A CHALLENGE to Cipher and Bethug (merged with Seanjohn's "apology" thread)

[Vesuvio]

And when the new system has negative variance, he will tweak it again and do something else. And then again. And then again.

Oddly enough it wasn't a progressive system & would have failed if you didn't manage to get above your starting balance before losing your deposit.

 

[Stanford]

noboy sits down and play 300000 hands at one time, so that statics dont count.

Should you teach 300,000 people and they all played perfectly at all the various casinos in the universe at the end of the day, the result *in total* would vary little from expectation. All possible patterns occur eventually.

There are some things that happen in BM casinos that will give a player an edge, but he has to recognize them. They are based on the composition of the remaining shoe or a known segment of that shoe. Without knowledge, however, the result in a BM will be psuedo random and will not vary significantly from computerized results.

Stanford.

 

[Black21Jack]

So your system should work just as well off-line? I'm just curious about this because on another thread you said it was only for on-line casinos.

The difference is: if you say your system is exploiting rigged on-line software then it's a possibility - if it's supposed to work on fair games then you and Bethug are simply delusional (but I'm still glad you're making money). There's a slight chance you might have stumbled on a successful system which only works at on-line casinos & you simply believe it works at land-based casinos as well.

I know you're doing something else now, Black21Jack, but it's pure luck if you've made money from the system you outlined to me in a PM.

Yeah what I told you a while back did not end up working in the long run as well as I wanted it to, what I told you before involved RTG only but as I said in another thread I have totally given up on RTG's, I do not trust the gameplay (own opinion). When I told you that, I was in the research and development stages of what I do now, and I have to add that the method I described to you before made me money and I never lost a dime doing it. It was pure profit, I just knew when it was time to retire from RTG's. I can say that the reason it did not work like I wanted it to was more a result of the software. I will not tell anyone about what I do now. It is not practical for me to play in a land based casino. I could not give up my job like I have to play at the land based casino. At home it takes me 5 - 10 minutes a day. I do not have a land based casino at my disposal. I would have to drive 2 hours everyday to do it. I did it once as I said in another thread but it is not practical. If the casino was next door then yes it would work. What is the point of playing at a land based when we have online casinos? I do not gamble for entertainment or fun, I don't care about the atmosphere, comps or anything. It's all about making money. I don't take their so called free money, I only use my own money to bankroll, I like the anonymity of the online casino, no one else playing with me, no one looking over my shoulder, no distractions etc.

Oh and to add I flat bet strictly.

 

[Stanford]

Oddly enough it wasn't a progressive system & would have failed if you didn't manage to get above your starting balance before losing your deposit.

We did some of that also. Flat bet and try to win X units and then exit the shoe.

I still do that online. Try to win X before losing Y. Since X is usually less, I generally do it. Then when I don't, I might try next time with a bigger betting unit. Thats all fun but that is all it is - for non promotional play.

In BM play, the edge comes from varying the bet based on the remaining composition of the remaining shoe or some known segment.

Stanford.

 

[Black21Jack]

I will not post anymore on this. I am, as I write this setting a calendar reminder in my Blackberry for November 29, 2005 to come to this thread and post with how much I have won, how much I have lost, and whether I am still retired doing what I am doing. Until then I say to this thread bye bye.

 

[BigRed]

Hi Big Red:

I agree with pretty much every thing you stated in your initial post with one exception.

"Anyone who tells you they have a betting system is being dishonest with you."

That's a pretty broad statement. I wonder how in the world I would have ever learned how to count multi-deck Blackjack without having sent Jerry Patterson the money for his course to begin with. Maybe I could have just thought about it for a while and dreamt it up. I know damn good and well the Cipher program would never have been developed had I not sent Jerry Patterson that money and I didn't know him from nobody.

Lastly Red, have you ever heard of such people as Stanford Wong, Kenny Uston or Eddie Olsen, everyone of them contributed greatly to expanding the knowledge of Blackjack players throughout the world. But the funny thing is I can't think of one of those individuals who didn't get paid up front. I think a little bit of common sense needs to be applied in making such statements and/or even decisions of that nature.

