Quote:
Originally Posted by Rusty
I probably played a few 1000 spins so not a massive sample although the features were very scarce and always payed poorly.
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A few thousand spins on a high variance slot is no where near enough data to estimate the payout of a casino. For example, I just ran 1000 sims of 3000 hands on All Aces. In some of the sims, the player was down >800 betting units after the 3000 hands. This corresponds to a payout of ~70% on a game that has an expected payout of 99.92%. However, in some of the sims the player hit big wins and was up >2000 betting units -- a ~170% payout. The low 70% payouts and high 170% payouts averaged out to produce a net average payout of 99.9% over all of the 1000 sims.
The expected range of return is greater for bonus slots with a higher variance than
VP, so you are expected to have some payouts of well below 70% and some payouts of well above 170%. A payout of 50% may be normal for a few thousand spins on a high variance slot when you do not hit a big win. And a payout of 200%+ may be normal when you do hit some big wins.