50 free spins at aspinalls = 0, NOTHING, NADA

[Rusty]

My guess would be MUCH higher - nearing impossible!
I've been playing slots near-enough daily for 5 years and find it hard to imagine what the odds of 50 win-less spins are on ANY game...

I think I've got the reel layouts for Avalon somewhere - anyone want to volunteer to work it out?

KK

I will give it a shot KK but I'm really busy at the moment so if someone else has some free time then be my guest.
I don't think for a moment the game was rigged to pay zero, even a corrupt outfit wouldn't be that dumb.

However it will be interesting to know the true odds of this happening and it is possible that such a result is symptomatic of the RTP being reduced for complimentary games - of course you have to believe that the RTP can be changed for MG slots and the RTP and variance is controlled by dynamic weighting for that to be theory to even be a starter.

Otherwise we just have to say extraordinarily bad luck. How bad we shall calculate.

 

[KasinoKing]

These are the reels for Avalon. I've had them so long I've forgotten where I got them now...
I also don't have the key for the symbols, but it's pretty easy to work out; The "0" will be the wild and the highest number (11) the Scatters, then the other numbers will be the symbols in descending value order.

Should be relatively simple to enter the data into Excel & work out the odds of 1 non-winning spin (even I can do that!), but I'm not sure I can remember how to calculate the odds of N non-winning spins in succession - so I might need some help with that! (My brain's a but rusty - if you'll excuse the pun! )

Reel 1	Reel 2	Reel 3	Reel 4	Reel 5
0	0	0	0	0
7	6	10	9	10
5	9	5	8	8
10	4	9	4	5
2	1	2	6	6
9	8	8	5	11
7	5	1	7	7
5	7	3	2	9
10	2	10	1	3
2	10	5	7	6
9	3	9	9	7
11	9	11	8	9
8	4	4	4	3
4	1	6	6	1
10	10	8	5	10
8	5	1	10	8
7	11	3	3	5
5	10	10	9	1
10	3	4	8	4
2	7	7	4	2
9	6	6	7	9
1	2	2	11	8
6	10	9	6	2
4	6	7	10	4
3	8	8	3	10
6	5	3	6	8
1	9	6	10	5
8	4	8	2	9
4	1	2	9	10
6	8	10	10	1
1	7	5	1	9
8	3	9	8	10
3	9	7	5	2
9	2	4	7	7

What I have already worked out from this info, is the odds of getting 5-wilds on one of the 20 win-lines is 1 in 2,270,771 spins, 5 scatters is 1 in 186,977, and triggering the free-spins (3 or more scatters) is 1 in 166.88

KK

 

[Miss_Token]

Oh!

Thanks KK for that information...i didnt know that you can have all the reels from one machine. I cannot do anything with that, but maybe some user can... know what are the chances of getting 50 dead spins in a row.

Thanks anyone for this information.

 

[De Beuker]

Oh!

Thanks KK for that information...i didnt know that you can have all the reels from one machine. I cannot do anything with that, but maybe some user can... know what are the chances of getting 50 dead spins in a row.

Thanks anyone for this information.

Wel, according to my personal experiences it should be somewhere in the neighbourhood of one out of one quadrillion ,one hundred twenty five trillion ,eight hundred ninety nine billion ,nine hundred seven million.

In other words, if the entire population of this planet starts spinning now, non-stop for the next 100.000 years it might still never happen.

So yes, I think you were kinda ripped off.
It was free, I know, but thats not the point.
An event like this just should not happen.
Not without the reels beeing weighted

I've experienced a few of these impossible sequences of dead spins myself, but that was always during a freespinround with lots of retriggers.
That more or less convinced me that freespinrounds are somehow predetermend.

Problem is, you can never prove it.
They will always tell you that it IS possible, no matter how astronomically small the chances are.
Truly random, you know..

 

[Jasminebed]

That is some run of bad luck. Did they give you all the lines for the free spins? I know in the past I've had freespin offers that were NOT all lines, eg once 10 lines @ 1cent on Mad Hatters, a game that is 30 lines.

I even recall reading a grumble because someone was sent a free spin offer from somewhere that was one line, one coin on some game or other.

 

[Miss_Token]

That is some run of bad luck. Did they give you all the lines for the free spins? I know in the past I've had freespin offers that were NOT all lines, eg once 10 lines @ 1cent on Mad Hatters, a game that is 30 lines.