Have a good one and welcome to the Forum.

Sorry.


Maybe, I made too broad a statement here. I don't consider counting cards as a "betting system" . Making a bet, once again over time, when you have a 2-3% advantage is a winning proposition. Just as making a bet with a negative expectation is going to end up a loser.

In todays world of internet scams/cons i don't think i could give anyone money up front for an unproven system. Unless it was a well known/repsected person such as you mentioned before. Of course, at one time these guys were unknowns also. I'm not saying your system is a scam as i have no idea what its based on. I would love to find a cheating casino and be able to use their own software against them.

 

[bpb]

I would love to find a cheating casino and be able to use their own software against them.

Why would a casino cheat in an exploitable way? Maybe they can't think of any way to cheat that's not exploitable.

Here's one ... when the dealer draws a bust card, discard it and give the dealer the 2nd card.

Here's another ... when the current bet size > 4x average bet over the last 10 hands, give the dealer 2 face cards 27% of the time, else deal normally.

Seems kind of impossible to exploit cheats like these.


Maybe I'm just smarter than all those evil casino masterminds out there.

 

[BigRed]

Standford, i been beating the house online and off line. Also standford, you need to come to los angeles, where u can be the house aka banker.

Standford when is it going to get me. didit get me in vegas this pass week, nope.

Also just the few people i help are making a profit, when will it get us .

Them % are base on computer play, humans dont play or act like oneway.

noboy sits down and play 300000 hands at one time, so that statics dont count.

"The difference is: if you say your system is exploiting rigged on-line software then it's a possibility - if it's supposed to work on fair games then you and Bethug are simply delusional (but I'm still glad you're making money)."

my bank account is not delusional the people i help are not fake, the money i make is real. Pure haters, i am done with this today

I'm sorry Bethug, but you a just plain misinformed. It doesn't matter if you play 300000 hands in one session or 5 hands a day until you reach 300000. Its the same. The stats are all that matters. The longer you play, the more hands you play, not in any one session, but all of them combined the closer you will get to the expectation.

As far as people playing different from computers. That is true. Many people make mistakes in their play and have a larger negative expectation. Basic strategy tailored for the specific rules of the game are easily found on the web and should be followed. Playing hunches or feelings only cost you money in the long run. Just as in my online poker experience some people will call your 4x BB raise with Q5o when you hold AA. Sometimes you will lose. However, when they do call i've made money even if i lose the hand.

You are just being results oriented. Just because i win or lose a hand has no bearing on if i played it correctly.

 

[Stanford]

I will not post anymore on this. I am, as I write this setting a calendar reminder in my Blackberry for November 29, 2005 to come to this thread and post with how much I have won, how much I have lost, and whether I am still retired doing what I am doing. Until then I say to this thread bye bye.

It might be helpful to you if you keep track of your total action and total results by software. And some idea of your average initial bet. Then your results can be better evaluated.

Stanford.

 

[BigRed]

Why would a casino cheat in an exploitable way? Maybe they can't think of any way to cheat that's not exploitable.

Here's one ... when the dealer draws a bust card, discard it and give the dealer the 2nd card.

Here's another ... when the current bet size > 4x average bet over the last 10 hands, give the dealer 2 face cards 27% of the time, else deal normally.

Seems kind of impossible to exploit cheats like these.


Maybe I'm just smarter than all those evil casino masterminds out there.

So whats your point?

Why take the last line of a post and make into something else?

I don't believe any of these systems being talked about are long term winners.

However, if through changes in the software, there was an unintended flaw i could exploit then i would without remorse.

 

[Stanford]

So whats your point?

I think he just wanted to remove hope from those that might meander down that particular path.

I do remember one glitch in how surrender was programmed, but a betting method wouldn't make any difference. It was fun though.

Stanford.

 

[bethug]

BigRed,what matters is the money i am making betting casinos time after time, If you dont believe me put your money up.

I have bet every major software provider out there. I showed my hood 3000 system bet two differnt casino over week time. Time after time

Simple, my students are doing very well.

 

[bpb]

So whats your point?

