was at the pub of the numbers and focused on what I believe to be the relevant two numbers, 'Money In' and 'Money Out'.
I know that the pokies are set to pay out at 86% RTP.
Is there a formula I can use so that I can better select a pokie to play(Easy enough for me to do on my phones calculator)?

As an example....
'Money In' counter reads $80,000 has been put in to the machine.
'Money Out' counter reads $20,000 has been paid out.
The machine needs to pay 86% RTP.
How do I calculate what RTP it is sitting on at the time I get to the machine if these numbers were used?

I just assumed to myself that if I sat at a machine that has a reading of $80,000 in and $20,000 out I'd have a better chance than at a machine that has $80,000 in and $78,000 out.

I would love opinions on if this is a valid process i could use to choose a machine and what the formula would be and also would love to know if it wouldn't work and for what reasons.

Am truly curious!

Cheers
Gremmy

(example formula: r(t)=(x(t),y(t),z(t)) = (More money for Gremmy(t)).






.

 

[aceking123]

hi ,mostly those counters are used purely for cashiers from where the machines are on hire from , there are even more counters at the base of the machine to where the cash ( coins ) are kept these can tell you far more than those above as , they could well be just refill counters of every penny refilled , its hard to say but if you open the machine up on a fruity , theres a mother baord which can be switched to various rtp , i still have a fruit machine in my garage ( grand slam £500 / £1000 it can be switched , this has been set to a payout of 82% rtp but i can change this higher & lower , so its hard to say i would of thought that that shows nothing realy.

 

[Gremmyboy]

I should clarify that I don't mean fruit machines.(Bad analogy using the VWM thing)
I mean normal random pokies/slots.

I just wanted the equation to work out the difference between what has gone in to the machine versus was has been paid out and what percentage of the RTP the machine was currently sitting at?

The numbers on the top are the actual coins that have been put in and then paid out as the refills are done through the software which I have witnessed. I have also sat and put coins in and watched the counter tick over 1 place for each coin I put in to the machine and have seen it clicking away like crazy when a big win has been paid and then a different meter has clicked away as you take the coins out.
So I think one is for how many coins have gone in to the machine(in to the hopper), one is for how much the machine has paid out in wins and one is for how many coins have been 'withdrawn' from the machine through the hopper. The last one I believe would be the total amount of coins in regardless of wins and coins removed.

So I believe my question is still valid and am curious as to if any one can provide an answer or an equation or even explain that it's mathematically impossible to calculate, etc....

Would be good to hear some viewpoints!

Cheers
Gremmy






.

 

[mattsgame]

Posted here because wasn't sure which section it belonged in?

I noticed when I went to my local pub that all the machines have little counters on them.

. Money in
. Money out
. Total money in
. Total turnover


VWM had a post that basically explained that the fruities will pay out if you knock back enough wins because they will try to push their return to player up to what the program is programmed to payout.

Question........................

Can I apply this same theory to the pokies at the pub by reading these numbers from the counters?
I took notice last time i was at the pub of the numbers and focused on what I believe to be the relevant two numbers, 'Money In' and 'Money Out'.
I know that the pokies are set to pay out at 86% RTP.
Is there a formula I can use so that I can better select a pokie to play(Easy enough for me to do on my phones calculator)?

As an example....
'Money In' counter reads $80,000 has been put in to the machine.
'Money Out' counter reads $20,000 has been paid out.
The machine needs to pay 86% RTP.
How do I calculate what RTP it is sitting on at the time I get to the machine if these numbers were used?

I just assumed to myself that if I sat at a machine that has a reading of $80,000 in and $20,000 out I'd have a better chance than at a machine that has $80,000 in and $78,000 out.

I would love opinions on if this is a valid process i could use to choose a machine and what the formula would be and also would love to know if it wouldn't work and for what reasons.

Am truly curious!

Cheers
Gremmy

(example formula: r(t)=(x(t),y(t),z(t)) = (More money for Gremmy(t)).






.

Back in the day you would have to use those numbers to work out a RTP. The Calculation was as follows.

money in divided by money out.

If a machine (pokie) had a substantially higher money in box to the money out box then I would try that machine as it has not paid out its theoretical RTP.

These days it is the law to provide the RTP setting. You can usually view these via hitting the Info button and selecting Game information.

But as they say these are mostly theories and ones own selection in which machine to play.. you will never tell which machine is about to go off


Cheers Matt

 

[Rhyzz]

Total wagers / total payouts is how to calculate the RTP, nothing to do with how much has been deposited/withdrawn from the machine. Remember that RTP is offset against large jackpots too, so many machines have a side jackpot which is calculated outside of the regular payouts - the easiest one to give an example of is a progressive jackpot in an online Casino. This jackpot may only pay out once every few years, but if the game is played long enough it will massively affect the overall RTP, so a jackpot game that advertises 96% RTP may actually only be around 86% through general play.

The answer then to your question is probably no, you can't really use deposits / withdrawals to calculate an accurate RTP. VWM makes a good arguement though, that the machine will continue to offer better and better payouts to increase it's RTP, although i'd assume that is for stone age bandits and fruit machines with an old algorithm.