Quote:
Originally Posted by bpb
I didn't give an opinion about anything
The chance of the 2nd series of 20 reds is identical to the chance of the 1st series of 20 reds. You can't say that you accept the fact that wheels have no memory unless you also accept that the probabilities are equal.
Chance of 20 reds in a row from an arbitrary starting point = (18/38)^20
Chance of 20 reds in a row after 20 reds = (18/38)^20
chance of 20 reds in a row after 20 blacks = (18/38)^20
Chance of 20 reds in a row after 100 reds = (18/38)^20
Chance of 20 reds in a row after 100 blacks = (18/38)^20
Notice a pattern?
It doesn't matter how improbable the previous series of events was, the fact is, THEY'VE ALREADY HAPPENED!
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Yes, but he said a series of 20 reds after a series of 20 reds already occurred. That would bring it to (18/30)^40. Not impossible, but nearly.