Why take the last line of a post and make into something else?

I don't believe any of these systems being talked about are long term winners.

However, if through changes in the software, there was an unintended flaw i could exploit then i would without remorse.

There are several people on these boards who believe that their systems are long term winners because they are exploiting either flaws in the RNG or loopholes in the casinos cheating mechanism.

I was merely thinking aloud as to why a casino would use a cheating mechanism with a loophole.

I also am not sure why the online casinos would not be able to create a sufficiently random RNG. The online poker rooms seem to have done a good enough job. Then there's the issue that not only does the RNG have to be flawed, but that you have access to enough information during your playing sessions to come to a useful conclusion on that flawed RNG

Just as in my online poker experience some people will call your 4x BB raise with Q5o when you hold AA.

Well duh. Q5 completes every 4-straight except 789T. AA only completes 2345 and KQJT. I'll take Q5o any day.

 

[BigRed]

BigRed,what matters is the money i am making betting casinos time after time, If you dont believe me put your money up.

I have bet every major software provider out there. I showed my hood 3000 system bet two differnt casino over week time. Time after time

Simple, my students are doing very well.

I tell you what, You give me your system. I will start with 1k. I will post my results here once every week for 4 months. If i do not have a losing session i will pay you for your system and transfer you all the winning it generates.

If i lose you give me 5k for wasting my time.

 

[Stanford]

Well duh. Q5 completes every 4-straight except 789T. AA only completes 2345 and KQJT. I'll take Q5o any day.

Is this tongue in cheek? Sometimes I can't tell with posters.

From Ed Miller's book re pocket pairs AA and KK:

Monsters. These two are the best in hold em no matter what the situation. They play well in shorthanded and multiway pots. They play well in passive games and in aggressive ones. .... You should almost always raise and reraise with these hands no matter the action.

From Ed Miller's book re junk off suit hands which includes Q5 offsuite:

Do not play them... You will frequently see opponents play them, but they are rarely porfitable. Small steaks games are usually loose, where weak offsuit hands are at their worst...

Stanford.

 

[cipher]

I tell you what, You give me your system. I will start with 1k. I will post my results here once every week for 4 months. If i do not have a losing session i will pay you for your system and transfer you all the winning it generates.

If i lose you give me 5k for wasting my time.

Geesh Red, don't you think you'd be a bit tempted to lose under that scenario. And my tongue is in cheek. Good dialogue. Have a good one.

 

[nafanny29]

Well duh. Q5 completes every 4-straight except 789T. AA only completes 2345 and KQJT. I'll take Q5o any day.

Quote of the day

I am guessing you dont play poker because AA has made me more money than any other hand (According to my 30000 hands in my pokertracker)

AA dealt to me 128 times net win 634 units (won 88 times)

Q5o dealt to me 296 tmies net loss 30 units (played the hand 60 times from BB and occasionally SB in unraised pot) won 4 times!!!!

 

[bpb]

Is this tongue in cheek? Sometimes I can't tell with posters.

Although there are people who think AKo is better than AKs because it can make a flush in 2 suits, I doubt there's anyone who truly believes that Q5o is better than AA. I just thought I'd try making an asinine statement and then try to back it up with some ludicrous defense to see what it felt like.

From Ed Miller's book

That book is too good.

 

[nafanny29]

Im releaved to hear that. Although there are many people out there that will go to the river with ANY 2 cards

And the VERY spooky bit... I just started my evening session on interpoker, posted the blind straight away and got dealt... Qh 5s. Unbelievable... and the flop was Q52 and.. I can now say ive won 5 times on Q5o. (only $5.25 pot everyone folding to my turn bet.. basterds)

I am still sitting here in disbelief I really am

 

[sw2003]

I tell you what, You give me your system. I will start with 1k. I will post my results here once every week for 4 months. If i do not have a losing session i will pay you for your system and transfer you all the winning it generates.

If i lose you give me 5k for wasting my time.

Yup there is nothing to stop you from deliberately losing and therefore winning that 5K! What a deal! I will do that too! You might not even lose all 1K deposit that you provided in the first place. Even if you blow all 1K, you still have a guaranteed winning of 4K!

