Question 54% RTP on IR (need advice)

[Persianprince]

Hi there,

Had terrible runs on IR over the last sessions at Guts. I've blown away over 4000 euros with 1-2 euros spins on this specific slot.

When I came back today to play I notice that MG had reset all my achievements and then got worries about my RTP. The chat support confirmed that MG had done some license switches that did reset all the achievements but clearly not the RTP.
I then askes about my RTP which was 54%.

When she states that the RTP hasn't been reset, is it trustable?
And how is it possible to have played roughly 150000 spins and be sitting on a 54% RTP?
Does this mean that a big hit theoretically spoken is waiting for me?

I have never heard of such bad results of that many spins. Should I let go or try to win something? I mean if I would up myself to a 75% solely would be a huge win for me.

Thanks for any advise or opinions,

 

[sscrabble]

Your rtp cannot be 54%. If you have had 150,000 spins at 1 euro you would have lost about 70,000 euros. A 4,000 euro loss suggests about 97% !

 

[rshkrn]

IR is one slot I can never seem to win.........my advice - switch slots.....just let go instead of chasing those losses....hope the next one is luckier for you

 

[PaaskeDenmark]

Hi there,

Had terrible runs on IR over the last sessions at Guts. I've blown away over 4000 euros with 1-2 euros spins on this specific slot.

When I came back today to play I notice that MG had reset all my achievements and then got worries about my RTP. The chat support confirmed that MG had done some license switches that did reset all the achievements but clearly not the RTP.
I then askes about my RTP which was 54%.

When she states that the RTP hasn't been reset, is it trustable?
And how is it possible to have played roughly 150000 spins and be sitting on a 54% RTP?
Does this mean that a big hit theoretically spoken is waiting for me?

I have never heard of such bad results of that many spins. Should I let go or try to win something? I mean if I would up myself to a 75% solely would be a huge win for me.

Thanks for any advise or opinions,

Don't Speculate at all about RTP is the best advise. And don't chase loses at no circumstances! You are only going to hurt your self there mate.

Best advise is to only play these high volatile Slots when you might have won somewhere or when you have got bit extra spare money. IF you have £100 and can spare them and feel lucky then try it maybe. Or best start much lower bets only with 0.30 or 0.60. I have seen many crazy winner shots from these bets. Good Luck hope the big one will come soon

 

[Wild Reels]

i would guess the 54% RTP answer was referring to 1 session, and not an overall as you would have lost a lot more like the above poster had said.

Taking your rough estimates,

if it were purely €1 spins over 150,000 spins with a loss of €4000 then your overall rtp would have been 97.3%

if it were purely €2 spins over 150,000 spins with a loss of €4000 then your overall rtp would have been 98.6%

which are about what you would expect for the slots stated rtp on 96.86%

 

[chuchu59]

Your rtp cannot be 54%. If you have had 150,000 spins at 1 euro you would have lost about 70,000 euros. A 4,000 euro loss suggests about 97% !

Your calculations are right. Its just that the OP may not have compared like with like. The 54% rtp was probably for one session ie his latest one where he did close to 10,000 or so spins at 1 Euro.

That said, nothing really surprises me for this slot. The Wild Desire feature can easily jack up your RTP by 20% or more and in a single spin you can easily make a profit from an earlier huge loss.

 

[dave1888]

There is no advice to give all I would suggest is give some of the older mg 243 way slots a go for a while like thunderstruck 2,Asian Beauty,twisted circus etc they are actually pretty nice sometimes trust me. Diversify that's what you should do then hammer Immortal when you have a big balance but I'd suggest betting max 0.5% of your balance at a time max as that game can eat up £160 at 30p bets in half an hour when it is at its worst! Good luck in future sessions

 

[Persianprince]

RTP

Thanks for some great counselling.
Then the support must have mislead me. She said that my overall RTP was 54%.

My best win out of these 150000 spins was 400x bet. I guess I'll be betting lower and hopefully get a good run for once.

 

[dunover]

Thanks for some great counselling.
Then the support must have mislead me. She said that my overall RTP was 54%.