I even recall reading a grumble because someone was sent a free spin offer from somewhere that was one line, one coin on some game or other.

Hi jasmine... i see you always at 3dice
They give 50 free spins at 20 lines, 1 coin.
It was almost funny, didnt get nothing but, what can i do?

 

[Rusty]

Here are my calculations based on the reel layout from KK.
I am not so good at Maths so look out for errors.

Where W=wild and Sn = symbol identifier
Number of instances follows = and reel combinations shown in brackets.

Any Two of a Kind or more

W, S1/S2/W, any, any, any = 275,128 (1x7x34x34x34)
S1/S2, W, any, any, any = 235,824 (6x1x34x34x34) * Wild excluded reel 1 because calculated above

510,952 totalx20 lines = 10,219,040

Any Three of a kind using wilds (wilds used above and scatters excluded)

W, S3 to S10, W, any, any = 30,056 (1x26x1x34x34) * scatter excluded from reel 2 (makes no win)
S3 to S10, W, W, any, any = 30,056 (26x1x1x34x34) * scatter excluded from reel 1 (makes no win)

60,112 totalx20 lines = 1,202,240

Any 3 of a kind or more (wilds and scatters excluded)

s1,s1,s1, any, any = 20,808 (3x3x2x34x34)
s2, s2, s2, any, any = 31,212 (3x3x3x34x34) * an oddity?
S3, S3, S3, Any, Any = 20,808 (2x3x3x34x34)
S4, S4, S4, Any, Any = 31,212 (3x3x3x34x34)
S5, S5, S5, Any, Any = 31,212 (3x3x3x34x34)
S6, S6, S6, Any, Any = 31,212 (3x3x3x34x34)
S7, S7, S7, Any, Any = 31,212 (3x3x3x34x34)
S8, S8, S8, Any, Any = 55,488 (4x3x4x34x34)
S9, S9, S9, Any, Any = 73,984 (4x4x4x34x34)
S10, S10, S10, Any, Any = 73,984 (4x4x4x34x34)

401,132 totalx20 lines = 8,022,640

Any 2 scatters or more

353,736 (3x3x34x34x34) * 3 because scatter

353,736 totalx10 = 3,537,360 * Multiply by 10 possible 2 of a kind combinations on 5 reels

Total winning combinations (note most of these return much lower than bet)

10,219,040
01,202,240
08,022,640
03,537,360

22,981,280 TOTAL

Total possible combinations 45,435,424 (34x34x34x34x34)

22,981,280 in 45,435,424 chance of any spin returning more than zero (1.977* negligibly better than an even chance)

Probability of 50 complimentary spins returning zero = (1/2)^50 = 1,125,899,906,842,624 actually that is calculated at even

money and the odds are actually worse.

To give that number some meaning lets assume that 10,000 people play this offer each and every day, that's 3 million 560 (356 days in a year Rusty?))

thousand every year. How long before we can expect someone to complain they won zero?
31,626,401 Years! That is over 31 Million years LOL.

I would be surprised if there are no mistakes in my calculations though as I did them manually so if you spot any feel free to

chime in and we can recalculate.

 

[Miss_Token]

Here are my calculations based on the reel layout from KK.
I am not so good at Maths so look out for errors.

Where W=wild and Sn = symbol identifier
Number of instances follows = and reel combinations shown in brackets.

Any Two of a Kind or more

W, S1/S2/W, any, any, any = 275,128 (1x7x34x34x34)
S1/S2, W, any, any, any = 235,824 (6x1x34x34x34) * Wild excluded reel 1 because calculated above

510,952 totalx20 lines = 10,219,040

Any Three of a kind using wilds (wilds used above and scatters excluded)

W, S3 to S10, W, any, any = 30,056 (1x26x1x34x34) * scatter excluded from reel 2 (makes no win)
S3 to S10, W, W, any, any = 30,056 (26x1x1x34x34) * scatter excluded from reel 1 (makes no win)

