$500 Flatbet session at Phoenician

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
This session consists of 548 hands with a flat bet of $500.00 on all hands. You'll want to pay particular attention to the "double downs" (25 Wins out of 63 attempts) and the "splits" (3 Wins out of 9 attempts) that account for $14,500.00 out of the total loss of $23,500.00.

Check out the RCA (Relative Card Averages) values. The All Player Cards bar graph and the Player's First Two Cards bar graph are nearly identical even to the fact of both of those categories being not random with a 95% degree of confidence. Have a good one.
 

bethug

Banned User - Winner of the "<a href="http://www.c
cipher, is that real money? it looks like u lose over 23000 :confused:
 

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
bethug said:
cipher, is that real money? it looks like u lose over 23000 :confused:
You know me better than that I hope Bethug. All of the strands that I've done over the last 60 days or so on Phoenician or Nostalgia are in free play.

I'm working on a large sample of RTG hands that have been sent to me by several players over the last couple of months and those sessions are for real money. Have a good one.
 

Simmo!

Moderator
Staff member
cipher said:
You'll want to pay particular attention to the "double downs" (25 Wins out of 63 attempts) and the "splits" (3 Wins out of 9 attempts) that account for $14,500.00 out of the total loss of $23,500.00.
It would be interesting to see the combined results from all the players hands you have. You can't conclude anything from 3 out of 9 (expected 4.5 I assume) or 25 out of 63 (expected 31.5 I assume) but a sample of 100,000+ would provide interesting results indeed.

As an aside, you are implying that RTG software is weighted in the casino's favour more heavily than the House Edge alone Cipher, yes?
 

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
Simmo! said:
It would be interesting to see the combined results from all the players hands you have. You can't conclude anything from 3 out of 9 (expected 4.5 I assume) or 25 out of 63 (expected 31.5 I assume) but a sample of 100,000+ would provide interesting results indeed.

As an aside, you are implying that RTG software is weighted in the casino's favour more heavily than the House Edge alone Cipher, yes?
I'm from a different school of thought than most Simmo. I don't need to see hundreds of thousands of hands being played in order to recognize very real and very factual trends. I utilize the data that I record in very real sessions of play on a daily basis.

"You are implying that RTG software is weighted in the casino's favour more heavily than the House Edge alone Cipher, yes?"

The data that I'm seeing indicates to me that each RTG casino has the ability to set the individual parameters for such things as splits and double downs.

Have a good one.
 

Johnny Empire

Dormant account
Trend

I calc odds of losing 47 bets or worse in 548 hands as 5.07%. You'll need more than that to prove a casino is rigged.

If you really want a statistical sample, play 100,000 hands. If you lose more than 2,000 bets, the chance of that happening randomly is .0006%. Then I'd believe it.

But then I don't play at a casino unless they give me a bonus offer equal to a 3%+ player edge anyway. Why take chances? :)
 

DeMango

Dormant account
You SHOULD win more splits and double downs than lose. This plus BJ's are what in theory make a game where you lose 52.5% of all hands only lose .5% of money wagered assuming flat bets.
 

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
DeMango said:
You SHOULD win more splits and double downs than lose. This plus BJ's are what in theory make a game where you lose 52.5% of all hands only lose .5% of money wagered assuming flat bets.
I agree Demango. In this particular session the incidence of blackjack for the house and the player were both 26. But the huge disparity in the win loss ratio incident to splits and double downs is just way too peculiar for me. Have a good one.
 
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summertime

Dormant account
You're still the man Cipher

Cipher,

I have to thank the guy who taught you to count 4 decks(can't remember his name) and thank you for continuing to help others in his name. Many posters on this board work hard to help guilelss newbies or small bettors like me not lose money and I appreciate each one, including Caruso. I especially like the way you simply post facts, point out trends that your sets of facts seem to indicate and by gosh, give us a copy so that we can print it and look at it!

You have saved me much money (by my NOT betting) simply in showing me that it requires a sophistication that I don't possess. (I sure wish I'd read your posts before I lost that first $600.)

I get a little peeved when folks respond to you about sample sizes and rigging, etc. You really do just provide a FREE service as a jumping off point for thoughtful decisionmaking.

Okay, I'm done :)
 

Flavio4321

Dormant account
splits and doubles question

hey to Cipher or anybody who knows, What is the average ( percentage ) amonut of hands that one should win after double downs on a fair BJ game?
Same question regarding splits?

I want to know this for different rules, specifically RTG and Cryptologic.

I looked for the answer on the wizard's site and I didnt find it.

Thanks in advance if anybody knows the answer.
 

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
Flavio4321 said:
hey to Cipher or anybody who knows, What is the average ( percentage ) amonut of hands that one should win after double downs on a fair BJ game?
Same question regarding splits?

I want to know this for different rules, specifically RTG and Cryptologic.

I looked for the answer on the wizard's site and I didnt find it.

Thanks in advance if anybody knows the answer.
Hey Flavio; Good to hear from you. But I'm going to yield to Caruso or Grand Master on this one. Have a good one.
 