My best win out of these 150000 spins was 400x bet. I guess I'll be betting lower and hopefully get a good run for once.

If you had had hundreds of thousands of spins on any single game, regardless of variance, or across many games at one casino then it's near-impossible to have an RTP that low. Due to law of large numbers, you'd have experienced levelling out by then to I'd guess within +/- 10% of average RTP for the games you played, or stated RTP for a single game.

 

[brianmon]

If you had had hundreds of thousands of spins on any single game, regardless of variance, or across many games at one casino then it's near-impossible to have an RTP that low. Due to law of large numbers, you'd have experienced levelling out by then to I'd guess within +/- 10% of average RTP for the games you played, or stated RTP for a single game.

I think actually 'the law of large numbers' is more to do with a particular game achieving it's TRTP, rather than an individual achieving their 'personal' RTP.

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Don't fall victim of the 'gamblers fallacy'

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.

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[daenyboi]

Don't Speculate at all about RTP is the best advise. And don't chase loses at no circumstances! You are only going to hurt your self there mate.

Best advise is to only play these high volatile Slots when you might have won somewhere or when you have got bit extra spare money. IF you have £100 and can spare them and feel lucky then try it maybe. Or best start much lower bets only with 0.30 or 0.60. I have seen many crazy winner shots from these bets. Good Luck hope the big one will come soon

Actually good advice, chasing losses in IR is not good for you, Victorious is for a loss saver though=)

 

[dunover]

I think actually 'the law of large numbers' is more to do with a particular game achieving it's TRTP, rather than an individual achieving their 'personal' RTP.

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Don't fall victim of the 'gamblers fallacy'

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.

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You don't have to tell me about the 'gambler's fallacy'! Like most I am fully aware of it, but beware when it's glibly mentioned as a general repartee to all gambling. As you know, it was penned at the time of physical games with random limited outcomes such as roulette, dice, craps etc. The poster was also alleging 150k spins on ONE game.

Unfortunately with the advent of RNG/computer algorithm-based games with thousands of permutations via their reels and paytables things aren't as straightforward. In fact, to digress, the effect has even been seen in things as simple as national lottery games where some mathematicians have demonstrated that over time the deviance from expected average results becomes less and less, and is even seen quite quickly in terms of time, despite the balls being drawn randomly.

The simple fact is due to paytables and reel-maps on slots the chances of not getting a certain win outcome in say several hundred spins are staggeringly high against. You know yourself; play say TSII and try not to get 3 9's or 10's in say any 100 spins.
Then you've got massive statistical evidence on here even - check out the stats some of us (especially kktmd) have collated via the RNG by speed-playing slots. On every one, once you hit 100k spins the deviation from TRTP is trivial, and by 1 million it's invariably +/- 0.5%
Then you've got the bonus calculation. It has been demonstrated to constitute 15-20% of a game's TRTP, therefore be at 54% after 150k spins you would have had to have 0 bonus rounds and a normal-play succession of bad RNG picks that would break odds against probably outnumbering all atoms in the visible universe, or a similar mathematical catastrophe.

Yes, each individual event has the same odds irrespective of previous results and any random game. Nobody would dispute that. The point of my post is that, to tell me you as an individual can get a sequence of 150k RNG returns on the reel permutations of a 95% TRTP slot and end up with 54% even on the highest variance version, would be stretching reality a little too far.

 

[Persianprince]

You're right.

You don't have to tell me about the 'gambler's fallacy'! Like most I am fully aware of it, but beware when it's glibly mentioned as a general repartee to all gambling. As you know, it was penned at the time of physical games with random limited outcomes such as roulette, dice, craps etc. The poster was also alleging 150k spins on ONE game.

Unfortunately with the advent of RNG/computer algorithm-based games with thousands of permutations via their reels and paytables things aren't as straightforward. In fact, to digress, the effect has even been seen in things as simple as national lottery games where some mathematicians have demonstrated that over time the deviance from expected average results becomes less and less, and is even seen quite quickly in terms of time, despite the balls being drawn randomly.