60,112 totalx20 lines = 1,202,240

Any 3 of a kind or more (wilds and scatters excluded)

s1,s1,s1, any, any = 20,808 (3x3x2x34x34)
s2, s2, s2, any, any = 31,212 (3x3x3x34x34) * an oddity?
S3, S3, S3, Any, Any = 20,808 (2x3x3x34x34)
S4, S4, S4, Any, Any = 31,212 (3x3x3x34x34)
S5, S5, S5, Any, Any = 31,212 (3x3x3x34x34)
S6, S6, S6, Any, Any = 31,212 (3x3x3x34x34)
S7, S7, S7, Any, Any = 31,212 (3x3x3x34x34)
S8, S8, S8, Any, Any = 55,488 (4x3x4x34x34)
S9, S9, S9, Any, Any = 73,984 (4x4x4x34x34)
S10, S10, S10, Any, Any = 73,984 (4x4x4x34x34)

401,132 totalx20 lines = 8,022,640

Any 2 scatters or more

353,736 (3x3x34x34x34) * 3 because scatter

353,736 totalx10 = 3,537,360 * Multiply by 10 possible 2 of a kind combinations on 5 reels

Total winning combinations (note most of these return much lower than bet)

10,219,040
01,202,240
08,022,640
03,537,360

22,981,280 TOTAL

Total possible combinations 45,435,424 (34x34x34x34x34)

22,981,280 in 45,435,424 chance of any spin returning more than zero (1.977* negligibly better than an even chance)

Probability of 50 complimentary spins returning zero = (1/2)^50 = 1,125,899,906,842,624 actually that is calculated at even

money and the odds are actually worse.

To give that number some meaning lets assume that 10,000 people play this offer each and every day, thats 3 million 560

thousand every year. How long before we can expect someone to complain they won zero?
31,626,401 Years! That is over 31 Million years LOL.

I would be surprised if there are no mistakes in my calculations though as I did them manually so if you spot any feel free to

chime in and we can recalculate.

OMG!!!!!!!!

Nothing to tell...im so happy that it was not my money, but still feeling a little ripped.
Or maybe im feeling special lol i can say that i am 1 in 187897987987897 LOL.
Maybe someone from ladbrokes can explain this????

 

[Rusty]

Yes you were truly blessed.
I also suffered a bout of dyslexia when I stated there were 356 days in a year - never mind I can't be bothered editing it now.

 

[De Beuker]

Thanks for your effort Rusty!

Funny how close your calculation comes to my personal experience that every 2nd spin gives at least some return.

For me this is solid proof that the games are not as random as they pretend they are.
Either the game was broken or its rigged. Simple.
I'm sure that if something similar had happened with Blackjack (like losing 50 hands in a row without even a single push) HELL would have broken lose.

I'm also sure that if something similar had happened on Rival software even more hell would have broken lose.

But its Microgaming, AND its a slotgame, so I guess they'll get away with it.
In Microgaming We Trust.

10.000 people spinning 24/7 for 31 MILLION years... WTF are we talking about here?!?


Edit: Simmo, you compared the odds to hitting a jackpot.
The odds of hitting a jackpot on TS1 (5xThor) are 1/3.600.000
So by the time you run into an event like this, you should have hit around 90.000 jackpots.
The odds are not even in the same universe.

 

[Rusty]

Thanks for your effort Rusty!

Funny how close your calculation comes to my personal experience that every 2nd spin gives at least some return.

For me this is solid proof that the games are not as random as they pretend they are.
Either the game was broken or its rigged. Simple.
I'm sure that if something similar had happened with Blackjack (like losing 50 hands in a row without even a single push) HELL would have broken lose.

I'm also sure that if something similar had happened on Rival software even more hell would have broken lose.

But its Microgaming, AND its a slotgame, so I guess they'll get away with it.
In Microgaming We Trust.

10.000 people spinning 24/7 for 31 MILLION years... WTF are we talking about here?!?

Yeah but that is according to my mental arithmetic and that has been known to go awry and I did base the final figure on 356 days a years.

Still, you made nice guesstimate I think.

I do think it is obvious that this was an extraordinary event.
Absolute proof for me would be if that feat were repeated on the same offer.
Barring that some statistical analysis of those that played these free spins that showed a pattern of below average returns.

However, I am certain the slot was not rigged to pay out zero though this statistical aberration (abomination?) may have been a side effect of the weighting going awry because the RTP was set below a certain thresh-hold. (a bug in other words)
Pure speculation on my part though.

EDIT.

I have noticed my calculations were incorrect at the end of my post and not only the 356 days a year mistake. (I rushed the end analogy, sorry)
What does this mean, well it means that if my calculations are correct this event was actually much more unlikely than I originally thought.

