Thread: Probabilities
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Old 20th January 2006, 11:10 PM
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Simmo! Where's that reel data...

No one's commented on my math yet?! I need some math lessons. I've just finished a major undertaking for work, maybe now I can find the time to dig into this further, and start learning about calculating probabilities. It's always been my weak point (or rather, one of the many)..but very interesting. It's a quantum world out there..

It's not impossible to figure out the reel setup from just spinning the reels enough times and recording what's on screen.

Anyway, if we know the symbol order for each reel, then we can easily calculate (or someone can..) the expected return % of an unweighted slot, such as I believe (this is where I disagree with Simmo!) Thunderstruck is. I guess in the end it's pretty obvious that it would fall into the standard 93-96% for MG slots, so maybe it's a waste of time, but interesting anyway.

Here's an example of a progressive slot that's been analyzed by just playing and recording what you see, the above mentioned method. The page is in Finnish, but if you scroll down you'll see the symbols, the probabilities of winning combinations, and on the bottom right the "cracked" virtual reel order. LINK

Just learned in fact that paf.fi (the Aland online casino) has a slot where with optimal strategy the payout% is 99.64%. It's a classic fruit slot with a "hold" option. I think that must be the best payout % of a slot machine anywhere! Also their progressive Jackpot machine "Fisherman's Jackpot" is unique, because you win the progressive on any played line, and therefore the odds are "only" about 1:2,400,000. And the machine's expected return is above 100% once the progressive is at 20,000 or more (estimated).

Actually, I think I'll post a review of this casino in a separate thread, it's an interesting concept.

Cheers,
SM
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