 

[caruso]

(Working from a foreign computer whose keyboard is a mystery to me. Sorry for the mess.)

Originally Posted by caruso
I'm sorry Eek, this is piffle. Cards do not have memory. That you can somehow "force" the software into dealing you good cards, having received bad cards previously, on the basis that continued bad cards "push the statistical probability of the session even further into a corner" is absolute nonsense.

My God Caruso. For the last time it has nothing to do with bad cards or good cards or anything of the sort. The Cipher program is nothing more than a tool that records trends in realtime. It's the Player's job to:

1) recognize a favorable trend. and 2) to capitalize on those trends. What is so damn difficult to understand about that?

Betting systems, online or terrestrial, cannot turn a negative expectation game into a positive one. This subject doesn't require discussion, it is a long, long established and proven fact.

All this negative expectation this and standard deviations that is absolute nonsense developed originally by the casinos themselves and consumed by the players as though it were gospel. Give me a break.

Have you ever heard of a guy by the name of Kenny Uston? Ken Uston was arguably the most famous blackjack player ever. His innovative blackjack team play techniques took millions off the Las Vegas blackjack tables before they were detected by the casinos. Player, Author, Instructor, Jazz Musician, and gambling raconteur, Kenny was a great guy to hang out with.

Brought up in a middle-class New York City household, Ken Uston graduated from Yale with the highest honors. At the age of 31 he was earning $42,500 a year plus many fringe benefits as a Senior Vice President of the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange. But he gave it all up and dropped out of the corporate world to play professional blackjack. From article written by Jerry Patterson

There were more than a few "scoffers" back in the mid 80's as well but I'll guarantee you one thing that group didn't include the casinos after having been ripped for millions.

If you believe you can change the odds with a betting system, short term or long term, you are a fool.


No Caruso, I personally witnessed some of Kenny Uston's brillance then and I know damn good and well that none NONE of these on line casinos have a clue about how a true random number generator operate. Moreover anyone that believes these casinos are running true random number generators are fools. Have a good one.

---------------------

???

LOL, where did that explosion of aggression suddenly come from?? My post was addressed to Eek.

"All this negative expectation this and standard deviations that is absolute nonsense developed originally by the casinos themselves and consumed by the players as though it were gospel. Give me a break...Have you ever heard of a guy by the name of Kenny Uston?"

Yes, I believe I have. He was a famous counter, whose profits were derived exclusively from knowledge of - amongst other things - standard deviation, expectation and other such nonsense developed by the casinos.

Or is it all a lie? Was Uston a "trendist", cunningly disguising himself and his teams as counters exclusively for the purpose of getting themselves mass-barred and ending their careers?

At this point in time I can safely say Im ready to read anything. This is a very bizarre turn.

 

[Dolphin]

I have a question to winning system players. Let's toss a coin. You can guess heads or tails. If you guess correctly and have wagered for example $100 I'll pay you $199. If you lose I get your $100. Of course your betting amount can be whatever but I'll always pay you with that ratio. Can you beat me?

 

[cipher]

I have a question to winning system players. Let's toss a coin. You can guess heads or tails. If you guess correctly and have wagered for example $100 I'll pay you $199. If you lose I get your $100. Of course your betting amount can be whatever but I'll always pay you with that ratio. Can you beat me?

Hi Dolphin:

I'm assuming that I'm one of the "system players" your question is addressed to, if not forgive me. But my answer to your question would be no as I havn't got the time or the inclination to figure it out. Have a good one.

 

[bewitch]

What a crazy thread. Well, it's kind of entertaining by now. Personally, I respect Cipher for what he had done and is doing now. Most of us, including myself, like to agrue things we don't really know or jump into the discussion too qucikly. But I guess that's the power of a public forum. My head is spinning by reading it but I sure learn something interesting.

Hope you all had great Thanksgiving (besides the traffic)! Now Merry Christmas and Happy New year!!!

 

[bethug]

I guess we trowing money away.Since no one is beating the casino.