1,125,899,906,842,624 which is the probability of the event occuring - divided by 3,650,000 which is the number of attempts made at the 50 spins in one year with ten thousand people playing the promo each day.

How many years does that make that we can expect such a probability to occur in.

308,465,727 Years.
So actually well over 300 million years LOL

Just for fun (The figure is meaningless really) that is 56,294,995,342,131,200 spins

Wonder if that would be a big enough sample size?

Another fun fact is that you would on average pick all 6 winning lottery numbers scooping the jackpot (UK 49 balls 6 picks, almost 14, million to one to hit all 6 numbers) over 80 Million times before pulling off this feat again.
Fair to say it was rather unlikely event.

I will sleep on this and see if I have made any silly mistakes tomorrow.

 

[Miss_Token]

***Information upgrade***

Hi everyone i want to make a upgrade to all this.

Today i receive a email from aspinalls (in spanish) offer me to enter to a free tourney (it was a generic marketing mail).
Of course i wrote back that i had ask for close my account because of the "50 free spins dead in a row". They ask me that maybe it was a problem with the software and that i need to re-install. They give me the 50 free spins again.
I DIDNT ASK FOR THIS FREE SPINS, indeed, i had unistall this casino...

I have good luck (with 3 bonus rounds in this 50 free spins)
Expired Image

Then i went to play (with that 18 bucks) to dolphins coast, and i think that in the spin number 30 i won a BIG WIN for 151 bucks.


Expired Image

I have a lot of thoughts about this, but the first is that aspinalls give a solution and this situation gave a good turn for me (im still have a lot to playtrough)
Everyone can make his own opinion. Im just came here to make this upgrade.

 

[De Beuker]

Thats nice of them, congrats on the win!

Now, if anyone can explain to me how a 100% TRULY RANDOM slotgame can produce 50 dead spins in a row (and God knows how much more if she would have had 100 free spins) because of a SOFTWARE ERROR i'd be delighted.

 

[winnington]

Why would MG or a licensee rig free spins of all things?

It doesn't make sense. Promotional free spins like this are supposed to be used to make someone want to deposit and play. To rig free spins, which are almost always at minimum denomination/minimum credits per line makes no sense, since it would actually make people not want to deposit.

I'd be more likely to believe there was a conspiracy if it happened after depositing, or only happened when increasing bet size, or something of that nature.

Clearly, either something extremely extraordinary happened, or there was an error on the back end of the system (maybe the same dead spin was sent over and over?) but I really don't believe anything was "rigged" here.

 

[vinylweatherman]

It was the CASINO that brought up "software error". Given the astronomical probabilities calculated for this sequence ocurring naturally, this DOES merit investigation.

18 bucks from THREE bonus rounds during free spins isn't impressive either. You are lucky to get ONE bonus round (it's 1 in 166 chance or thereabouts) in 50 spins.

Now if this happens AGAIN, with it's one in 300 million year probability if we all play Avalon for the rest of time, serious questions need to be asked about whether these offers really ARE genuine spins on a slot, or a predetermined comp that can be zero, that is played out on a "special" version of the game loaded temporarily into the lobby to provide "eye candy".

The 1 in 300 million year calculation assumes that these were 50 independent spins on an unweighted Avalon slot game. It would be meaningless if the free spin offers do NOT work like this.

 

[all4greed]

They ask me that maybe it was a problem with the software and that i need to re-install.

So you had a version that allowed for 50 spins to not pay anything? What a strange statement.

 

[Rusty]

It was the CASINO that brought up "software error". Given the astronomical probabilities calculated for this sequence ocurring naturally, this DOES merit investigation.

18 bucks from THREE bonus rounds during free spins isn't impressive either. You are lucky to get ONE bonus round (it's 1 in 166 chance or thereabouts) in 50 spins.

Now if this happens AGAIN, with it's one in 300 million year probability if we all play Avalon for the rest of time, serious questions need to be asked about whether these offers really ARE genuine spins on a slot, or a predetermined comp that can be zero, that is played out on a "special" version of the game loaded temporarily into the lobby to provide "eye candy".

The 1 in 300 million year calculation assumes that these were 50 independent spins on an unweighted Avalon slot game. It would be meaningless if the free spin offers do NOT work like this.

I don't believe that this can be a preset amount awarded as comps and represented as a random game because they certainly would not award zero.

