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Hi All,
We've seen a lot of people from cm join up over the last few days, and with
our (to few) slot machines being of the 'high to very high' variance type, I
think this is a good time to try and shed some light on to the nature of
machines like this, and how you, as a player can make sure to get what you
expect out of it.
First off, a tiny introduction explaining some of the terminology seems
appropriate. In statistics in general, two numbers are considered the most
important to describe a 'sample' or collection of for example winamounts.
Those two numbers are the average and the variance.
These two numbers give a good representation of any collection of numbers,
and are therefor also commonly used to describe how casino games pay. Now
how is this important to the player? Well, as far as average goes .. that's
fairly obvious. The average payout will determine if on the long term you will
win or loose. Unfortunately - there's some bad news here .. all casino games
are designed to have an average below 100% .. the closer to 100% the
better for the player, and if you find one that's above 100%, let me know !
So the first number will give you the average on the long term, and the
second number, the variance, will tell you how long that term is. In
mathematical terms, the variance tells you how far, on average, each of the
results is from the long term payout percentage. So, if we have a machine
with a variance of zero, that means that there is no difference between a
single spin and the average .. so that's a machine that pays out e.g. 0.95 for
every 1 you put in .. not very exciting.
Worded from a player point of view .. high variance means that you can still
be ahead on the casino even after many spins. Eventually everyone will get to
the average, but the higher the variance, the longer this can take..
Now, there's more to it if you're into multiline video slots. Especially the free
spin ones. It is important to know that these machines have a large part of
their payout percentage in the feature. So a session that does not hit the
feature will never be a 'happy' one ..
The good news however is, that it is very easy to calculate the odds on this,
and based on that you can choose a betsize that reflects the expectations
you have. There's only a tiny little bit of math involved, so please bear with
me
As an example, we will use a feature that on average hits 1 in 160 spins. (this
is very close to our supersuits and tut slots). For every spin you have a
chance of 1/160 to hit the feature, so you have 159/160 to not hit the
feature.
Furthermore, we will start with a $100 bankroll, and examine how our choice
of betsize influences the chances of not hitting the feature..
In the first sample, we'll bet $1 ... so we can be sure of 100 spins .. the odds
of not hitting the feature in 100 spins are given by
(159/160) to the power of 100 = (159/160)^100 = 0.5342 = 53.42%
So, with 100 spins .. we have 53% chance of not hitting the feature .. if
however we lower our betsize to 1/4th ($.25) and get in 400 spins ..
(159/160) to the power of 400 = (159/160)^400 = 0.0814 = 8.14%
The sharp reader now notices that 8.14% is not 53.42%/4 .. betting $1 will
make on average 1 in 2 sessions 'loosing sessions', whereas with a bet of $0.5
only 1 in 12.2 sessions (on average) will be one not hitting the feature. With
a high part of the payout in freespins, you want to make sure not to set
yourself up with to little spins ..
Some players are fine with one in two sessions being really low and the other
one really good, others prefer to always get more play for their money. As a
player you can never increase the actual variance of a machine, but all you
need to do to lower it is make sure you get more spins for the same budget,
and thus play lower bets ..
It is up to all of you to decide what your personal preference is, and I just
hope that this post clarifies things a bit for those that did not yet have a
clear view on variance.
In closing, I'll share the exact nrs of the feature frequencies for 3Dice so that
you can do the maths and know what your odds are ..
Tut-Ankh-Amun : 1 in 158
SuperSuits : 1 in 155
Happy Valley : 1 in 135
Squirrel Pike : 1 in 48
As a last word of good advice to new 3dice players, join and play in the
tournaments, they are free, last long, allow all games, very exciting, and the
perfect way to get a good a 'feel' about the games. (oh and they pay real
money)
Good Luck everyone,
Enzo.
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Originally Posted by 3Dice
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