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
summertime said:
Cipher,

I have to thank the guy who taught you to count 4 decks(can't remember his name) and thank you for continuing to help others in his name. Many posters on this board work hard to help guilelss newbies or small bettors like me not lose money and I appreciate each one, including Caruso. I especially like the way you simply post facts, point out trends that your sets of facts seem to indicate and by gosh, give us a copy so that we can print it and look at it!

You have saved me much money (by my NOT betting) simply in showing me that it requires a sophistication that I don't possess. (I sure wish I'd read your posts before I lost that first $600.)

I get a little peeved when folks respond to you about sample sizes and rigging, etc. You really do just provide a FREE service as a jumping off point for thoughtful decisionmaking.

Okay, I'm done :)
Heh there little buddy;

That gentlemen was Jerry Patterson out of Vorhees, New Jersey at the Blackjack Academy and it was the 6 to 8 deck shoe. Have a good one.
 

GrandMaster

Ueber Meister
CAG
cipher said:
Hey Flavio; Good to hear from you. But I'm going to yield to Caruso or Grand Master on this one. Have a good one.
I have a program to calculate composition dependent strategy. It should only need some minor modification to calculate the probability of win/loss/push after doubling down. If I have time, I will post some numbers tonight, if not, then probably on Sunday.
 

GrandMaster

Ueber Meister
CAG
I promised some numbers, so here are some numbers.

The first column shows the player's total, the second the dealer's up card, the third the probability of this particular combination being dealt, the last three columns show the probability of the player winning, pushing or losing the double down. These numbers are for a 4 deck shoe, and don't include split hands, but the probabilities should not be too much different for 6 or 8 decks or for hands after a split.

For hard doubles, the probability of a win is usually 50-60%, the probability of a push is 6-9%, and the probability of a loss is usually 30-40%.


9, 3, 0.00271310, 0.50019495, 0.06888858, 0.430916457
9, 4, 0.00271310, 0.51841005, 0.06647686, 0.415113080,
9, 5, 0.00271310, 0.53664626, 0.06416847, 0.399185252,
9, 6, 0.00271310, 0.55280310, 0.06224455, 0.384952338

10, 2, 0.00314605, 0.554506, 0.0790360, 0.366458,
10, 3, 0.00314605, 0.569135, 0.0766647, 0.354201,
10, 4, 0.00314605, 0.584117, 0.0738528, 0.34203,
10, 5, 0.00314966, 0.600010, 0.0708573, 0.329132,
10, 6, 0.00314605, 0.614227, 0.0683477, 0.317426,
10, 7, 0.00314605, 0.564752, 0.0736985, 0.36155,
10, 8, 0.00314605, 0.536796, 0.0730063, 0.390198,
10, 9, 0.00320378, 0.493880, 0.0869117, 0.419209,
 

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
GrandMaster said:
I promised some numbers, so here are some numbers.

The first column shows the player's total, the second the dealer's up card, the third the probability of this particular combination being dealt, the last three columns show the probability of the player winning, pushing or losing the double down. These numbers are for a 4 deck shoe, and don't include split hands, but the probabilities should not be too much different for 6 or 8 decks or for hands after a split.

For hard doubles, the probability of a win is usually 50-60%, the probability of a push is 6-9%, and the probability of a loss is usually 30-40%.


9, 3, 0.00271310, 0.50019495, 0.06888858, 0.430916457
9, 4, 0.00271310, 0.51841005, 0.06647686, 0.415113080,
9, 5, 0.00271310, 0.53664626, 0.06416847, 0.399185252,
9, 6, 0.00271310, 0.55280310, 0.06224455, 0.384952338

10, 2, 0.00314605, 0.554506, 0.0790360, 0.366458,
10, 3, 0.00314605, 0.569135, 0.0766647, 0.354201,
10, 4, 0.00314605, 0.584117, 0.0738528, 0.34203,
10, 5, 0.00314966, 0.600010, 0.0708573, 0.329132,
10, 6, 0.00314605, 0.614227, 0.0683477, 0.317426,
10, 7, 0.00314605, 0.564752, 0.0736985, 0.36155,
10, 8, 0.00314605, 0.536796, 0.0730063, 0.390198,
10, 9, 0.00320378, 0.493880, 0.0869117, 0.419209,
Thanks for the numbers. Have a good one.
 

DeMango

Dormant account
Thanks for the figures. I would like to work up my own, for one and two deck, B&M casino's. Need figures on doubling vs hitting, also H17 & S17. Do you have any formulas? I can get hand value probability from Professional BJ by Wong
 

cipher

Banned member - being a jerk
Grand Master, are these figures based on Internet Blackjack or off known quantities incident to land based play? Have a good one.
 

GrandMaster

Ueber Meister
CAG
I calculated the numbers myself, I don't know if they can be found anywhere. They are exact numbers, not not the result of simulations. These numbers relate to a freshly shuffled 4 deck shoe, to this extent they are only applicable to online casinos that shuffle after every hand, but the averages at a casino that does not shuffle after every hand should not be much different. I forgot to mention that I assumed S17 rules. I will try to get a full set of figures, including soft doubles, tonight.
 
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