The simple fact is due to paytables and reel-maps on slots the chances of not getting a certain win outcome in say several hundred spins are staggeringly high against. You know yourself; play say TSII and try not to get 3 9's or 10's in say any 100 spins.
Then you've got massive statistical evidence on here even - check out the stats some of us (especially kktmd) have collated via the RNG by speed-playing slots. On every one, once you hit 100k spins the deviation from TRTP is trivial, and by 1 million it's invariably +/- 0.5%
Then you've got the bonus calculation. It has been demonstrated to constitute 15-20% of a game's TRTP, therefore be at 54% after 150k spins you would have had to have 0 bonus rounds and a normal-play succession of bad RNG picks that would break odds against probably outnumbering all atoms in the visible universe, or a similar mathematical catastrophe.

Yes, each individual event has the same odds irrespective of previous results and any random game. Nobody would dispute that. The point of my post is that, to tell me you as an individual can get a sequence of 150k RNG returns on the reel permutations of a 95% TRTP slot and end up with 54% even on the highest variance version, would be stretching reality a little too far.

Yes, you are right. The support had it wrong though. As I contacted them again today after a small win my RTP was suddenly 99%.. After a bit explaining to ger that this is impossible she askes someone else I believe and then got explained that my total RTP was 88%. She was only informing me about the daily session previously.

This explains it all but 88% for 150k spins is still quite low. Had a small succes with low bets today though.

 

[sscrabble]

88% is still wrong - at 1.00 per spin that is a loss of 18,000 -- are you sure you have had that many spins - an 88% rtp would suggest about 30,000 spins for a 4,000 loss

 

[dunover]

88% is still wrong - at 1.00 per spin that is a loss of 18,000 -- are you sure you have had that many spins - an 88% rtp would suggest about 30,000 spins for a 4,000 loss

No, it isn't necessarily wrong - people often make this mistake with RTP. The figure includes RECYCLING so it's entirely possible to 'lose' £18k in 150k spins off of deposits of far less than 150k. The way RTP is calculated, any session paying 99.99% or less can result in a bust-out - obviously if you bust and had a RTP of 99.99% it would have taken you thousands of spins to do it, if you had a RTP of 55% it would be over in minutes, quite literally.

Deposits and withdrawals have no relation to RTP in this sense.

 

[sscrabble]

No, it isn't necessarily wrong - people often make this mistake with RTP. The figure includes RECYCLING so it's entirely possible to 'lose' £18k in 150k spins off of deposits of far less than 150k. The way RTP is calculated, any session paying 99.99% or less can result in a bust-out - obviously if you bust and had a RTP of 99.99% it would have taken you thousands of spins to do it, if you had a RTP of 55% it would be over in minutes, quite literally.

Deposits and withdrawals have no relation to RTP in this sense.

I see what you mean - if you bet 100,000 at 99% you lose 1000 - if you then bet 1000 at 10% you lose 100 - but they would say your average rtp is 54.5% . So their rtp figures are meaningless !

 

[Persianprince]

I had an awful streak where I lost over 2000 within 24 hours beting 1,5-2 euros. That's what probably made the RTP so low.

Now when rolling low it feels like the slot is heading for a higher RTP. Does this make sense? 150k spins pulled. Went from 86% to 88 today. Very small profit. Doesn't this mean that within 50k spins it will be very close to 98%? Which will make high bets useless.

I dis this once with NetEnt, had such a bad streak then lowered the bet and grinded back the whole RTP. Won 1k+ in a day with 0.1 bets. That was not random.

 

[Wild Reels]

honestly i don't know what trying to "improve" your lifetime rtp back up to any value under 100% is going to do, it simply means you've wagered even more money through the slots and potentially lost even more whilst wagering more money for the sake a raising a % value.

People tend to recently obsess over rtp, i would advise taking each session individually, sure check the rtp if you've had a good or bad session but don't set goals to improve your overall lifetime rtp by wagering 1000's.. (its effectively chasing losses under a different guise)

in simple terms an example,

Spins at £1 , 100,000 and an overall loss of £5000 would be a 95%RTP

in an effort to "improve your rtp" with a further 100,000 spins at £1 you end up losing another £1000 giving you RTP of 99% for that session.

