It doesn't make sense that they'd be weighted the way you suggest. It's too easy for a player to just cash out as soon as they hit a win.
What would make more sense is that you'd only hit a win after X number of spins - when you've already spent the value of the win.
Additionally, it's pretty much a given that if you don't play full bet on all paylines, you are playing worse odds. This is doubly true of progressive jackpots, which almost uniformly don't give you a crack at the progressive if you're not playing all paylines.
Basically, you gotta play max bet every round to get the odds they promise. Of course, then you're spending big bucks each spin so you can't get into enough spins to hit anything good.
Now I remember why I tend to play in play mode...
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