The only theory that makes sense to me is that the RTP of the slots can be altered and during the comp period or perhaps specifically for comp play it was lowered considerably causing this extreme result.
That may still mean this was a very unlikely event but perhaps much more likely than if the RTP was 95% and no weighting were used.

It is not unlikely that comp play would be set a lower RTP because the idea of the comps is not to give you a rewarding experience but to get you logged back into the casino.

One more way to look at the 50 blank spins at 20 lines is to consider it is the same as playing 1 line and hitting zero for 1,000 consecutive spins on a slot that has wild symbols and pays for 2 of a kind (forgetting scatter wins).

Does not seem plausible does it?

I agree it warrants further investigation.

I wonder if the Op - Miss Token -would be good enough to take screenshots of the playlog so each spin is visually represented - a lot of hassle I know - but it could be very helpful in analysing what may of occurred.

 

[Miss_Token]

I don't believe that this can be a preset amount awarded as comps and represented as a random game because they certainly would not award zero.

The only theory that makes sense to me is that the RTP of the slots can be altered and during the comp period or perhaps specifically for comp play it was lowered considerably causing this extreme result.
That may still mean this was a very unlikely event but perhaps much more likely than if the RTP was 95% and no weighting were used.

It is not unlikely that comp play would be set a lower RTP because the idea of the comps is not to give you a rewarding experience but to get you logged back into the casino.

One more way to look at the 50 blank spins at 20 lines is to consider it is the same as playing 1 line and hitting zero for 1,000 consecutive spins on a slot that has wild symbols and pays for 2 of a kind (forgetting scatter wins).

Does not seem plausible does it?

I agree it warrants further investigation.

I wonder if the Op - Miss Token -would be good enough to take screenshots of the playlog so each spin is visually represented - a lot of hassle I know - but it could be very helpful in analysing what may of occurred.

I will do that if you can explain me how.... i learn fast

 

[Seventh777]

I will do that if you can explain me how.... i learn fast

I hopefully have made this easier to understand for you (with pictures lol)

Old Attachment (Invalid)

The info Rusty needs is the reel positions per spin, which appear when you click on view, hope this helps.

 

[Seventh777]

I don't believe that this can be a preset amount awarded as comps and represented as a random game because they certainly would not award zero.

The only theory that makes sense to me is that the RTP of the slots can be altered and during the comp period or perhaps specifically for comp play it was lowered considerably causing this extreme result.
That may still mean this was a very unlikely event but perhaps much more likely than if the RTP was 95% and no weighting were used.

It is not unlikely that comp play would be set a lower RTP because the idea of the comps is not to give you a rewarding experience but to get you logged back into the casino.

One more way to look at the 50 blank spins at 20 lines is to consider it is the same as playing 1 line and hitting zero for 1,000 consecutive spins on a slot that has wild symbols and pays for 2 of a kind (forgetting scatter wins).

Does not seem plausible does it?

I agree it warrants further investigation.

I wonder if the Op - Miss Token -would be good enough to take screenshots of the playlog so each spin is visually represented - a lot of hassle I know - but it could be very helpful in analysing what may of occurred.

Just a thought, I wonder if the slots used in tournaments have different settings as such, I think anyone whom has played Tomb Raider, Loaded, Ladies Night, TS1 and Avalon to name but a few, will nearly all agree they play a whole lot different when using real money, and if so then using a slot configured for tournaments for free spins may yield some erratic returns.

Not that i`m saying tourney slots could be configured to - say, give you a feature right at the end of your go, or increase in coinage with each rebuy until you hit that soft cap needed to have a chance before wasting continues etc, etc, nope, not saying anything like that happens lol.;o

 

[Rusty]

Thanks Seventh777 that was a very helpful post.

Miss_Token Seventh is right that what I really want is the reel stop positions for all 5 reels on each spin. You don't have to take screenshots as you can work the stop positions out for yourself by referring to KasinoKing's post earlier in this thread which lists all the reel stop positions and explains how each symbol is represented.
It may actually be quicker for you just to take screenshots but don't post them here they would take up too much space - instead PM me and I will give you an email to send them to.

It is still a very laborious task I am afraid
It is up to you if you want to devote the time to it - nobody would think any the less of you if you didn't give up your time on such a boring project and we can't be sure the results will reveal any more than we already know so don't feel that you need to do this.

 

[Seventh777]

Thanks Seventh777 that was a very helpful post.

Yw, I think we`ve scared her off though, I have that effect on woman.