Its raised your overall RTP to 97% and in the process you still lost money

 

[Persianprince]

honestly i don't know what trying to "improve" your lifetime rtp back up to any value under 100% is going to do, it simply means you've wagered even more money through the slots and potentially lost even more whilst wagering more money for the sake a raising a % value.

People tend to recently obsess over rtp, i would advise taking each session individually, sure check the rtp if you've had a good or bad session but don't set goals to improve your overall lifetime rtp by wagering 1000's.. (its effectively chasing losses under a different guise)

in simple terms an example,

Spins at £1 , 100,000 and an overall loss of £5000 would be a 95%RTP

in an effort to "improve your rtp" with a further 100,000 spins at £1 you end up losing another £1000 giving you RTP of 99% for that session.

Its raised your overall RTP to 97% and in the process you still lost money

Yes, I understand your point and theory. But what if you're low-rolling?
Lets say you pull 50k spins 1 euro each but are sitting on 70% RTP, which is very low. Then low rolling your way back would give you a lot of money back 28% of 500k right?
If you hit the TRTP that is.. If it will take 500k spins on 10 cents, then it might not be worth it of course but you get the point.

 

[Finn]

Yes, I understand your point and theory. But what if you're low-rolling?
Lets say you pull 50k spins 1 euro each but are sitting on 70% RTP, which is very low. Then low rolling your way back would give you a lot of money back 28% of 500k right?
If you hit the TRTP that is.. If it will take 500k spins on 10 cents, then it might not be worth it of course but you get the point.

Let's say that a slot has RTP of 96.1%.

Let's say that your RTP of first 10k spins is 70%.

Now, for the next 90k spins your RTP is 99%.

Now your total 100k spin RTP is exactly TRTP 96.1%, but eventhough there was a huge jump in your RTP, you still lost money. Anything better than 70% is going to get you closer to the TRTP compared to the starting point, but that doesn't mean you are going to actually net any money on your journey from 70% to 96.1%.

 

[dunover]

honestly i don't know what trying to "improve" your lifetime rtp back up to any value under 100% is going to do, it simply means you've wagered even more money through the slots and potentially lost even more whilst wagering more money for the sake a raising a % value.

People tend to recently obsess over rtp, i would advise taking each session individually, sure check the rtp if you've had a good or bad session but don't set goals to improve your overall lifetime rtp by wagering 1000's.. (its effectively chasing losses under a different guise)

in simple terms an example,

Spins at £1 , 100,000 and an overall loss of £5000 would be a 95%RTP

in an effort to "improve your rtp" with a further 100,000 spins at £1 you end up losing another £1000 giving you RTP of 99% for that session.

Its raised your overall RTP to 97% and in the process you still lost money

Obviously that's correct should the player do the whole 100k spins, but as an addition to your example, the player could get a huge RTP spike at the start of those 100k spins via a succession of good features/wins. In fact, at an early stage of those second 100k spins the player (having had as in your example already 95% over the previous 100k) could easily raise his overall RTP to 120%. Say he deposits another 10k, wins 37k his overall stakes are then 110k, and his winnings 132k so he has a RTP of 120% and a tidy profit.
Then, if he's like me and feels his luck will surely go on a down-curve after a successful run he bails and plays something else or goes to a different site...
Should the scenario be different, and this run came at the end of the second 100k spins then of course it would do nothing, as you inferred and he would still be down, having just got a sub-90% RTP up to the 95% at the last minute and never been ahead.
So this is just a complicated way of saying on the random slots that you can either be a beneficiary or loser of the unknown, but you won't know until you try; surely why we all do it!

 

[spoton]

You can't do anything to improve your past RTP. The slot doesen't have any memory, so you might aswell again have a couple of 1000s of spins with a RTP of 50%.

Ofcourse you can use the big number laws, but thinking we don't know the variance of IR, other than that its high, it could take a million of spins to come even close to the theorethical RTP.

The only ones that will come close to the RTP of the different slots are pretty much the casinos themselves.